The Yankees were a miss as the Sunday free play. I’m siding with some home chalk for the Monday comp.
INDIANS (Anderson) @ RAYS (Karns)
Take: RAYS -130
Cody Anderson makes his second big league start for the Indians, and Cleveland fans are hoping he can duplicate his very impressive debut. That’s certainly possible, but a couple of factors have me believing it’s not likely and that tonight’s result won’t be as pleasant.
I’m a believer in routines for pitchers, mostly because they seem to be. There is all kinds of data that refutes the belief that a team needs to put pitchers in roles. That’s the essence of the stathead argument against the need for predetermined closers. You won’t get any argument from me on the numbers, as they don’t lie. But there’s also not much doubt that if an entire group believes something to be true, then it is for them, even if it really isn’t. Big league bullpen denizens, the guys who actually do the pitching, are en masse firm believers that they require defined roles to succeed. Thus, contrary to actual evidence, it become a truism of sorts as the players themselves are simply convinced that this is the way it has to be.
Starting pitchers are also creatures of habit, and we have a situation tonight that could be an issue for rookie Cody Anderson. Great first game to be sure, but he hasn’t worked since and that means he’s now out of his routine with eight days between appearances. Don’t ask me why this is such a big deal. I’m not a major league pitcher. But the pitchers themselves hate it, and my opinion, for what it’s worth, is that this could mentally screw with a kid just called up more than a grizzled veteran.
There’s a less complex issue here as well. That’s the Indians offense, which arrives at the Slop in stone cold form. Cleveland scored zero runs in two games on Sunday. Maybe they can break out against Rays starter Nate Karns tonight. But Karns has been pitching decent ball for Tampa Bay and he’s turning out to be a solid middle of the rotation guy for the Rays.
The Rays figure to be a popular betting choice tonight and while they might have been undervalued earlier this season, I don’t think that’s the case currently. In other words, no real bargain to be had here in terms of the price. But I think it’s a favorable situation for the hosts, and I believe Anderson is a bounce candidate this evening. I’ll recommend the Rays as tonight’s free play.
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My 3* MLB Game of Month is loaded!