Analysis:
We're following the "smart money" in this one. Despite a majority of the reported bets coming in on Villanova, this line has moved from WVU -4.5 to -6 in some places. But this isn't just about backing the wise guys.
WVU can grab a share of second place in the Big East with a win tonight. The Mountaineers only home loss in 11 games at the WVU Coliseum this season was a heartbreaking one-point loss to Big East leading Syracuse. The WVU Coliseum has been a "House of Horrors" for this 'Nova class, as they're only two appearances in this venue have resulted in losses by 11 in '07 and 21 last season.
According to the Pomeroy ratings, WVU owns an edge in defensive efficiency, ranking 22nd in the nation as compared to 'Nova's #64 ranking. I always like to have a defensive edge when I'm laying points. WVU also has a size advantage in this matchup, so I fully expect them to win the battle on the glass ('Nova is +4.6 boards per game on the road, WVU is +8.7 at home) -- another huge element to the game, in my opinion.
Bottom line: Playing a top conference rival on national TV (ESPN) is always a huge emotional lift for the home team. With 'Nova getting drilled at Georgetown just two days, and knowing their recent history in this building, they could get that "here we go again" feeling when WVU gets a run going and gets up on them. The public is taking 'Nova, expecting a bounce back tonight. I see the opposite happening in this road contest. I expect WVU to feed off the home crowd, win the battle of the boards and play the solid defense that is necessary to get a margin here. Call it Mountaineers by 10. Lay it with West Virginia.