It is what it is. This is where I am supposed to tell you that CBB packages are up and that we have a few 3* plays this weekend. This was done over a few days, so lines may differ, and it's for anyone who hasn't done the work. Anyone.
Not sure I get the Penn State love, and had an immediate lean to Indiana before the line went to +7. The total dropping to 44 just says it's the Hoosiers or nothing. Yes, Indiana has fallen on hard times, but even with Penn State's defense, they don't have the offense to be laying a TD on the road, IMO.
Conventional wisdom might suggest that UGA is really pissed and bounces back strong, but I think you've got to take a hard look at Kentucky. UGA is simply OUT of the National Championship picture and UGA has Auburn at home next week. Kentucky needs another win to get to six, and this IS their last home game. If Kentucky put up 500 yards on Mississippi State at home, I wouldn't hesitate to take them here, especially where Kentucky probably remembers losing 59-17 last year in Athens.
This is UAB's first home game in a month, and what scares me here about La Tech is that before they blew away Western Kentucky, they struggled at Southern Miss and didn't exactly put away UTSA at home like most thought they would. Probably better games rather than just taking the home dog, and I don't agree with the huge move down in the total. Again, probably better games.
I had an immediate lean to the Gophers at home, where they've played really well, and they're probably being downgraded after the Illinois loss last week. They didn't embarrass themselves earlier in the year against TCU, and I'm not sure Iowa really has the offense to run away here. If I were going to tease a CFB game I'd do it in a lower scoring one, giving the points more value, and perhaps the Gophers warrant that.
So the Wolverines win one game and Northwestern gets crushed and all of a sudden Michigan is road favorites, and they haven't won a road game this season. Perhaps so, but I like this under a bit more than either side. Both offenses have just been beyond inept, but I'd want 41 or more. This could be another game that teasing the home team to more than a TD with Minnesota might work, but I get sh*t for doing that.
Purdue can at least score, but I do know Wisconsin is on a roll right now. I go back to the 31 points they (Purdue) put up at home on Michigan State and find it hard to not take them with 17 points. However, the over is surely in play, IMO, if for no other reason than at some point Purdue will be forced to throw the ball on every play, both extending the time and allowing for either a garbage score or a defensive score. I haven't looked at the weather, though.
App State has won a couple games big, but against Troy and Georgia State. When I look at who UL Monroe has played this season (A & M, LSU, and Kentucky) it's hard not to think they can win this game. I like the over in this one, and do think it eventually gets steamed back up.
The fact that Pinnacle is still sitting at -3.5 in favor of Duke is somewhat telling to me. Their not lined up to scalp the home dog at a good number (yet). This is a huge game for Duke. They've only got the one loss to Miami and after this finish the season with three straight home games and will be favored in all of them. I suspect Duke wins this game, if for no other reason than Syracuse can't score enough points, but I would play the Duke ML if at all. Perhaps parlayed with someone.
Classic letdown spot for the Gators after beating UGA, but this is a really, really, bad Vanderbilt football team. With zero passing attack for the 'Dores I almost have to think Florida wins this game, but I can't see how they don't stay under 45 points.
The Golden Nugget preseason number on the BC game was L'ville -15. Ouch. They're begging for BC money here, but what I see is two offenses that really struggle and two defenses that are really good. At the current number of 46, I really like this under.
Probably pass that Kansas game because it would be just like them to actually play well and/or win the game. They sling the ball around and I can't back a team like Iowa State who has the 117th ranked defense in the nation, on the road. However, I can't get behind sh*tty teams like Kansas, either. If that total drops below 54 I like the over here.
I watched Tulane play a couple of times, expecting something different, and it just didn't happen. You know I am tempted to take +17 or more, but I just can't do it. Tulane beat UConn and played UCF tough, but that would be asking for Houston to totally fall apart. I don't have the respect for Houston I did at the beginning of the year, so I'll pass. Houston totals are still to high, and Tulane shouldn't score, so under if you made me.
Both Georgia State and Troy suck pretty bad. At first I thought "how can Troy be -7 to anyone", and still feel that way. Tough to bet on bad teams, but Troy has nearly the worst offense and the worst defense in the nation, so by process of elimination, I'll take GSU.
Rice has been playing some good football, but I wonder if it hasn't gone too far, making them DD chalk. But, UTSA just has little or no offense and this will be Rice's 6th win (Bowl Eligible) so I guess I can see them covering this. Obviously at less than -10.
Sharp people taking Texas and disrespecting what WVU has done. Texas has had their off-days, but they've also been victims of a tough schedule, and with that tough schedule they've held some high-powered teams to reasonable numbers. It's their offense that lacks, so I do agree with that total coming down. Obviously already through some key numbers, but still probably worth a play.
The Washington line moves towards UCLA when the Huskies dismissed Marcu Peterson, a potential first round draft pick, who happens to play CB. Not happy about that, but what's done is done.
SMU and Tulsa have two of the worst defenses in the nation, so I might look at the over. I do think Tulsa does manhandle them, but against Tulsa, even SMU may well score.
Not sure why UConn is favored by more than 3 at Army, but I guess it for a reason. We know UConn has a stout defense and Army simply can't score, which leads me to think this stays under, but I'd only bet it at 48. I can't touch a side here because I just hate betting against service acadamies who at least give 60 minutes of effort.
I am not sure why I didn't just take Auburn -21 when we could have. If A & M can only score 21 against ULM at home, I can't see them scoring 14 at Auburn, even if the Tigers take them for granted. With that in mind and the fact that it's "style points" time of year, Auburn probably does crush them. I don't care who they play next.
Not over thinking that Alabama game. It's almost ludicrous that they want to give you LSU at home with a touchdown. Alabama's stock has never been higher, especially with the discussion about how they may be the best team in the nation. Does that mean if this game were in Tuscaloosa that the Tide would be -14 or so? Probably, but it's not in Alabama.
Lots of sharp love this afternoon (Thursday) for Baylor, and I can't say I disagree. I will fade Oklahoma in big games as long as Stoops is their coach. The Sooners have played two games against ranked teams (K-State and TCU) and lost them both). Baylors' schedule hasn't been all that, but Oklahoma's defense hasn't been tested like it will be Saturday. 72 is a ton of points, but I don't have the stones for that under.
I actually like Virginia plus the points at FSU. I know UVA has fallen on hard times after being a betting darling early in the year, but with Miami next week and FSU three-decade long history of not staying focused, I can see UVA hanging around here. I do like the under only because UVA's offense just isn't going to put up a ton of points.
Let me see, Western Kentucky allows 43 points per game which is just about DFL (dead f'n last) in the NCAA and you want me to lay -14 with them. I know it's UTEP, but they average 30 points a game, so rather than over think this one, I will take the points, and IMO if the weather is good it sails over whatever number they want to use for a total.
Washington State is a bad team and you guys know I don't like Mike Leach much, BUT, tey throw the ball around the yard and Oregon State's defense hasn't been tested like that. The caveat here is that OSU needs a couple more wins for a bowl game, and looking at the schedule this really needs to be one of them. I can see using them in a ML parlay, but not laying points.
Over reaction in Las Vegas. I will take UNLV at home getting points against Air Force. The Falcons are much improved, but now we're talking about the "good kids" in Sin City, plus, Air Force lost at Wyoming and gave up points to Georgia State. They're a different team on the road, IMO.
See previous notes on Idaho. Bet on them in the Kibble Dome and fade or pass on the road. SDSU doesn't have a dynamic offense but a Rocky Long defense should keep Idaho for scoring, so I like the under here a fair bit.
I read somewhere that North Texas has one of the better home field advantages. I don't get that, and maybe it's because Denton is such a brutal place to get to, I dunno. They really struggle to score, though, but FAU hasn't won a road game yet, so I can't take them. By default, I'd have to take UNT and the under.
The Georgia Southern game is another one that perhaps the line and love has gone too far. We were all over them early, but now IMO it's too late. Texas State just won two conference road games and they'll put the ball in the air, something GSU's opponents haven't done much of. GSU may start "thinking" now rather than just playing. Got to take those points because although GSU can score I don't have much respect for their defense.
It seems to easy to take Arizona, but we've bet on and watched enough Colorado games to know that's not happening. Arizona can probably name this score.
Boise State on the road isn't the same team. They lost at Air Force and allowed 46 points to Nevada. I realize New Mexico can't score, but if the can make first downs once in a while with the running game, this game should stay under.
Another team whose stock is high is Colorado State. Yes, they've been winning, but if you look at their scores, they're not blowing people away. Yes, it's Hawaii who may have a tough time scoring, but that's three possessions and I just can't do that.
Somewhat surprised at the betting disrespect for Ohio State, with that line staying at +3.5 or more. Part of me wonders if that's for a reason. I guess they'll be motivated more by last years' loss (choke) to the Spartans, and I have no respect for the schedule OSU plays. I was shocked when that total come out at 63, and obviously it's 7 points better now, so I wasn't alone. However, the more I look at that the more I think it may well go over. The Spartans talk is usually all about their defense, but there the fifth highest scoring team in the nation, and Ohio State is fourth. I would suspect Urban will find a way to put some points on the board.
I think that total in the Notre Dame game may still be too low, but I can't take the number that's six points worse than it was. Probably one of the biggest games in ASU history (at least recent) with ESPN and the national audience, which actually scares me. It's rare air and a place they've never been, while Notre Dame has. This is nothing compared to Tallahassee, and I like Notre Dame's defense better. No matter what, ASU is probably not in the national hunt, while Notre Dame is. If they win this and win at USC in the season finale, they could be there with the only loss coming to FSU. Got to reluctantly take the Irish here.
I really liked Utah at home early in the week, and at +10 would have liked them more. They're just too well coached, but they just can't put up points this season, so I can't go there and do think Oregon wins and covers. It's a tough spot for the Ducks after the Stanford game, but they've got two mail-in games to finish the regular season with one loss, so they probably do pound Utah.
I'll leave the TCU/K-State game to others for the time being.