09/20 05:00 PM CF (365) CLEMSON at (366) FLORIDA STATE
FREE PICK: (365) CLEMSON +16.5
The early line on what is one of the big games on the Saturday slate has been adjusted. Florida State was as high as -20.5 at one point. But the announcement that Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston will be suspended for first half of the Clemson game forced the number down, and we’re now seeing -16.5 or -17 as the current tag.
Winston is definitely worth three points for one half of football on my ratings, which is about as much as any one player would be valued at. Sean Maguire was a highly regarded recruit in his own right, but he’s certainly lacking big game experience and simply isn’t as good as the amazing talented Winston.
I would be shocked if Clemson doesn’t try to confuse Maguire as much as possible and it’s my guess that the Tigers should be prepared to see a ground-oriented Seminoles attack for the first half of this game. No count the ‘Noles would love to get a big jump on this rival, but logic dictates that they’re most likely to just ask Maguire to manage the offense until Winston makes his appearance after halftime. This might indicate waiting for a first half line to appear and playing the game that way. But the oddsmakers are going to shorten the first half price, so I’m not so sure there will be any value in going that route.
There’s more than just the Winston suspension in play for me here. I am not seeing any real dominance from the Florida State defense thus far. Maybe that changes on Saturday night in Tallahassee. But right now the Seminoles appear vulnerable to the run, and they remain somewhat banged up along the defensive front as well. The Tigers have some talented RB’s and I like the chances of them having success overland in this battle.
This is not cinch by any means. I’ll freely admit that I’m worried about the Clemson mindset if they fall behind early on Saturday. The Tigers were absolutely demolished by FSU last season. But right now I’m not seeing Florida State being at the same level they were a season ago, and let’s face it, that enormous Seminoles rep is alway going to get put into the betting line. In other words, there are no bargains to be had with Florida State.
I’m banking on Clemson putting its best foot forward here and Florida State playing things safe for at least the first half. If that’s the case, i feel reasonably confident that taking 17 will be enough to get me a winner, and therefore Clemson is the choice.
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