Today’s free play is on a college football game that was hit hard by a couple of syndicates earlier this week. The line has moved some but I still feel this is playable, and it’s on my Saturday personal card.
09/27 CF (165) NOTRE DAME vs. (166) SYRACUSE (East Rutherford, NJ)
FREE PICK: (166) SYRACUSE +9.5
I’m always on the lookout for what I feel are misleading results. These are games where the stat profile clearly points to one side having won the game, but the final score ends up getting flipped. It’s by no means an automatic that I’ll be on or against a team off one of these games the next week, but it’s definitely an attention getter as I start to break down that next contest.
Syracuse is off a game that fits this category. The Orange basically blew Maryland out on the stat sheet last week. But they sure didn’t do so on the scoreboard, as the Terrapins actually won the game easily. Syracuse put up some big numbers in the loss. Unfortunately, they either couldn’t finish off their drives, or made a mistake at the worst possible moment, and the result was a frustrating loss.
The Orange cannot afford to make those errors again today as they’re stepping up in class to face a good Notre Dame team. The Irish aren’t what I’d call under the radar, as that’s basically an impossibility for any Notre Dame team. QB Everett Golson has looked terrific in leading the Irish to three straight wins, and it looks to me as though a double digit win campaign is a definite possibility for Notre Dame.
But I also think the Irish could end up in some close games, and this looks as though it could be one of those types. I’m not sold on the Notre Dame running game and I think Golson is only at his best in a balanced attack. If the Irish have to throw 35-40 times, it’s probably not a good thing.
That could be the case here, as I’m impressed with Syracuse’s rush defense. And that’s the key to today’s game from this vantage point. Syracuse needs to run it reasonable well and continue to limit the opposition in that area. The data says they’re entirely capable of doing exactly that, and if that’s the case we’ve got a game that could well go right down to the last possession.
I thought the early number on this game was considerably higher than it ought to have been. Apparently, some respected syndicates and pro bettors felt the same way as the Orange were hit pretty hard early in the week. The action has leveled off since but this number is still in the playable zone, albeit with the optimum price long gone.
Without going into complete detail, this game fits a defensive dog formula that I’ve played with success over the years. I also like the fact that we have what I call a misleading result from last week that dictates a play this week under the right conditions. I don’t think this is a great money line risk, but taking close to doubles with Syracuse is what I believe to be a decent gamble.
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