The Cowboys have been better than everyone expected this season - even us - and Dallas over 7.5 wins +165 was our 2014 NFL Regular Season Wins Futures Play of the Year. We bet them at +515 to win the NFC East before the season started and then bet them again at +1400 to win the NFC East after week one when Dallas and Romo looked so bad against the Niners.
Dallas is a great as a dog, but they have trouble as a favorite – especially after a win.
The Cowboys are 0-10 ATS (-8.35 ppg) as a favorite versus any team with fewer wins after a win. The SDQL text is:
team=Cowboys and F and p:W and wins > o:wins and season >= 2010
This season the Giants have averaged 31.0 rushes per game and the Cowboys are also not a good investment as home chalk vs a team that likes to run the ball. Specifically, Dallas is 0-14 ATS since 2010 as a home favorite vs a team that has averaged more than 27.5 rushing attempts per game. The SDQL text is:
team=Cowboys and HF and oA(rushes) > 27.5 and season >= 2010
The Giants were absolutely horrible last Sunday Night, getting shutout by the Eagles 27-0. The loss dropped them to 500 on the season. The Giants are by far the best performing team in the league on the road when they are 500. NY is 8-0 ATS in this spot, covering by an average of a whopping 16.8 ppg. In their last five on the road with a record of 500 they are 5-0 SU, winning by an average of 16.8 ppg and covering by an average of 20.7 ppg and they were the dog every time. See for yourself by running this SDQL text:
team=Giants and A and WP=50 and date>=20061001
Finally, the Giants committed an uncharacteristic ten penalties vs the Eagles and they are 6-0 ATS the week after a game in which they committed at least three more penalties than their season-to-date average, covering by nearly two TD’s per game. Check it out with this SDQL text:
team=Giants and p:penalties - tA(p:penalties) >= 3 and NB and season >= 2010
We look for a close, divisional battle. Grab the points.
MTi’s FORECAST: DALLAS 20 NY Giants 17