Won our free on Monday afternoon as the "not sharp" people on the over in Petco cashed. And we cashed another Triple on what was what we refer to as the "unpopular" side - doing the work.
We have, through Thursday, an All-Access through 2015. Broken down, it's a great investment. And, Spartan has one for the remainder of the year as well - and I know he made a fortune in the NFL last season.
916 KAN / 915 MILOVER 7.5 Pinnacle |
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Analysis: Perhaps another against the grain bet - but when you're seeing things well you do it. It's one of "those" bets that I will me MORE pissed if it goes over and I DO NOT play it than I will be if Blanton throws a shutout to the Royals' pen and Fiers is his occasional unhittable self. However, DH for the Brewers, doesn't matter if Gomez plays or not - Parra hitting well - weather pattern solid (fairly warm - how good of shape is Blanton) - Clint Fagan reasonable HP umpire (he has had under games but looking at them they were weak offenses or great pitchers) and so forth and so on.
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Corriea was no joke against the Pirates after spending two months in the Minors. Ubaldo hasn't been "crushed" yet, but two straight 100+ pitch count games that he didn't pitch past the fifth inning is a red flag for me. Phillies RL (or ML, really) is not out of the question.
I just cannot get myself to back Zimmerman - and I do like what Andriese has done - but he's more than likely not pitching deep and I don't like the Rays pen on the road. Rays F5 perhaps.
Can't take Pineda at what is clearly going to be a premium price. Urena CAN keep the ball in the park - but how over whelmed he is (he's 23) pitching in Yankee Stadium could be the variable. I could be convinced to take the Rays F5 at some sort of +.5 number - and the under.
I had an immediate lean to the over in Toronto - and not so much because of Niese and the Jays against LHP - but the fac that when Hutchinson is off, he's up. Roof ought to be wide open - but the total might be inflated to begin with.
OK - so Joe Kelly isn't very good and Wood gets the ball up at times. I like the Braves but maybe F5 because their bullpen has been a mess all year. Not sure how both teams don't score here.
I guess the instinctive thing to do with Price and Volquez pitching is to take the under. Perhaps so - but I lean over. Price has always been a flyball pitcher (when he's not striking people out) and in this park that could hurt. Without a DH - it might be tough to take Detroit - but we'll see.
I've been on the wrong side of Fiers almost every one of his outings. Whenever I try to fade Blanton he is a freak. I suppose you'd have to like the over - but not the best over venue. Blanton isn't likely to pitch deep - and the Brewers now get the DH.
We've been fading Locke most of his outings and he's either been very good or very bad. That last game might have him a bit over valued, seeing as how his great effort was at home against the Phillies. With that in mind - it's tough to take Danks - he's been getting torched. But, lack of familiarity might warrant a F5 +.5 bet on Chicago.
Obviously Martinez will get all the respect in Minnesota - so I'd look to take the Twins RL somehow. If the Cardinals have a weakness it's against LHP - they're "only" .500 there. And we do know that the Twins at home have over achieved. One would have to lean under - and for the F5 I would agree - (lack of familiarity on both sides) but both pens can be had. The Twins played their ass of in St. Louis Tuesday - tough to fade that effort, but we'll see.
That total in Colorado with Kendrick and Oberholtzer will be a big one. Maybe not big enough. Warm with a helping breeze that you might no need anyways. It's probably a bet (if you like the over) that's got to be made very early or very late. I cannot take Kendrick in that park. After Mondays' game in Houston I am a little surprised the haven't grabbed 10.5 already.
Chase Anderson has been another feast or famine pitcher, but better hitting teams have had success with him. It seems that most of his great outings are against lesser offenses. Santiago has been giving up the long ball - two in each of his last two starts. Perhaps the polygonic over, at least for the F5. Lean Halos a bit.
Despaigne might be decent in a big park like Oakland's - with tons of foul ground to boot. He pitched great against the Dodgers/Kershaw last time out. Chavez never seems to get burnt badly, so this might be an under game - but Chavez seems to have been somewhat vulnerable lately. Maybe the Padres RL if the price is right. Oakland has to be feeling it after blowing the lead on the road yet winning in the ninth. Under, perhaps.
I doubt I want much to do with Bumgarner against Felix. Almost impossible to fade Felix at home - we did fade him last week when Houston lit him up - which may give him/Seattle a BIT more value - but assuming neither one makes a mistake and it comes down to bullpens - we (I) like the Giants here. And after seeing just how badly the Mariners executed in San Francisco Monday afternoon - there is no way I can get behind that, especially not at -150. They may win - but I am not betting on that team.
Probably not enough gonads to take Texas/Wandy - but he DOES have sneaky good games. I might look at this over - we'll see. I do like Kershaw games "over" only because he's such a great hitting pitcher. Plenty of time.