Analysis: Have to. Niagra is a team that was a team that was 3-17 last season, and this year they are far less experienced and even smaller. In fact, there are only three teams smaller in D1. And there are only four teams with less experience. I do know that St. Johns plays at Syracuse on Saturday, but sheer talent differential here is more than 18 points, and Niagra plays an up-tempo game, which will allow for tons of points, IMO, i.e. plenty of chances to cover the big number. Because the Johnnies want to score inside, they should get Niagra into foul trouble here. I am not enamored with the way SJU shot free throws against Minnesota, but I clearly remember them trying to play like the Globetrotters. Against Niagra they can probably get away with that. Niagra has a rare Conference game against Canisius on Saturday, so they're not looking at winning this one. SJU's defense should keep them from scoring, since they want to go inside as well. Just far too much depth/talent on SJU to not have this be a rout. Niagra turns the ball over and gets tons of shots blocked. In fact, they do very little well. I tried not to lay these points, but I keep looking at how the Aces stay in this, and even a mediocre effort by SJU should be more than enough. Perhaps a 1H bet is the better way to go.
Thoughts on other games:
Wake is a very difficult place to play, and the Deacons' stock has never been lower after losing at home to Delaware State last week. I don't trust Minnesota and their 55% FT shooting right now, so this game is a clear pass for me.
Almost think the value lies with Indiana over Pittsburgh. Obviously the Hoosiers have lost some cred with the EWU loss, but EWU does not suck, and a young Hoosier team is going to have those nights. This is actually the Panthers first true road game, and I wonder how spending a week in Hawaii effected them. I like Indiana here, but ML because this is more than likely a very close game and Pitt is not all that experienced, either.
Everyone is all over LSU which is exactly why I like UMass. They lost Chaz Williams, but IMO they are a better team this season. They can and will play LSU's pace, and IMO LSU sucks. I do not like Johhnny Jones as a coach and LSU has a game at WVU later this week. Clearly not a huge HC advantage in CBB for the Tigers, either.
Late to the party to fade Georgia Southern and probably should just pass right now. Saw that opened at a PK and was shocked, knowing how bad GSU can be. Statesboro, GA, is not far from me. However, I hesitated BECAUSE it was a PK, so perhaps something is up there. UCF is just not that good, and GSU has already played in Illinois so this is nothing. UCF has FSU later this week, too.
The sharp money appears to be on VCU but I still lean to Illinois State at home catching a few points.They almost beat Seton Hall and were DESTROYED on opening night at VCU last season.
I do like Bradley over Central Michigan, but would want -3 or less. CMU is probably the more talented team, but they haven't played ANYONE yet.
With the total climbing in the Alabama game, I do think the Tide cover that -12.5 here.
In spite of the Illinois money, I like Miami. They are just too good to fade at home, period. Yes, they didn't look dominant the second time against Charlotte, but they won. They didn't hammer South Alabama, but they were looking HERE.
Purdue is playing too well to fade here. NC State is playing their first road game and have a Conference game w/Wake on Saturday, which is obviously more important.
You're going to pay a premium to back Louisville most all of the time, and against Ohio State 8.5 is probably too many points to lay. Passing this games just because OSU hasn't been tested yet, and if they do play a close game I love Colgate to cover against OSU later this week.
I like T-Chat at home. I always do.