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NBA Pick: 807 Toronto Raptors @ 808 Detroit Pistons
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Detroit Pistons (+7.5) (Play up to +7)
Odds: -108 / 1.93 on Pinnacle Sports OR -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker OR -109 / 1.92 on Matchbook
Detailed Write Up:
If it's true that Toronto definitely has the edges in theory to get a comfortable win tonight, it's also true that their spot for this contest is a bit tricky. They've been a big sloppy as of late and after a blowout win against Brooklyn in a big revenge game for them, I expect them to have a letdown tonight against a team, who even though has a poor record, actually possesses some weapons to pound the weakest part of Toronto's defense.
I believe Detroit's size will be a clear problem for Toronto tonight. Even in the game against the Nets, Toronto struggled most of the game against a depleted Brooklyn team due to some really sloppy play on the interior defense, including the defensive rebounding area. Valanciunas seems a bit too slow to block shots, while Amir is a PF who likes to play a lot on the outside, which will be problematic against Detroit's big lineup tonight. Drummond should dominate the rebounding, while both Monroe and Josh should have some physical edge tonight against the opposing PF's of Toronto.
I expect Toronto's chill out spot to put them in a lot of danger against a team which is a lowly one, but who actually has a physical frontcourt that can expose Toronto's major liability right now: their interior defense. Therefore, I expect this game to be a surprising close one and so, I'll take Detroit in here.