The Wednesday free play was a scratch with the Angels opting to change pitchers. Andrew Heaney got called up, and Matt Shoemaker was bumped to Friday when the Mariners come to Anaheim. A reminder that I recommend listing pitchers for all baseball wagers, so if one of the starters gets scratched, there’s simply no action. Here’s the Thursday comp.
DIAMONDBACKS (de la Rosa) @ ROCKIES (de la Rosa)
Take: DIAMONDBACKS +120
Here it is, de la Rosa vs. de la Rosa as the Diamondbacks and Rockies close out their series at Coors. Rubby will be throwing for the road team, while Jorge gets the call for Colorado.
This is a great debate type of game from a handicapping vantage point. Data vs. trends is very much in play here and this is one game where the number crunchers will be firing on one side while the trend players will be going the other way.
The trends are crystal clear as Jorge de la Rosa has some of the most dominant ledgers one will ever see at Coors, in terms of the team wins and losses when he pitches. It’s really kind of amazing to note that the Rockies are 51-13 when JDLR takes the mound at Coors, and that includes 10-1 against the Diamondbacks.
But the flip side here is the current data, both for the Diamondbacks and for their de la Rosa. RDLR is putting together some pretty impressive under the radar numbers, and it’s really starting to look like the Red Sox mad a big mistake deeming him excess baggage.
The present team stats also indicate the Diamondbacks to be the side here. I won’t get into the specifics as to how I come up with my lines for each game. But my methodology produced a line of Rockies -106 for this game. Compare that with the line that was showing as I posted this piece and you’ll see there’s value to be had on the visitors.
Believe me, there’s no such thing as comfortable when it comes to going against Jorge de la Rosa at Coors. But for me this comes down to my being more of a believer in data than trends, even when said trends are mighty daunting. Barring lineup absences of note for the road team, I’ll be looking to take the price with the Diamondbacks here.
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MLB Grinder: 2* Best Bet for Thursday Afternoon