I have been doing some work on the POR@CHA matchup and I've found a few interesting notes I wanted to pass along.
I currently see the line is dropping, but I can not make a case to back the home dog.
Looking into the stats over the L10, (1-9 SU) you can find out what is happening with this team, they simply cannot finish games. If you look at the 4th quarter, they have been outscored 214-266 in the 4th, and average of 20-27, with their only win (and only 4th qtr win) coming vs PHX who is ranked 24th in defense. Furthermore, they have only faced THREE top ten defenses in that stretch (including POR tonight). The closest 4th qtr point differentials came in garbage time. Bottom line: Even though they are facing weak defensive teams, they still can't score in the 4th and finish the game.
Portland (1st in the NBA in rebounding) won the rebound battle in the last matchup, and LaMarcus Aldridge absolutely dominated his matchup...CHA simply has no answer for him...Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, is OUT for tonight's match up (the only CHA starter who had an offensive rebound) which isn't good....and now questions surrounding Lance Stephenson's role in the rotation just doesn't bode well for CHA.
The only positives I see so far for CHA, is that in the last game, their bench outscored POR 36-26, and a possible look ahead spot for POR, but with Batum back in the line up, POR should be able to manage their rotation more efficiently.
6th Ranked Offense vs 19th Ranked Defense
1st in Rebounding vs 24th
4th APG vs 19th
7th Ranked Defense vs 26th PPG.
My power rankings make this game 6.5 (closer to 7)
However, the money coming in on CHA has be a little hesitant to pull the trigger just yet, but most def can't take the home dog...POR at 5 or less or pass. (for now)