NFL Week Three results / Week Four OU lines
Week Three’s average OU line in the NFL was the same as Week Two (45.6 points). However, the average points-per-game was four points higher than the previous week (46.5). The average game went OVER by +0.9 ppg. It was the first week of the season in which there were more OVERS (9) than UNDERS (7). So after three weeks of the season, NFL games have gone 23-25 O/U. It’s the exact same OU record after three weeks as it was last year (23-25 O/U).
In this week’s Game Three, the average OU line is at 45.5 points (as of Tuesday morning). Here’s your review of Week Three from the last five years. We list the year... the average Week 1 OU line... the actual total of combined points scored... the OU margin... and the actual OU results. Week Four has easilly been the highest-scoring week. There have been more OVERS than UNDERS in every one of the last five seasons.
2014: 45.5
2013: 45.4 / 46.3 / +0.9 ppg / 9-7 O/U
2012: 44.8 / 47.3 / +2.5 ppg / 8-7 O/U
2011: 43.8 / 47.4 / +3.6 ppg / 10-6 O/U
2010: 42.5 / 41.3 / -1.2 ppg / 8-6 O/U
2009: 42.0 / 45.6 / +3.6 ppg / 8-5-1 O/U
London CALLING!
Since we’re on topic, ‘London Calling’ would probably be the favorite song by THE CLASH for many fans, myself included. But I would round out my personal favorite Top Five from this alternative and ground-breaking punk rock band with: ‘Magnificent Seven’... ‘Rudie Can’t Fail’... ‘Lost In The Supermarket’... ‘Spanish Bombs’... and the cover of ‘I Fought The Law’. Maybe JEFF, my rock musician Totals-Playing friend and customer from Canada can comment on my selections.
The annual trip to London for NFL games has two stops this season. This week, it will be the OAKLAND RAIDERS ‘hosting’ the MIAMI DOLPHINS at Wembley Stadium at 6:00pm local London time (1:00pm ET - 10:00am PT). Six weeks later, it will be the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS taking on the DALAS COWBOYS. These neutral-site games in the NFL used to be automatic ‘UNDER’ plays. From 2005 to 2011, the NFL neutral-site regular season games went 1-6 O/U, with an average of 37.8 ppg. But things have changed as of late. In the last two seasons, these games have gone a perfect 3-0 O/U. Last year’s two neutral-site games had 52 points and 61 points respectively. They went OVER the Total by +19.5 pts and +12 pts. The line for this week’s MIAMI / OAKLAND London game is on the low side (40.5 pts). But I don’t think we want a piece of that potential OVER play. Not with one team ‘waffling’ on their QB (Mia) and the other team starting a rookie QB (Oak).
OU update for NFL non-conference games
Sharp Totals Players rode the OVER in so many of the NFL non-conference games last season. In 2013, AFC vs NFC = AUTOMATIC Overs. It didn’t start out as well in this new 2014 season. But is the worm beginning to turn again? In Week One. non-conference games went 1-3 O/U. In Week Two, those games went 5-3 O/U. And last week, the non-conference games went 3-1 O/U (OVER Winners: Hous @ NYG... Pitt @ CAR... and Chi @ NYJ). The only non-conference game that did NOT go Over (Den @ Sea) lost by only 1.5 points. So these AFC vs NFC affairs have now gone 8-4 O/U in the last two weeks. It was right around this time LAST year when the 75% OVER percentage started to hit with great regularity. This week’s non-conference games: Panthers @ RAVENS... Lions @ JETS... and Bucs @ STEELERS.
Week Four Top OVER situations
9-0-1 O/U since 2005: All GAME FOUR dogs of 2 > pts off 3 straight ‘Overs’ (PHIL / JAX).
12-1 O/U last 3 years: All GAME FOUR undefeated teams (PHIL this week / ARZ and CINC next week).
10-1 O/U last 4 years: All GAME FOUR home teams playing off BB SU wins (BALT / SD / DAL).
12-2 O/U last 4 years: All GAME FOUR teams who allowed 10 > pts in Gm 3 (DET / SD / NORL).
The 2-minute handicap… O/U style
Nyg: 3-0 O/U aft Hou... 6-1 O/U off home dog win... 5-1 O/U as div dogs w/ OU 46 < pts... but 1-7 O/U Thursdays
WASH: 4-0 O/U aft score 31 > pts... 4-1 O/U aft allow 35 > pts... 3-1 O/U Thursdays... but 1-6 O/U bef Sea... 1-4 O/U Gm 3
Mia: 4-1 O/U Gm 4... 4-1 O/U favs vs AFC West... 7-3 O/U bef Bye... but 1-4 O/U aft KC... 3-7 O/U vs opp off 3+ SU losses
Oak: 3-0 O/U L3 vs Mia (48.7)... 8-1 O/U in 2nd of BB RG... 7-3 O/U non-div dogs 6 < pts... but 0-3 O/U Gm 3... 1-5 O/U aft NEng
GBay: 10-0 O/U vs opp off Mon gm... 7-1 O/U away aft score 10 < pts... 6-1 O/U Gm 4... 4-1 O/U 2nd of BB RG’s... but 0-4 O/U aft Det
CHI: 7-1 O/U Gm 4... 12-3 O/U off Mon gm... 4-1 O/U home bef BB RG... but 1-5 O/U aft NYJ... 2-10 O/U L12 vs GBay (36.5)
Buf: 5-1 O/U Gm 4... 6-2 O/U A off BB HG... but 1-4 O/U L5 vs Hou (33.4)... 1-3 O/U off SU home fav loss... 1-3 O/U A vs AFC South
HOU: 3-0 O/U L3 vs AFC East... 3-1 O/U off non-conf RG... 3-1 O/U Gm 4... but 1-5 O/U home off BB RG... 2-6 O/U as HF’s 4 < pts
Ten: 6-0 O/U Gm 4... 3-1 O/U as div RD’s... 3-1 O/U as dogs 7 > pts... but 0-3 O/U w/ div revenge... 1-8 O/U L9 vs Ind (36.3)
INDY: 4-0 O/U aft Jax... 4-0 O/U bef Balt... 7-1 O/U Gm 4... but 0-7 O/U as div HF’s > 4 pts... 0-6 O/U aft score 40+ pts
Car: 5-1 O/U away off BB HG... 3-1 O/U aft Pit... 3-1 O/U L4 vs Bal (36.0)... but 1-5 O/U bef Chi... 3-8 O/U away vs AFC
BALT: 4-1 O/U as HF’s vs NFC... 5-2 O/U vs AFC South... but 0-3 O/U bef Ind... 1-6 O/U off div RG... 2-7 O/U aft Clev
Det: 7-0 O/U aft allow < 10 pts... 7-0 O/U away vs AFC... 5-0 O/U aft GBay... 8-2 O/U as non-div RF’s... 7-2 O/U vs opp off Mon gm
NYJ: 6-0 O/U off Mon HG... 3-0 O/U L3 vs Det (47.7)... 5-1 O/U vs NFC North... 3-1 O/U in 2nd of BB HG’s... 3-1 O/U Gm 4
TBay: 3-0 O/U away off SU loss 21 > pts... 4-1 O/U off Thur gm... 3-1 O/U Gm 4... but 1-4 O/U bef NOrl... 2-8 O/U vs AFC North
PITT: 4-1 O/U aft Car... 15-4 O/U off road dog win... but 1-10 O/U vs opp off 3+ SU losses... 1-4 O/U L5 vs TBay (30.8)
Jac: 6-0 O/U bef Pit... 5-0 O/U dogs 11 > pts LY... 4-1 O/U off 3+ SU losses... 4-1 O/U away vs AFC West... but 0-3 O/U Gm 4
SD: 6-1 O/U Gm 4... 5-1 O/U aft Buf... 5-1 O/U favs vs AFC South... 5-1 O/U L6 vs Jac (46.2)... but 1-4 O/U as DD favs
Phil: 7-1 O/U L8 vs SF (53.1)... 3-1 O/U aft Wash... 3-1 O/U bef Stl... 4-2 O/U Gm 3... but 1-4 O/U non-div conf RD’s > 3 pts
SF: 2-0 O/U bef KC... 3-1 O/U aft Arz... but 0-3 O/U LY off div RG... 1-4 O/U off SU road fav loss... 1-4 O/U vs NFC East
Atl: 5-0 O/U off Thur gm... 3-0 O/U Gm 4... 6-1 O/U away aft score 40+ pts... 4-1 O/U bef NYG... but 0-5 O/U vs NFC North
MINN: 6-1 O/U vs opp off SU win 21 > pts... 5-2 O/U gm 4... but 0-4 O/U L4 vs Atl (36.5)... 0-4 O/U bef Thu gm... 1-5 O/U aft NOrl
NOrl: 3-0 O/U L3 vs Dal (62.7)... 2-0 O/U aft Min... 2-0 O/U Gm 4... 9-1 O/U as non-div conf RF’s... 6-1 O/U vs NFC East
DAL: 4-0 O/U Gm 4... 3-0 O/U in 1st of BB HG’s... 2-0 O/U bef Hou... 10-2 O/U as non-div HD’s... 3-1 O/U home vs NFC South
NEng: 5-1 O/U Gm 4... 4-2 O/U on Mondays... but 0-4 O/U L4 vs KC (38.0)... 1-4 O/U as RF’s aft allow 7 > pts
KC: 0-5 O/U on Mondays... 0-4 O/U aft Mia... 0-3 O/U bef SF... 1-6 O/U as non-div HD’s 3 > pts... 1-3 O/U home vs AFC East
BYES: Arizona, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Seattle, St Louis
ODDITIES from last week:
*EVERY single point that was scored in the Raiders / Patriots game was by a ‘owski’! JanikOWSKI scored three FG’s for Oak. GronkOWSKI scored the only TD for New Eng. And GostOWSKI hit 3 FG’s for the Pats. Was it Polish Day at Gillette Stadium?... *The once mighty New England OFFENSE has only 5 total TD’s in three games this season, including NONE in the second halves of any games... *The three NFL teams from our great state of FLORIDA are 1-8 SU and ATS on the season (TBay / Jax / Mia). When does basketball season start?... *The Buffalo Bills scored 29 points at home one week, and only 10 points at home the next... *The Cowboys may have came away with a big road win over the Rams, but they were outstatted by over 100 yards (340 - 448 deficit)... *There were SIX Defensive / Return TD’s last week... to go along with FOUR safeties... *The ‘epic’ passing duel SHOOTOUT in the Lions / Packes game never materialized. Both teams combined for only 385 total passing yards... *The Bengals beat the Tittans by a one-sided margin of 26 pts (33-7). But Tennessee had more total yards in the game... *Total yards in the Browns / Ravens game (23-21) were as close as the score (Balt: 377 / Clev: 375)... *The Seattle Seahawks went from slowest offense last week (only 40 offensive plays) to the 2nd QUICKEST this week (75 plays)... *Quickest offenses last week: Wash (76 plays), Sea (75) Indy, Det (74 plays), Stl (72 plays), KC, New Eng, NYG 71)... *Slowest offenses last week: GBay (51 plays), Dal (52), Car, Min (54), Cleve, Jax (55)... *Cincinnati has won 11 STRAIGHT regular-season home games in a row... *The Raiders have lost 15 STRAIGHT games in a row in the Eastern Time Zone... *The Jaguars have been outscored 119-27 since leading Phily 17-0 at halftime of their opener.