Tony George - NFL Recap – Weekends takeaways
By Tony George
A solid run in the NFL as I am figuring out each week to learn from the previous week, as I have always done. That is the rule of handicapping, adjust where and when needed. I hit the skids two weeks ago and have since rebounded with 8-2 effort over my last 10 plays. Learning and adjusting and following trends “in Season” is always a big part of how you end up grading games and plays. There is a zig zag theory from week to week in the NFL with many teams, not all of them, but many of them. Jets and Steelers a perfect example, look great or poor one week and go the opposite next week. Consistent teams is where you want your money now, Kansas City, Arizona, New England, all very consistent and all covering spreads like a mad man.
The Cards sit atop the NFL at 8-1, and have a big game on deck with Detroit this week, the biggest game of the upcoming week in the NFL, and Carson Palmer looks to be out of the scenario with a torn ACL (suspected). In all actuality I think Drew Stanton is little drop off there and is fully capable of leading them to plenty of wins but he does face one of the best defenses in the NFL this week. Also the lines have been tight, and I have used Teasers this year a great deal to gain advantage on the books and have cashed 11 out 14 of them on my premium packages. Line value is crucial in the NFL and key numbers like 3-6-7-10 are valuable to move through one way or the other, so keep these options open to yourself to manipulate lines and gain some value.
Here are my key observations from this past weekend
- Arizona’s defense is simply masterful – Carson Palmer out is a big hit but not Armageddon to this team. Jon Brown a stud at WR!
- Kansas City no pretender – never panic- solid ball club- well coached - serious playoff contender – QB Smith better than average
- The Saints have committed to the run, and been vastly more successful. Still will win their division despite a setback Sunday
- The 49ers finally realize that balancing their attack and using Gore will pay dividends – QB Kappernick looked better Sunday
- Seattle needs Wilson running the ball 10 times a game to win, even with Lynch. Possible Wildcard Playoff team, no repeat Champs though
- Chicago is a train wreck – defense is deplorable – poorly coached, Tresman is totally over rated as a coach. Bad team – Fade them
- Green Bay clicking on all cylinders – Look for OVERS with his team – defense is average – matters little – Nelson at Rodgers dynamic duo!
- Put NO Stock in Steelers loss at the Jets – 4 turnovers in the NFL will get you beat anywhere, including to the Jets
- Oakland is flat out a fade against any team in the top 10 in scoring in the NFL
- The Browns are no joke – A tough out for any team, getting more than 5 or 6 points with them is a take
- Cincinnati out the outside looking in – They miss Zimmer as DC, the defense is a funnel to the end zone and big plays
- With Megatron back, the Lions bite has just increased – great defense – Top 4 team in NFL
- Baltimore got a win – still struggled against lowly Tennessee – not a buy sign on this team yet – offense sputters
- Giants defense worst in the NFL – 32nd in yards allowed – Niners on deck – Fade team all the way- can’t stop anyone
8-0 Weekend Premium Play Sweep. 83-53-1 run all plays last 137. Free Plays went 2-1 (Video yesterday plus Teaser cashed, lost on K State)
4-0 both Sat - Sun with BOTH 2 Dimers each day cashing. 12-1 All Play run. NBA / NCAA Hoops Discounted package available. Top 10 year in Both last season, #1 March Madness capper at Sports Watch - #4 NBA Post Season
MNF Double Header - Total and Tease tonight. SWEEP IT. 8-2 NBA run including Teasers which are 11-3 ATS on the Year
NBA 66% ATS last week to open my season - Totals Play tonight.