(525) FLORIDA ATLANTIC at (526) WESTERN KENTUCKY
FREE PICK: (525) FLORIDA ATLANTIC +12
This has been a very difficult campaign for Florida Atlantic. The Owls have won just once in CUSA play and that doesn’t figure to change this evening as they try their luck at Western Kentucky.
But as bad as the bottom line is for FAU, this is not a team that’s shown any quit. Only five of the 13 league losses have been of the double digit variety. They’ve hung in for the most part, but the Owls just haven’t been able to find a way to win. The first meeting with the Hilltoppers was a good example, as FAU took the game to OT before losing by three.
Western Kentucky is not playing at a current level that justifies them as a big favorite. The Hilltoppers are on a four-game skid with the most recent defeat a real heartbreaker against rival Middle Tennessee State.
Even when the Hilltoppers were riding high in CUSA at 9-1, it wasn’t as if they were dominating the opposition. All but one of the conference wins have been by less than tonight’s line and that sole blowout was way back in the their league opener at the beginning of January.
One of the angles I prefer at the tail end of the regular season involves taking big numbers with what can only be called ugly underdogs. The actual play is against what I feel are overpriced favorites, teams with power ratings that are decidedly average or worse. Western Kentucky fits that theory and in their present form, this looks like a very heavy impost.
One can never tell when the white flag might get waved by a downtrodden dog. But based on the efforts that have been consistently turned in by the Owls, I believe they can at least compete with the heavily favored Hilltoppers tonight. I’ll take Florida Atlantic plus the points.
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