Take the Cincinnati Reds +105 (#969)
It’s not hard to make a case for betting against Josh Tomlin, even when he’s facing light hitting Cincinnati. Tomlin was 3-2 with a 3.12 ERA in early June, but then the bottom dropped out, allowing four runs or more in seven of eight starts before getting sent back down to AAA.
His lone appearance in Columbus was mediocre, but now he’s back in the Indians rotation because they simply don’t have many attractive options. Still working his way back from Tommy John surgery, Tomlin has been lit up in each of his last four starts here at Progressive Field; 0-3 with a7.77 ERA. I’m not expecting a shutdown performance here, to put it mildly.
The Reds are 5-0 in Johnny Cueto’s five career starts against the Indians, and Cueto has a 2.10 ERA in those contests – a strong track record against this lineup. Cueto is in stellar current form; 4-0 with a 2.30 ERA in his last five starts. The .500 level Reds are 8-2 in Cueto’s last ten trips to the hill – this is the guy they win for. And Cinci’s bullpen behind him has been stellar since the All Star break, a huge part of the reason the Reds have cashed Unders at a 75% clip since the All Star Break.
But the key here isn’t just the starting pitching matchup -- it’s the Reds expected intensity level. Manager Bryan Price was furious following yesterday’s lethargic defeat. “What was disappointing and unacceptable tonight was the fact that we didn't have our head in the game at all. Especially those first five innings." I’m expecting a strong bounceback showing from the Reds for their ace tonight. Take Cinci.