Free plays are now on a monster 75% (3-1) run, after the Terps got 'er done last night. Here's one that we like for Wednesday, inasmuch as road teams this time of year are not typically something I fall in love with.
We also have a 3* GOW going, which as always comes with as work as we can do on most of the card. We've only had one slight losing day in about ten days (odd parallel) and look to keep the winning going.
757 Davidson 3.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 758 Rhode Island |
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Analysis: I think this may well be the best number. If Davidson had a little better interior defense, this would be a bigger bet. Looking up and down the URI schedule, almost unanimously the teams that have given Rhode Island trouble have been the up tempo teams. They beat Fordham and Duquesne, as expected, but not by much. They lost to VCU at home, who play a similar style to Davidson, but obviously with a little better defense. They've played well of late, but against inferior competition. Davidson has won five straight, two of them on the road against good teams, and haven't lost by more than five in well over a month (at Richmond). This is a huge A-10 game in that these two are second and third behind VCU, but it's really only Davidson that has a shot at catching VCU since they still get them at home, whereas URI is done with the "other" Rams. Davidson is used to being in this position, i.e. playing for the post-season, which is always a bigger factor late in the season. Davidson has the length advantage, and what I like is that they don't turn the ball over nearly as much as URI does. As a quicker team, that's got fast-break points written all over it. The only way URI scores is inside, and again I go back to length. Davidson just beat G-Wash on the road, and G-Wash from a style standpoint is a mirror image of URI, only bigger. So, this is a situational play, but it's also a big matchup thing in that Davidson fares well against this style of team (slower/inside) and URI hasn't done well against faster/shooting teams. Nothing here but a last possession game, and if Davidson gets hot early, URI doesn't have the offense to come back in a hurry.
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