Tips for Betting the 2015 NCAA Tournament
Next to the Super Bowl, college basketball’s NCAA Tournament is the biggest sports betting event of the year in Las Vegas. Sports books are jam-packed through opening weekend as avid fans from all over the country flock here for the experience of a lifetime.
Sports books love the energy…and all the money they make from casual bettors who may not always realize that they’re taking the worst of it in the markets!
Here are some keys I will be using when handicapping the Big Dance.
*Media-hyped conferences and teams are generally over-priced in the line. Sportsbooks charge a premium on these teams because the public wants to bet them. Compounding matters, those teams are often overrated anyway! Think about the ACC last year. Conference champion Virginia was a #1 seed that couldn’t get past the Sweet 16. Duke and Syracuse were both #3 seeds who fell early. Duke lost to #14 seed Mercer the first time they took the floor. Syracuse lost to #11 Dayton in its second game. Public bettors were paying a premium on what were already bad lines once it was realized that the ACC as a whole was overrated.
TIP: Look for great spots to fade media darlings. Study unheralded entries to see if you can discover potential Cinderellas who have the talent and experience to succeed.
*Three-point heavy teams can be over-priced in the line. This is because they post such big numbers in their victories that they seem like super-teams. Well, they are when the bombs are falling. But, when those shots are clanking off the rim, three-point heavy teams turn mortal very quickly. It’s much harder to string together good shooting games on neutral courts in tournament style basketball than it is during the regular season. Filling your office pool brackets with trey-heavy teams is a recipe for heartbreak. Backing them against the point-spread does the same thing. When you win…you’ll cover by a lot of points. That doesn't help you if you’re only winning 40-45% of these bets.
TIP: Avoid trey-heavy offenses. Look to bet on balanced teams who can score inside and out, and who play well on both sides of the floor. If you study the stats closely, you’ll notice that many trey-heavy teams are hiding fairly soft defenses that tend to get exposed in March.
*The public tends to treat the tournament like roulette. By that, I mean that some want to bet “hot” teams who they think will keep playing well. Others want to bet “the due theory” if a team just survived a nail-biter and is in position to bounce back strong. The thing about roulette is…everybody loses! You can’t beat roulette over time because the 0 and 00 on the board take everyone’s money. You can’t beat the tournament playing “hot” or “bounce back” teams because the vigorish eats away at bad strategies. Every NCAA tournament game is a chess match, not a wheel spin. Smart bettors handicap the chess match to find real edges that matter.
TIP: Focus on the strengths and weaknesses of each team (and head coach) and evaluate games accordingly. Hey, sometimes a team will look “hot” because their skill set is well-suited to tournament basketball (like Connecticut last season). But, the Huskies didn’t run the table because they were “hot.” They cut down the nets because great defense and guard play are proven advantages in the Dance! Chasing “hot” just puts you on teams who are about to crash and burn after playing a game or two over their heads. Focusing on strengths and weaknesses will help you top the needed win percentage to overcome vigorish.
To help you find teams who are best suited to win chess matches, I strongly recommend the following:
*Look for experienced point guards who can score and pass
*Look for rebounding teams, particularly defensive rebounding teams
*Look for head coaches who have consistently performed well in the Dance
*Look for teams who enjoy friendly travel/crowd scenarios
*Look for teams who were playing their best basketball in the last month of the season
Now, a list of characteristics for teams who are worst suited to win chess matches
*Fade offenses that are turnover prone, particularly those with inexperienced guards
*Fade poor rebounding teams, particularly those who struggle on the defensive end
*Fade head coaches who have a history of leaving the brackets earlier than expected
*Fade teams in awkward travel or “body clock” scenarios
*Fade teams who peaked in the first half of the season but struggled down the stretch
Smart handicappers will have done a lot of work researching these issues in advance of plucking down their money. If you’re serious about making money this month…you should attack that process yourself. Let the casual fans throw their money away on overpriced favorites or uninformed Cinderella hunches. Follow proven strategies to insure that you’re making smart bets so you make the most of March Madness!
Best of Luck to us all! - Scott Spreitzer.