Here's my write-up for tonight's NC State - Virginia matchup, part of a STRONG four game card for myself and my clients tonight:
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Take NC State (#766)
First, don’t underestimate the impact of the Justin Anderson injury for Virginia. The Cavs are not a great offensive ballclub; relying on defense, veteran toughness and smarts as much as any other factors while winning 21 of their first 22 ballgames. Anderson is, quite simply, irreplaceable for this team. He’s hit 48% from three point range and 80% from the charity stripe while committing only 26 turnovers in nearly 650 minutes of play this year.
No one else on the team is even close to matching his three point shooting. For a team like Virginia that ISN”T loaded with future first round NBA draft choices, the loss of the only one they had is not a minor situation for Tony Bennett’s squad to overcome. Bennett: “We aren't going to be exactly the same. We don't have a replica to replace Justin.”
Secondly, this is the mother of all ‘bad spot’ games for the road favorite. Virginia is coming off games against Duke, North Carolina and Louisville; winning the last two after falling short against Duke in the latter stages. Bennett is clearly worried about a letdown here: “We learned a bit about ourselves. We showed some resiliency, but boy, I think if we make a big deal out of this, 'OK, we got through the gantlet,' and now you take a breath or relax — big mistake."
And thirdly, this is a great spot for NC State. They’ve seen the Cavs tough defense already this year in a spread covering loss in Charlottesville; getting a second look at Virginia here. While Virginia has been stepping up, game after game, the Wolfpack just got a full week off to prep exclusively for the Cavs. Head coach Mark Gottfried: “We’ve had some time off, which I think has probably been very good for our team. We played a lot of games in a short amount of time and so the week off I thought came at a good time. We’re anxious to play again, get back in it.” NC State is ‘live’ to pull off the outright upset here and the generous points provide a nice cushion for us if they don’t. Take NC State.