NFL Week Two results / Week Three OU lines
Week One’s average OU line in the NFL was 45.6 points. Average points-per-game was 42.6. The average game went UNDER by -3.0 ppg. For the 2nd week in a row, there were 7 OVERS... and 9 UNDERS overall. After two weeks of the season, NFL games have gone 14-18 O/U. Not a big change from last year at this time (16-16 O/U).
In this week’s Game Two, the average OU line is very similar at 45.4 points (as of Tuesday morning). Here’s your review of Week Two from the last five years. We list the year... the average Week 1 OU line... the actual total of combined points scored... the OU margin... and the actual OU results. After the extreme high-scoring year of 2011, the OU results have been more balanced in the last two years.
2014: 45.4
2013: 45.1 / 46.3 / +2.2 ppg / 7-9 O/U
2012: 45.5 / 45.9 / +0.4 ppg / 6-10 O/U
2011: 44.3 / 40.3 / -4.0 ppg / 6-10 O/U
2010: 41.6 / 43.4 / +1.8 ppg / 9-7 O/U
Here comes the BYE Weeks!
Week Two of the 2014 NFL schedule will be the last FULL week (16 games) until we get to late November. Next week, a full SIX teams will already be taking their Week of Rest. Those teams are: Arizona, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Seattle, and St Louis. So during this two-month period, we’ll always be on the prowl for any PRE-Bye of POST-Bye Over / Under patterns that might apply. For now, we will take note of this high-scoring pattern that took place last season: In the 2013 NFL season, NFL non-division teams playing BEFORE their Bye Week went 18-7 O/U. That’s an OVER percentage of 72%. We’ll see if those ‘higher-than-anticipated’ scoring results carry over to this year. The five non-division teams playing THIS week before their Bye are: BENGALS / BRONCOS / DOLPHINS / RAMS / SEAHAWKS.
NFL Week Three OVER / UNDER patterns
The third week of the 2014 NFL season is upon us. Every season, I review all previous Totals Tipsheets and check the progress of any OU situations that were in the ‘All Systems are Go’ section for that particular week. There are some OU situations that are definitely worth a second look. So without further ado, here’s some very interesting Over and Under patterns that apply during this week of the season.
23-5 O/U since 2003 / 12-2 O/U since 2007: All GAME THREE home teams playing off BB ‘Unders’ in their first 2 games... with a game line of < 7 pts (ARIZ / BUF / CAR / STL).
17-3 O/U since 2005: All GAME THREE non-conference games (AFC vs NFC)... with an OU line of < 43 points (HOU vs NYG / PIT vs CAR).
20-9 O/U since 2007: All GAME THREE undefeated home teams (ARZ / BUF / CAR / CIN / PHIL). Home FAVS have gone 12-2 O/U whem the OU line is < 47 pts (BUF / CAR / CIN).
1-16 O/U since 2002: All GAME THREE winless non-division road teams... when the OU line is > 41 points (OAK / KC).
0-7 O/U last 5 years: All GAME THREE teams playing their FIRST road game of the season... when the OU line is > 41 points (BALT / DEN / TBAY).
2-14 O/U since 2009 / 1-11 O/U last 3 years: All GAME THREE underdogs playing off BB ‘Overs’ in their first 2 games (GBAY / JAX).
Series HISTORY Over / Under patterns of note
Minnesota Vikings @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: 5-1 O/U last 5 (53.8 combined ppg)....
San Francisco 49ers @ ARIZONA CARDINALS: 4-1 O/U last 5 (40. ppg)...
Pittsburgh Steelers @ CAROLINA PANTHERS: 3-1 O/U last 3.
Baltimore Ravens @ CLEVELAND BROWNS: 0-7 O/U last 7 (34.1 ppg)...
Indianpolis Colts @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: 0-6 O/U last 6 (34.7 ppg)...
Houston Texans @ NY GIANTS: 0-3 O/U last 3 (32.7 ppg)...
The 2-minute handicap… O/U style
TBAY: 4-0 O/U on Thursdays... 6-1 O/U bef Pit... but 0-3 O/U Gm 3... 1-7 O/U as div RD’s 7 < pts... 3-6 O/U aft Stl
ATL 3-1 O/U L4 H vs TBay (52.5)... 3-1 O/U Gm 3 home... but 0-2 O/U Thursdays... 1-6 O/U aft Cin... 2-8 O/U bef Min
SD: 4-0 O/U aft Sea... 4-1 O/U dogs off SU dog win... 3-1 O/U away vs AFC East... but 0-3 O/U Gm 3... 0-4 O/U bef Jax
BUF: 4-1 O/U in 2nd of BB HG’s... 8-2 O/U Gm 2... 3-1 O/U non-div HF / HD 3 < pts... 4-2 O/U vs AFC West... but 1-3 O/U bef Hou
DAL: 3-0 O/U aft Ten... 6-1 O/U dogs in 2nd of BB RG’s... 6-1 O/U off road dog win... but 0-6 O/U Gm 3... 0-6 O/U vs NFC West
STL: 10-3 O/U bef Bye... 3-1 O/U off road dog win... but 0-4 O/U aft TBay... 0-3 O/U bef Phil... 1-5 O/U L6 vs Dal (37.0)
WASH: 4-0 O/U off non-conf HG... 3-1 O/U vs opp off Mon gm... but 1-7 O/U as div RD’s... 1-4 O/U bef Thur gm... 2-5 O/U Gm 3
PHIL: 3-0 O/U off Mon gm... 3-0 O/U aft Ind... but 0-9 O/U as div HF’s... 0-4 O/U Gm 3... 2-6 O/U L8 home vs Was (39.1)
HOU: 4-1 O/U bef Chi... 6-2 O/U away vs NFC... 6-2 O/U Gm 3... but 0-4 O/U aft Oak... 1-3 O/U vs NFC East
NYG: 6-0 O/U bef Thur gm... 3-1 O/U home vs AFC... but 0-5 O/U Gm 3... 0-3 O/U L3 vs Hou (32.7)... 0-3-1 O/U bef Wash
MIN: 3-0 O/U bef Atl... 5-1 O/U aft NEng... 5-1 O/U L6 vs NOrl (53.8)... 3-1 O/U off non-conf HG... but 1-5 O/U A vs NFC South
NORL: 5-1 O/U off non-conf RG... 5-1 O/U as HF 6 > pts off BB RG’s... 4-1 O/U off BB SU L... 3-1 O/U aft Clev... but 0-2 O/U Gm 3
TEN: 4-1-1 O/U vs AFC North... 4-2 O/U bef Ind... 4-2 O/U L6 vs Cin (46.0)... but 1-4 O/U in 1st of BB RG... 1-3 O/U Gm 2
CIN: 7-1 O/U in 2nd of BB HG... 4-1 O/U bef Bye... 4-1-1 O/U vs AFC South... 3-1 O/U aft Atl... 4-2 O/U Gm 2
BALT: 3-1 O/U Gm 3... 6-2 O/U aft Pit... but 1-5 O/U in 2nd of BB div gms... 1-4 O/U off home win 20 > pts... 1-3 O/U off Thur gm
CLEV: 4-0 O/U in 2nd of BB HG... 3-1 O/U aft NOrl... but 0-7 O/U L7 vs Bal (34.1)... 1-4 O/U vs opp off SU win 20 > pts
GBAY: 4-0 O/U off non-conf HG... 7-1 O/U aft NYJ... 6-2 O/U bef Chi... 5-2 O/U as div RD’s... but 1-6 O/U in 1st of 3 straight div gms
DET: -1 o/U aft score 7 < pts... 7-2 O/U home in between RG... but 1-4 O/U vs div revenge... 1-4 O/U L5 home vs GB (38.4)
IND: 3-0 O/U off Mon gm... 11-2 O/U bef Ten... 7-2 O/U as div RF’s... but 0-6 O/U L6 vs Jac (34.7)... 0-4 O/U aft Phil
JACK: 4-0 O/U aft score 10 < pts... 3-0 O/U aft Wash... but 0-3-1 O/U in 1st HG... 1-8 O/U as div HD’s... 1-3 O/U Gm 3
OAK: 4-0 O/U Gm 3... 8-2 O/U vs AFC East... 3-1 O/U aft Hou... but 3-9 O/U off home loss 14 > pts... 3-9 O/U in 1st of BB RG
NENG: 6-1 O/U off non-conf RG... 4-1 O/U bef Mon gm... 3-1 O/U Gm 3... but 1-3 O/U aft Min... 2-5 O/U non-div HF’s > 10 pts
SF: 5-1 O/U at Chi... 4-1 O/U L4 vs Arz (40.4)... but 0-3 O/U Gm 3... 0-3 O/U bef Phil... 2-9 O/U as div RF’s < 10 pts
ARZ: 4-1 O/U home off BB SU W... 8-3 O/U bef Bye Week... but 1-5 O/U Gm 3... 1-4 O/U off road dog win... 1-4 O/U as HD’s 5 < pts
DEN: 5-0 O/U at KC... 3-0 O/U bef Bye... 6-1 O/U vs NFC West... 5-1 O/U L6 as underdogs... but 1-3-1 O/U in 1st RG
SEA: -1 O/U bef Bye... 4-1 O/U bef Mon gm... 6-2 O/U L8 vs Den (50.0)... 7-3 O/U vs AFC West... but 1-4 O/U off SU fav loss
KC: 3-0 O/U aft Den... 3-1 O/U non-div RD’s 5 < pts... but 0-3 O/U Gm 3... 1-6 O/U bef NEng... 2-7 O/U off div RG
MIA: 5-0 O/U in 2st HG... but 0-4 O/U bef Oak... 0-3 O/U aft Buf... 1-7 O/U vs opp off BB SU losses... 1-3 O/U L4 home vs KC (33.3)
PIT: 5-0 O/U Gm 3... 3-0 O/U bef Jax... 4-1 O/U off Thur RG... 4-1 O/U 2nd of BB RG... 13-3 O/U aft Balt... but 2-5 O/U aft score 7 <
CAR: 4-0 O/U vs opp off Hur gm... 3-1 O/U aftDet... 3-1 O/U L4 vs Pit (41.0)... 7-3 O/U vs opp off SU L 20 >... but 0-6 O/U Gm 2
CHI: 4-0 O/U away vs NFC L2Y... 4-1 O/U off road dog win... 7-2 O/U bef GB... 3-1 O/U Monday RG... but 1-3 O/U Gm 3
NYJ: 9-0 O/U Gm 3... 7-0 O/U aft GB... 4-1 O/U vs NFC North... but1-7 O/U L8 vs Chi (32.3)... 1-3 O/U on Mondays