I don’t have a strong feel for tonight’s Patriots/Chiefs game - and we don't force premium picks even on TV games - but there is a huge winning trend that comes into play here, so I’ll explain that and also will use it as the Monday comp.
09/29 05:30 PM NFL (273) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at (274) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
FREE PICK: (274) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +3
I’m not sure what to make of the Patriots right now. Belichick and Brady are still there, and the Pats are 2-1 out of the gate. But there are some items of concern here, and it’s at least conceivable that there’s a bit of decline taking place on this roster. There’s just no getting around how inefficient the New England offense has been thus far. If this continues, the Pats are going to lose some games, and it’s certainly a possibility tonight.
Kansas City was about as phony as it gets for much of last season, and the consensus that they’d take a step or two backward this season looks like it’s going to be on target. The Chiefs look destined for a third place finish in the AFC West. I don’t think this is a terrible team, but they’re clearly not as good as the Broncos or Chargers, and if they go 1-3 against those two in divisional play, I’d consider it a victory of sorts.
Despite the poor offense, the Patriots are the better team here. But they’re up against what should be a fired up home crowd in what can be a very difficult venue for visitors. And there’s a significant trend in play here.
The angle in question teams that are dogs in Game Four after getting their first win of the season the prior outing. I think there’s a reasonable rationale here that takes this out of the complete fluke category. Getting that initial win after starting 0-2 is a major confidence boost for any team, and grabbing points with a team that’s at least gaining some momentum is not a terrible thing. In any event, backing underdogs in this scenario has been remarkably productive for several years, and it’s tough to argue with the success rate.
This is not a powerful opinion on my part. Belichick vs. Reid is still lopsided from my perspective and it’s really weird to see Tom Brady sitting at #28 in the NFL QB ratings. Maybe it’s a great spot to fade a team that’s no longer what it was, and there is that big winning trend to factor into the equation. But I’m not brimming with confidence on this call. Chiefs +3 is the choice, but this is definitely not top play material for me.
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Off a great weekend, we look to continue a great college football season -- special early CFB 3* has been released.