I really like Orlando in this spot tonight.
Right now (2:00 p.m.) with less than 2k tickets written (about 1600) we have split of 35/65 with the public currently backing the home team. However, I like Orlando for a couple of reasons here.
Yes, these teams were a 2-2 ATS split last year….mind you a Magic team that won only 23 games vs a playoff team in CHA, but if you dig into the box scores you can find the fundamental reason WHY this happened….for me personally that is the most important aspect when utilizing a trend that appears to be in your favor…find out WHY before you blindly jump on something. In this case, it seems to be the play of the big men. Nikola Vucevic appears to be an extremely difficult for Al Jefferson. In both games where Vucevic was scratched, Jefferson roamed free and the Bobcats got the easy wins. Just take a look at the numbers.
In the two games the Magic were without their big man, Jefferson averaged 29.5 points and 16 boards…(30pts 16rebs & 29pts 16rebs)…when Vucevic was in the lineup, those number dropped dramatically, and both outright losses. (20pts/8rebs & 10pts 11rebs)…and in BOTH of those games Vucevic outscored and outrebounded Jefferson (24pts, 23rebs & 12pts 14rebs).
FWIW, (via Sports Insights) over the past 10 seasons, road underdogs (in conference play), where the closing totals are under 200, and 34% or less of the public are backing them have a very profitable margin, 334-236 ROI of 14.6%, currently 7-1 this season (7-0 run). That may sound random, but there is a fundamental aspect to the trend, and it’s proven profitable.
We are skirting the limits of that trend, but I love the match up so I almost have to look Magic here.