Some quick notes on how the new NFL Extra points should impact the league:
1. In good weather we can expect kickers to miss just under 5% of the time. With 5-6 touchdowns in a game, that would results in a total that should be 1/4 point lower.
2. In suspect weather and wind, go ahead and make the miss rate 10%, and the impact of the total will be 1/2 point.
3. In suspect weather, expect some of the smarter coaches to go for 2 much more often.
The overall effect will be very minor on the totals, but where it WILL have a major impact is the distribution of scoring. Games will land on key numbers slightly less often and the value to getting on key sides of 3 and 7, (and key totals of 41) will be somewhat reduced.
Laying -2.5-110 and taking +3-110 in the NFL has always been slightly profitable. I no longer expect this skinny middle to be a positive expectation. (It's value had already diminished in recent years due to higher scoring). Look for aggressive bookmakers like the South Point to REALLY benefit from this rule, as they don't deal money lines on their spreads, but just bounce back and forth from 2.5 to 3 (and 3.5) always charging -110. On games lined at 2.75 (-2.5-120) look for them to just go back and forth, write a blizzard of tickets and make money doing so as they won't get sided enough to make up for all the exra volume they will write!
On the capping front, Vegas got an MLB game wrong today, with the wrong team favored, and we FIRE on it now!
http://bit.ly/1dO56ZY