Super Bowl XLIX
Sunday, February 1, 2015
6:30 PM EST NBC TV
University of Phoenix, Glendale, AZ
New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks (P/47 ½ )
By Joe Gavazzi, Winning Sports Advice
This is the first of four articles I will author regarding this year’s Super Bowl. In this first article I will examine how the teams reached their Super Bowl berth in this year’s playoffs. It will be followed by a dissection of each team from a technical perspective, with a variety of point spread trends. In the second article I will examine the teams from a fundamental perspective, using a statistical analysis to dissect each club. The third article will be a situational look at factors that will likely influence this week’s game. Finally, in the fourth article I will draw conclusions for the point spread and over/under winner of the Super Bowl. Note that this year’s game should be played in balmy conditions, approaching 70 degrees with winds light and variable, under 10 mph.
New England entered the playoffs at 12-4 SU following a meaningless loss to Buffalo, as they had clinched home field throughout the playoffs in the previous game. In their opening playoff game, the Pats trailed Baltimore by 14 points twice, before storming back for a 35-31 victory. They carried over the momentum of that win the following week against an Indianapolis team that many thought had turned the corner with their victory at Denver the previous week. But, New England defeated QB Luck by 21 or more points for the fourth consecutive time in a 45-7 victory that saw New England outrush Indy 40/177 to 19/83. New England forced three turnovers and held the potent Colts’ offense to a total of 209 yards.
Seattle entered the playoffs on a 6 game winning streak. With a strong performance against a Carolina team that had played them in a competitive fashion for several previous meets, Seattle emerged with a 31-17 victory. The following week’s game against Green Bay would not be nearly the cake walk. We all know how teams do with a -3 or more net turnover margin in a contest. In their game against Green Bay, Seattle committed a whopping 5 turnovers, yet they survived the -3 net turnover with a 28-22 will-to-win, defensive-driven victory. They did what they do best, outrushing Green Bay 35/194 to 30/135. The defense held Green Bay to 306 yards. Though they did not get the cover (only 9% of NFL teams do if they have a -3 or more net TO margin), the 28-22 victory propelled them to the Super Bowl.
From a tech and trends point of view, we know the following about New England. The Patriots enter the game on a 12-2 SU, 9-5 ATS run, roughly corresponding to the return of WR Gronkowski. This is the sixth Super Bowl in 14 years for New England, but they have not won a Super Bowl in 10 years. New England has struggled in the playoffs in recent years, with a 4-11 ATS mark. Against fellow playoff teams, New England went 6-1 SU, outgaining those foes by an average of 60 YPG. When facing non-divisional foes, the Patriots were 10-2 SU, with an average margin of victory of 32-20. Finally, when playing on the road, New England went 5-3 SU. They will be playing their first game away from New England in 5 weeks.
From a tech and trends perspective, we can gleam the following about Seattle. Seattle enters as the hottest team in the NFL. The defending Champs have won 8 consecutive games by 6 or more points, going 7-1 ATS in the process, covering the spread by 63 points in those games. Unlike New England, Seattle has played their best in recent playoff action, going 7-1 SU. Versus this year’s playoff teams, the Seahawks went 7-1 SU, outgaining their foes by an average of 74 YPG. Seattle continues to show line value with a recent record of 47-19 ATS including, more recently, 15-6 SU ATS away from home. This year, Seattle outgained their home opponents by 152 YPG, winning 7 of 8 contests by an average score of 23-16 on the road. Much like New England, this will be the Seahawks’ first game away from home in 6 weeks.
Part II
New England enters the playoffs at 14-4 SU. In 2014, they outscored foes by an average of 30-20. Their running game averaged 27 carries per game for 106 RYPG at 3.9 YPR. The Patriots threw the ball an average of 39 times per game, completing 65% of their passes for an average of 6.8 yards per attempt. The offense totaled 370 YPG. On defense, foes ran 26 times per game against New England for an average of 105 YPG on 4.0 YPR. The opposition completed 59% of their passes for 6.5 yards per attempt. The defense allowed 341 YPG. From a yards per play perspective, New England outgained their opponents 5.6 to 5.5 yards per play.
Seattle outscored their foes by an average of 25-16 this year. Their run based offense averaged 33 carries per game for 170 RPG on 5.2 YPR. Seattle only passed the ball 28 times per game, completing 63% of their passes for an efficient 7.3 yards per attempt. The offense totaled 375 YPG. On defense, the Seahawks were again superlative. Foes ran the ball on them an average of only 25 times per game, for an average of 87 RYPG on 3.6 YPR. They held foes to only 62% completions for just 5.8 yards per attempt. Seattle featured the league best defense that allowed just 274 YPG. From a yards per play perspective, Seattle outgained their opponent 6.2 to 4.8 yards per play, the latter number being the best in the NFL.
WHEN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE BALL
It should come as no surprise to veteran NFL followers that the Belichick/Brady brain trust excels against elite defenses. This year, New England recorded a record of 7-2 SU against top 10 defenses they faced. Brady was superb, passing for over 300 PYPG, completing 66% of his passes for a 22/7 ratio. They needed that aerial success, as they could average just 66/3.2 overland in those games. From the statistics above, you can see that the Patriots will have a hard time establishing a ground game against Seattle. Rather, they will rely on a triumvirate of receivers. These include a possession receiver in Edelman, WR Lafell, and the big play receiver in Gronkowski. But Seattle enters this game outgaining their foes 13 consecutive games, allowing just 251 YPG in that time frame. When facing an elite signal caller in QB Rodgers two weeks ago, the Packers could throw for just 171 yards on 19/34. It is no sure thing that, at least in the early going, QB Brady has success against this unit.
WHEN SEATTLE HAS THE BALL
It is clear that Seattle is a run based defense behind RB Lynch. The 33/170/5.2 ground game was the best in the league. It is balanced by QB Wilson, who is wise beyond his years, throws with unusual accuracy and power, while avoiding pressure with his agility; it would appear he is the perfect complement to this run based offense. Note that Seattle relies on this ground game to the point where they average only 28 passes per game. But if there is one NFL coach who has the experience and expertise to close down an offense that would be HC Belichick of New England. In the early going, it will be an intriguing game of cat and mouse, as New England offers multiple defensive looks in an effort to confuse QB Wilson. The team who wins this matchup has a huge edge in the eventual outcome.
This fundamental, statistically based analysis will be integrated with my previous article on tech and trends, along with my situational analysis, leading to the conclusion on Friday of this week regarding the pointspread and OVER/UNDER winners.