Haven't had the time I usually do lately, but since I do now, here's my thoughts on Friday.
978 CWS1.5 (-135) SportsInterAction vs 977 TOR |
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Analysis: Thought seriously about the ML as well as the over. My numbers and their numbers say the same thing. I know Edwin is probably back tonight, FWIW. Stroman's road numbers just aren't solid here. I know the White Sox bullpen sucks. If they were all that easy, nobody would ever lose.
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Washington's first game back from a six game roadie after playing a night game, while the Pirates simply played poorly in Detroit but still are in a playoff race. Not sure Roark isn't a little too pricey at -150 here, especially since Washington isn't as solid against RHP as LHP. Morton can be serviceable, but I don't really trust the Pirates pen. Werth still questionable. At 7 I do lean over. It certainly won't go to 6.5.
Total disrespect for Woods and too much for Wheeler, IMO. The Mets really don't need to be -150 to too many people. With the total as low as it is I can make a good case for the Cubs RL here.
Cahill is instinctively a better bet on the road, and Brad Hand is what he is. Not terribly sure the Fish need to be -140, either, but, Cahill is actually tougher on RHH's which could take Stanton/McGehee out of the equation a bit. Lean under and simply can't take the D-Backs with zero bullpen.
Earlier in the season Tyson Ross was a go-to pitcher and Lynn was a fade. Tough to fathom the Cardinals ONLY being -130 to the Padres, but San Diego does have a better bullpen. No doubt I lean under, and perhaps this is the public disaster of the day at -130 since they are begging us to take the Cardinals.
The Reds go from reasonable dogs with Simon to -150 with Cueto, yet the total is still 9, not far off of the De La Rosa/Simon game Thursday. Have to think the under might be in play here, and with the Reds having some difficulty with LHP (I know it's Morales) I could see thinking about the Rockies RL. We'll see who plays and who doesn't first.
I'm not taking Grienke at -170 to a first place team. Obviously paying a premium, and IMO the better bet is the Brewers. Dodgers flying back from Atlanta is also a "yellow flag" as well.
Another game that looks odd is the Giants. That's about as cheap as you've been able to get Bumgarner in a couple of years, so again that one may look a bit too easy. I hate to take the Phillies, not ever knowing what you'll get, but Hamels at that price versus an offense that's not doing much is the only thing I can look at right now.
Porcello at only -125 to Paxton is another one that seems to say "not so fast, my friends". Paxton is clearly backed by a far better bullpen, too. That total of 8 is perhaps a bit too high, and with the Mariners rested, it may be worth a shot to take the dog here.
Since the Indians struggle far more w/RHP, this MAY be the time the Kluber is too expensive. I am not a Chen fan by any means, but almost without looking I could see taking the Orioles, at the very least on the RL.
I think instinctively people would want to back McCarthy just based on what he's been able to do since joining the Yankees. That may be the right side here, since the Rays play in Texas Thursday night, in the heat, then fly home to play the rested Yankees with the far better closer(s) in Betances and Roberson.
Yet another game in Boston that simply looks to simple. The Red Sox at home against a LHP and their only -135. Something is not quite right there. I never trust Buccholz and if the Red Sox use much bullpen on Thursday, Keuchel and his ground balls may be a very viable option.
I know Martinez is not very good, but -200 on the road is just not happening. Since the Angels are assured of 27 outs being the road team, I could see laying the RL here, especially since they're coming in rested.
I knew Duffy would be good one day, but -165 on the road, even to the Twins, is perhaps a bit much for me to swallow. Twins are rested and Nolasco is at least capable. Twins just took three of four on the road, so Twins RL or nothing, IMO.
Another perhaps live home team with the White Sox. At some point Stroman becomes over priced, and it could be here. Toronto still dinged and the White Sox CAN hit. Noesi CAN pitch once in a while. Because of the White Sox lack of any bullpen and without looking at the weather, this game could go over.
No chance I ever back Alex Wood and his fly balls. Oakland or nothing, and with both pens being solid, perhaps under given the A's have no DH and there's no familiarity with the pitchers. Maybe a great F5 under there.