Off another sweep (Tuesday 3* GOW Winner is here). The free play will be posted tomorrow when I know what it is - but I do know some people use this information - so:
Free play:
908 CHC (+110) Pinnacle vs 907 LOS
I was a little surprised to see the Cardinals with Martinez at only -130. Perhaps the books/bettors are finally adjusting to no Holliday/Adams, and the fact they lost twice to the Twins and to the Phillies on Sunday. I don't like the way their pen has been the last week or so - and Martinez has had four straight game of 100+ pitches. The Fish haven't seen him (save Dee Gordon). Urena has been a ground ball pitcher and St. Louis hasn't seen him - so this had F5 under written on it, perhaps. I thought about Miami here, but their pen has been worse than the Cardinals, by far - lately.
Much to my surprise this is only the fourth road start for Grienke this season. Yes, he shutout Texas, but let's not forget who the Rangers do not have in their lineup, and many of them never saw Grienke before. The Cubs HAVE seen him and had some success off if him. Hammels' WHIP is close to Grienke's 0.94 number - and he just doesn't walk many. If he can pitch through Kendrick and Eithier, two guys that have owned him (in a reasonable enough sample to concern me) I can see taking the Cubs here, since their pen has outperformed the Dodgers' of late. It all depends on what happens Monday night between these two.
We successfully fade the Mets all three games in Atlanta - and now they have their fourth (or fifth) best starter in - so you'd think they'd lose again. However, it's the Brewers who have been as inept. You never know what your going to get from Fiers, so it might be tough to go there. But, if they are going to win they've (this season) had better success (7-7) against left handed starters. And, most of the Mets have limited or no exposure to Fiers. Niese can keep the ball on the ground more often than not - but I go back to "it's the Mets on the road who are 10-24 away this season. Yes, sooner or later, but I can't bet on the "due theory". Brewers, probably - at least F5.
I thought we could get away with backing Kendrick at home last start, but I was wrong. I said at the beginning of the season that he'd get killed at Coors (big time flyball pitcher) and with that in mind, I just won't take the Rockies. Even as attractive home underdogs, which we like. We were on Arizona in Anderson's last outing when they beat the Angels, but he can give up flyballs and the Rockies hit him pretty hard early this season. This could be the polygonic Coors Field over.
Price has thrown six straight games allowing two earned runs or less. Looking further - he didn't face the stiffest competition a couple of times (White Sox/Oakland) but two weeks ago he threw a complete game shutout against these Indians. Normally we like to go the other way in these quick rematches - and we might - but there aren't many Cleveland hitters with much success against Price. Salazar was hit pretty hard by the Cubs last time out - and has indeed allowed three earned runs in three of his last five games. However, he pitched SO badly against the Cubs he only threw 85 pitches. I still like the Tigers here. They're just the better team. Maybe at least F5 because I don't really trust their bullpen and I don't think they do, either.
Joe Kelly has been much maligned, and rightfully so. Might problem with him is that he's really only had decent games against sub-par offenses, does not pitch deep, and has four straight 100+ pitch games. With all those things added up, that's enough to not take Boston (for me, anyways). Boston has hit Ubaldo, for the most part and over the years, well. He hasn't been pitching very deep, either, so this may come down to bullpens. Baltimore's has been very good lately, while Boston's has not. I thought about the over here - it's sitting at 9 with a wind straight out to CF.
They're certainly giving a lot of respect to Archer, making him -160 over Toronto. Granted, at home he's at his best, but it IS Toronto. I'd be inclined to take the Jays RL if they're going to make it that attractive.
I shall retrieve this tomorrow -