301 Saints bet up from pk to -3-100
Basic Strategy in Saints games is to bet the home team, but the wise guys are more than ready to fade Carolina. The Panthers let all their Wide Receivers leave during the summer. They then had cluster injuries to their running backs, and when the back finally got healthy, the Oline got decimated. Wise Guys know Saints were clear cut large favorites to win @Atl, @Clev and @Det all with 2 minutes to play. The feeling is they have been more unlucky than they have been bad (but their D DID collapse the final minutes of those road games).
453 Jax +13 bet down to +11 @ Cincy.
Wise Guys know Jax outgained Mia last week, but 2 pick 6's for 102 yards doomed them. The opener was too high with AJ Green still questionable, And Cincy in a double decker Sandwich Spot with THIS game being the one to look past (@Indy, BALT, JAX, CLEV, @NO)
461 Jets +10 bet down to +9.5
Wise Guys don't like Michael Vick, but he is an upgrade from the despised Geno Smith. Jets gain 4.7 yprush give up 3.3. Their D gives up only 5.2 ypplay. If they could just get mediocre play from their offense they would be a .500 team.
468 Pats +3.5 down to +3-100.
Wise Guys feel Denver is as good as last year, and the Pats are a bit worse. However they well remember the game last year where ALL the money came late on the Pats, who closed ML -115, and despite gettting CRUSHED in the 1st half, did win the game. Are the Pats 3.5 points worse than last year? The wise guys are saying no.
471 Balt/Pit OVER bet from 46.5 to 48.
The Bettors are ignoring Baltimore's tendency to play "UNDER" in divsisional games. Pit is a clear cut "OVER" team this year, shredding a Indy D for 600 yards that had been stellar the two weeks before. With Balt CB Jimmy Smith out, the feeling is Pitt will exploit this, and the market does not like this Pit Defense to stop any good Qb.