Analysis: This could go to +4.5 (as I said last night +5 is usually dead) so I'll put it out now. I really looked for reasons to back UMass and their passing attack at home, but came up empty. If there's one thing Ball State does well (typically) it's defend the pass. They rank 33rd in the nation allowing a little over 200 yards per game. That may be somewhat low due to the fact that they haven't played a ton of passing teams, and of course I do expect Umass to score. However, I don't expect UMass to stop Ball State from scoring, either. UMass' defense ranks 108th and allows 35 points per game, which is something I just can't put my money behind. They've had two weeks to prepare, which is of course somewhat of a concern, but you can't change the talent in two weeks. The Minutemen are indeed getting better, but they're just not in a position to be laying more than a FG to anyone, IMO. Ball State is one of the least penalized teams and they're also near the top of the nation in turnover margin, and those are things I CAN get behind. Frohnapfel has actually played a little better on the road, but what I really don't like are his fourth quarter stats. He's completing 38% of his passes and thrown seven picks with only four TD's. Ball State's SU road record is marginal the last couple of years, but they're 7-2 in their last 9 ATS, and in six of those nine they were underdogs. Ball State has been much better in the Red Zone than Umass (dramatically), which is yet another thing we like to get behind. In the end I do expect, again, Umass to move the ball, but the little things all point to Ball State and a last possession game. I suspect Umass will come out smoking just knowing they're on ESPN, but emotion may only carry them so far, and of course Ball State is used to the cameras. I will take the better coach, the better defense, and the team that typically makes less mistakes.
And FWIW, Umass hasn't thrown a pick in the 1H this season, and Ball State is one of the better HT adjustment making teams. Seriously considering UMass 1H ML and Ball State 2H and game.