In Week 1 NFL last year; five games finished with double digit ATS margins:
Broncos 49, Ravens 26
Blowout, Denver just killed 'em
"oh don't overreact to one game" they all said.
Denver 3-0 ATS next three weeks, 11-5 ATS for the season.
Ravens 2-1 ATS next 3 weeks (covers vs Browns & Texans, both worse than they were, lol). Season: 7-9 ATS
Dolphins 23 - Browns 10
"oh don't overreact to one game" they all said.
Browns failed to cover in Week 2, then switched QB's to Hoyer, covered three straight till he got hurt, then went 3-8 ATS the rest of the way.
Miami covered the next two weeks, then got destroyed in New Orleans on Monday Night, then had Jonathan Martin/Richie Incognito happen, then managed to cover six out of seven before an 0-2 finish
Titans 16, Steelers 9
Huge upset, a la Buffalo at Chicago this year.
"oh don't overreact to one game" they all said.
Pittsburgh 0-3 ATS next three weeks, 9-7 ATS for the year (7-1 ATS L8)
Tennessee 2-0-1 ATS next 3 weeks, then Locker got hurt.
Chiefs 28 - Jaguars 2
"oh don't overreact to one game" they all said.
Chiefs start 9-0, while going 4-1 ATS next five games
Jags start 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS, only cover was +26.5 at Denver.
This game is the poster child for the 'overreacting to Week 1 works" theory
Eagles 33, Redskins 27
misleading final score, was 33-7 and garbage time by early 3rd quarter.
"oh don't overreact to one game" they all said.
And here, that was at least half right. Philly was overrated following that national TV win (MNF) and went 0-3 ATS in their next three games; 8-8 for the year.
But what the Redskins showed Week 1 was very real: 1-3 ATS next 4 weeks and 5-11 ATS for the year, a true pointspread bottom feeder.
Add it up and we're looking at 7-3 ATS in Week 2 just blindly betting on the teams that looked really good and betting against the teams that looked really bad in Week 1, covering or failing to cover by more than 10 points.
And while quants won't respect this, I don't want a long term sample size or care about long term 'Week 1 overreaction' results. I want an accurate representation of what the markets are doing circa 2013 and 2014, not a reflection of what they were doing five, ten or twenty years ago.
Here are the 10+ point ATS margin games/teams from Week 1 in 2014:
Seattle - Green Bay, Minnesota - St Louis, Tennessee - Kansas City, New England - Miami, Buffalo - Chicago (barely, right at 9.5 or 10 points depending on whether you graded the closing line at -7 (most square books) or -6.5 (most sharp books) and maybe Carolina - Tampa. I' not 'counting this one because the Panthers opened as chalk over the summer but bettors moved the line seven points before kickoff, resulting in a double digit margin at the close, but only a four point margin at the opener.
Theory says look to bet on:
Seahawks -5.5 (pre MNF line)
Vikings +3.5
Titans -4
Dolphins are playing the Bills; can't bet on both.
Theory says bet against:
Packers (bet Jets +8)
Rams (bet Bucs -5.5)
Chiefs (bet Broncos -13)
Patriots (already have Vikings +3.5 on the 'look to bet on' list)
Bears (bet 49ers -7)
I'm certainly not going to bet them all blind based on a one year sample size. In fact, there's one game where I'm absolutely considering betting the opposite of what the theory suggests, based solely on my handicap of the matchup. But there are a good handful of sides on the above list that are probably worth considering as you begin your process for Week 2.
What do you guys think about those sides? Any you like? Any you wouldn't touch with a ten foot pole? I'm interested to hear, please share your thoughts.
teddy