Marquee NCAA Games Saturday – Live Dogs? – Close calls?
By Tony George
Nebraska @ Wisconsin -6
The Huskers off a bye week, and all of Husker Nation holding baited breath at the level of healthiness of all world RB Ameer Abdullah this week. Word out of Lincoln is he will not be 100% with a strained MCL in his knee, but he will play. Nebraska’s offense sputtered against Purdue without him. Nebraska has a decent set of RB’s behind him in Cross and Newby, as well as dual threat QB Tommy Armstrong, and an underrated defense led by All American DE Gregory. Wisconsin on the other hand mirrors Nebraska in numerous ways, especially RB Gordon who is also a game breaker and grind it out type RB, and both teams rely on the run, but it is Nebraska who has threats at WR in Bell and Westerkamp, both game breakers. You never can trust Bo Pelini in a big game, especially on the road, but almost a TD difference here with this division on the line should prove to be a tight game from wire to wire, either team capable of winning. The Huskers have not forgotten the 70-31 beating they took in the title game before realignment when RB Gordon had over 200 yards rushing on them, and the bye week should have them duly prepared.
Florida State -2 @ Miami
If Florida State thinks they can sleep walk through this game, they better think again. Another start like NC State, Louisville and Virginia and they will lose this game. Miami is very physical up front and Duke Johnson is capable of 90+ yards on the ground in this game. Florida St is not the team they were last year, and it shows on defense, where last year they allowed 13 ppg and this year 24 ppg. Interesting in this series that Miami is 5-1 ATS as a home dog since 2009, and have 4 time revenge, and have simply improved week to week during the season. Not an easy chore here for FSU who has not looked sharp in all 4 quarters of a game this entire season in my opinion. I expected this line at -6, oddsmakers know FSU has to play well to win, and this is a prime upset spot.
LSU @ Arkansas -2.5
The Razorbacks favored in Fayetteville in an SEC game? LSU is basically 4 plays away from a 1 loss season and are vastly better than their record. Arkansas, like LSU loves to pound the rock and are physical. One has to ask themselves how deflated the Tigers are off an OT loss to mighty Alabama last week. The Razorbacks on a 17 game SEC slide and quite frankly of all this weekend’s underdogs I think LSU is a great option as the line is climbing against them, and they know how to win games, and if LSU decides to pass the ball and use play action, they can pick apart a very weak secondary of Arkansas, ranked 97th against the pass.
Mizzou @ Texas AM -6
Mizzou is far from the team they were last year, especially on defense, but they get after the QB and led the SEC in sacks, but are very suspect against the run, which is something Texas AM does not do very well. Also the Tigers off a bye week have had time to address the anemic offensive efforts they have put out, and with the Aggie defense allowing 45 ppg their last 4 games in SEC action, that may very well keep Mizzou in this one and make it interesting. Catching the Aggies off a huge upset here is a good thing, but the home of the 12th man is no easy task for any team and all world frosh QB Allen looked poised and sharp last week in a very tough spot. Mizzou has won and covered their last 8 on the road. Should be a track meet in this one, turnovers will be key as well as special teams.
Auburn @ Georgia -2.5
The Tigers off a brutal beat down at home against a suspect Texas AM team, where they fumbled away the win late in the game, in what was an Epic SEC battle last Saturday. Georgia’s off a huge win last week at Kentucky, after going down hard against a bad Florida team in the annual shootout in Jacksonville FL. Tough call here, we all know Auburn is better, but Todd Gurley returns from suspension, it is between the hedges, and the X Factor is if Auburn has refocused and can take care of the ball. Georgia is +13 in the turnover area. Dawgs have bite here, however in a big game time and time again Georgia has failed.
Best Lean – LSU +2.5
Would not surprise me – Miami (but I would love more points) and Georgia finally won a big one.
Biggest potential Shocker – Nebraska to win outright. (If Abdullah plays, if he does not, then fade them)
Tony George off a 4-0 Sweep last weekend, – Look for this week’s action from Tony out on Thursday, and invest in a solid veteran capper.
Hoops Packages on Sale now as well.