I HAVE to give South Point HUGE credit for dealing the rest of the tourney on sides at -105 vig. How big a deal is this? VERY!
I bettor needs to hit 52.4% to break even at -110. AT -105, it drops to a bit over 51.2%. Bottom line, if you can pick more winners than losers, you win betting -105.
What will be the impact to the South Point? I am guessing it might increase their handle 50-100% to do so. (it SHOULD increase it 500%, but that is a story for another day). However, even at 100%, it is a short term loser for the book, in that the hold percentage will go down by more than half.
The theoretical hold percentage for the house on straight bets is 4.54% (They win $10 if they book two $110 bets on opposite sides). In practice, realistically they would shoot for 3.5-4% due to line moves/middle risks/some wise guy action, etc.
We would expect -105 pricing to knock this down by about 1/2, right? Actually, MORE than 1/2 since the -105 suddenly attracts some of the sharpest bettors out there.....guys you have NEVER SEEN before suddenly descend on your Casino......the Casino Monte Lago 10 years ago found that out when they went to -105 in football.......and their hold on straight bets went from +4 percent to a MINUS percent as the wise guys had a feeding frenzy there.
Nothing like that will happen at the South Point as these final 16 numbers are tight, and will manage the risk well. The bottom line is that I expect them to hold maybe 1.5% so even with double the volume, they still will make a little less money.
However, it's not about making money every day. It's about giving the customers a great deal sometimes. And THAT is what the South Point if famous for, from great Contests in the Sports Book, to 75 cent hot dogs, to 2.99 Breakfast Late Night Specials.
I love the South Point.........they do things the Old School Right Way!
On the capping front, it is fair to say I lost my way this past week spending too much time with the tourney, and getting away from the cash cow that has been the NBA for me, 98-65-3 YTD +31.85 units. Tonight, I have two NBA plays so far, an NBA total, AND a suggested play on a 2nd half NBA total. Let's roll!
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