Great pick last night, Denver Money. I like your New Mexico pick as well.
New Mexico is improving slowly but surely under Bob Davie. New Mexico currently has the #3 rushing attack in yards per game in FBS. They're only behind Georgia Southern and Wisconsin and ahead of Navy and BC. Fresno's rush defense is #107, down there with Kent State, App State and UMass. Sure, Fresno played a tough schedule but they weren't competitive in any of those games.
Fresno's passing attack has fallen to #42 from #1 last year. Sure, you can blame some of it on the level on competition but it looks like losing David Carr and his two best receivers is having a much bigger on Fresno than anticipated.
I like New Mexico to win outright but I think I'll keep those 5 points in my back pocket just to be sure.