The College Football Season has officially begun!
Tony Miller and his team did a great job on Friday putting up 165 GOYs, and by all accounts all went smoothly and the betting action was fast and furious! My initial thoughts on everything.
1. I HATED having to miss the openers
There simply aren't enough hours in the day, and with MLB, WNBA, and NFL prep, I decided I simply didn't have the time to be ready this year to bet into the numbers.
2. From a style perspective, if I was a bookmaker, I personally would fold to any pot sized bet.
A style difference here, as the Golden Nugget and I will wind up in the same place on the number, however, I'm moving 2 points on every limit bet I take opening day (maybe 1.5 on key numbers). I firmly believe that ANY bookmaker that puts up this amount of Virgin product is going to likely get the worst of it on "openers day", as the Pros will be firing in bets, and IMO WILL win. However, that's fine because, once you make the line adjustments, then you will earn earn earn all summer long, AND get great PR.
By example, if Bryan Leonard bets Michigan +16 against me, I don't care that Ohio State can win the AFC North, I'm moving to 14. (If someone then comes back on the Buckeyes -14,I will settle in at 15).
One can argue that the Golden Nuggest is basically taking a "2K" limit on their games, however, since by limiting it to 1k, but then moving modestly on the 1st pop, it's almost like a 2k limit, and that does make a lot of sense.
3. Be careful about conclusions about who "Vegas" likes
The money moves against Boise What does it mean? Does Vegas hate Boise? Maybe. However, you could also argue, Golden Nugget LOVES Boise. A lot of the initial moves are based just on THE GOLDEN NUGGET's opinions. They are bullish on Boise, and opened according..........if they had opened the Boise lines 7 points different, then the Pros would have bet ON Boise......
4. Ohio State is really good:
However, Pros don't care who is really good, they bet what they see is value. The Buckeyes opened -16 @ VTech, -19 @ PSU (down to 18), -14 vs. Mich St (down to -12.5), and -16 @ MIchigan (down to 13). The pros also HAMMERED the "Will Ohio State go 12-0 prop?" bombing in UNDER 11.5 wins, +200, +180 +160, +140!
Pretty much a no brainer here. Pros know 14 point favorites lose ALL THE TIME, and winning 4 such games looks easy, but in practice teams often fail..........not to mention, 30 point favorites lose also. Remember the year Ohio State had a juggernaut and lost laying over 30 vs Illinois?
5. The Golden Nugget deserves Accolades
NO EASY TASK putting up all these. I FIRMLY believe there is not a bookmaker in the world that can win "openers day" vs. the Pros on bets you take in the 1st 3 hours......hourly the Golden Nugget GETS IT. They will take the worst of it for a short 3 hour window, and then earn earn earn all summer with bets, and great PR. THIS is what makes Vegas great, and help make Vegas THE Sports Betting Capital of the World......