Recommendation: Take the Denver Broncos -3
At first glance, this line probably seems high to most people. After all, the Patriots aren’t home underdogs very often; just four times since 2005. We saw New England annihilate Cincinnati as a national TV home dog less than a month ago. And the Pats are 41-21 ATS as a dog in the Belichick era, cashing at a 66% clip long term in this very role.
But before we get carried away with the Pats current four game winning streak, lets not forget that New England has largely been feasting on bottom feeders. Their six victories this season have come against Minnesota, Oakland, Cinci (in a miserable spot for the Bengals), Buffalo, the Jets and Chicago (on a day where Jay Cutler was misfiring). That’s not exactly a who’s who of Super Bowl contenders, to put it mildly.
Yet despite facing teams with a combined winning percentage of just .433 (not counting their games against the Pats), New England’s statistical profile is mediocre at best. The Patriots have outgained their foes by only 0.2 yards per play, right in the same range as teams like New Orleans, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia – above average squads, but certainly not elite teams.
New England has also suffered a handful of crucial, impactful defensive injuries in recent weeks. They’ve lost their defensive quarterback (LB Jerod Mayo) and their best pass rusher (DE Chandler Jones) to long term injuries. Those injuries didn’t matter last week, in a game where Jay Cutler struggled once again, but they are likely to matter in a matchup against Peyton Manning.
My power ratings have the Broncos more than a field goal better than the 2nd best team in the NFL, by far the most impressive team in the league thusfar this season. Unlike the Patriots, Denver is battle tested, having squared off against the likes of the Colts, Seahawks, Cardinals, 49ers and Chargers already this year. They’ve faced opponents with a combined .622 winning percentage in all games not against the Broncos. Only the 49ers have faced a tougher slate thusfar.
And Denver has essentially dominated that elite competition. They have outgained their foes by a whopping 1.5 yards per play, by far the best in the NFL. Denver’s offense is every bit as good as it was last year. Defensively, the additions of DeMarcus Ware and Aqib Talib have had an immediate impact, as has the return to health of Von Miller, leading to a 23-8 sack ratio between what their defense has created vs. what their offense has allowed. Denver is the ‘class’ in this matchup, and I expect that to show on Sunday. Take the Broncos.
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