We put this out the other day, but here it is again. We don't bet too many exhibition games in week one (although we should) just because we're still focused on making money in baseball (+37 since the All-Star Break). But, when we see games we really like, we certainly are willing. Tomorrow is the last day for NFL packages, which keeps being stressed because it IS inexpensive. Ours is here Dave' Season Long CFB/NFL Packages and we've already released TWO CFB 3* plays. This is the kind of work we plan on doing all year, and from yesterdays' MLB thread. We'll be giving thoughts on most all games, even the ones we don't play, like Wednesday.
I could make a sharp case for the Fish seeing as how the Pirates are also without Walker (rest) and Alvarez, but the line doesn't seem to be reflecting that. Somehow, I think both teams score and hate the Pirates pen.
I also wanted the road Giants, because Gallardo is way over due to get crushed, but he's also more effective against LHP and the Giants lineup is full of them. Giants pen much better lately, too.
I want to take the home dog Rockies, but just can't get there, nor can I wrap my head around the Cubs being road favorites, but they probably are the right side.
A lot of people like the Orioles, and although I can't really disagree because the Jays lineup sucks, my gut tells me to pass.
I do think the Phillies are winners, but have a hard time laying -140 with them. Peacock sucks and the Phillies have their A team except for Dominic Brown.
I'll pass the Reds game "just because" we never get them right. I'd like to think it goes over 7.
I really want to take Boston w/Kelly against his old team, and might still.
The D-backs game is all about Ventura. He pitches well, they win, he doesn't, they lose. I can't lay -140 on the road with them, but can't get behind the D-backs w/o Goldschmidt, either.
Not sure how you don't just take the Dodgers RL, and doubt it's a pitchers' duel, really. But, tons of tickets on the over and still hasn't gone to the key number of 9.
Very tough games with injuries, rested players, teams that have little to play for.
Free NFL Play:
252 NYJ (-175) BetOnline vs 251 IND |
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Analysis: I don't go crazy on these first week games, but I fully expect the Jets to win and will play it small at the ML. A big key in these games is the backups, obviously, and we have made a nice chunk of change in NFLX by being aware of who's playing, and when. Typically when things break down, which in week one is sooner rather than later, a lot of these games are decided by the sheer athleticism of QB's and RB's. Here we've probably got Vick coming in against a B team, and at worst Taj Boyd perhaps later, who can run, which is what we love when things break down. We either want the simple athlete against backups, or the QB that is super familiar with the offense and has played against some tougher competition in college, like an SEC guy. More on how we're gonna do this as the week/month progresses.
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