10/14 05:00 PM CF (301) UL-LAFAYETTE at (302) TEXAS STATE
Take: (302) UL-LAFAYETTE +2.5
Don’t look for a great deal of defense tonight as the Ragin’ Cajuns and the Bobcats hook up. Neither team is much good at stopping opponents, and with the national TV lights on the scene, I’m assuming the play books are thrown wide open tonight.
UL-Lafayette has been a disappointment this season. The Cajuns were the consensus top choice in the Sun Belt this season. Actually, they’re 1-0 in league play, so they could well get it together and win the SBC. But they have not played good football. ULL has had a real issue with its turnover ratio, QB Terrance Broadway has been erratic and the defense has been mostly terrible despite being very experienced.
Texas State stands 3-2 and nearly upset Illinois on the road. Dennis Franchione has done a fine job of building this program from scratch in just a handful of years. The Bobcats have a sleight of hand QB in Tyler Jones and Terrence Franks is an explosive RB who is off a great game against Idaho. But Texas State is awful defending the run, and Elijah McGuire could have a huge night carrying the football for the road team.
I really don’t see much to separate these teams. Louisiana demolished the Bobcats last year, but Texas State has clearly gotten better and the Cajuns have apparently declined. In my rankings, I have ULL two spots ahead of Texas State, so it’s a virtual wash and with the home field added in, the number is right where it ought to be.
The key could come down to nerves. That’s where the visitors have an advantage. ULL is a senior laden team that has been in its share of spotlight games, including three straight bowl appearances. This is a mostly new experience for Texas State and if anyone is more likely to rattle under the bright lights, I have to think it’s Texas State. It’s only a lean for me as this is written, but the only side I’ll consider playing is UL-Lafayette.
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