Sac's Saturday Card (5 PACK is now final)

Last post 07-04-2009, 4:03 PM by l999TL. 12 replies.
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  • 07-04-2009, 8:55 AM

    • Sac Lawson
    • Top 50 Contributor
    • Joined on 10-19-2008
    • Eugene, OR
    • Pro Draft Prospect
    • Points 47,292

    Sac's Saturday Card (5 PACK is now final)

    Hopefully i can continue that solid run i've been on, i'll probably play 4 plays total today.. because i'm 90% sure i'm taking tomorrow off.  I leave around 6 am tomorrow morning for vacation so unless i cap tomorrow's card tonight, i won't have time. 

    Atlanta/Washington under 8.5 (1.5/1.58) WIN - Originally i was looking at the side for this game, and i kept telling myself that the youngster, hanson, hasn't lost yet as a Brave.  I wanted to pull the trigger on him as i think he'll continue to impress, but Lannan has been so great at home for the Nats that i couldn't bring myself to do so.  That's where i see this being a solid value on the under.  Hanson has indeed been great with a 1.54 ERA on the road, and not giving up a single earned run in his last three starts.  Lannan, also, has been great at home all season with a 2.06 ERA in DC.  He's made it into the 7th in every home start this season and never given up more than 3 earned runs.  Both these starters will lock down the opponents, my one concern, though, is the bullpens.  The Atlanta pen certainly doesn't scare me as much as the Nats pen, but we can be a little more at ease knowing that this season in the game following an Atlanta hitting explosion (which i define as seven runs or more) they have only averaged 3.5 runs per game the following day (this number being a bit inflated by two outliers: a 12 run follow up and an 11 run follow up.... the majority of their following day games were under 5 runs).  UNDER is the play

    Chicago Sox -118 (1.5/1.27) LOSSHochevar has actually been very solid lately, but i'm still not convinced he's a great pitcher. This is a guy that is always capable of a blow up.  Floyd on the other hand has only given up 9 earned runs in his last 58 innings.  He's been lights out lately, which is why i just can't pass up a near pick em line against a KC team that has averaged under 2 runs per game their last 8 games.  This team is really struggling to hit the ball, CWS has won the last 6 games between these two teams, and i look for Floyd to continue pitching well and the Sox to grab another win to continue their impressive 5 game road win streak, 7 game streak overall.

    ADDING:

    LA Dodgers -137  (2.0/1.46) LOSS - Not many stats to back this one, Wolf has been decent on the road with an ERA under 4, Geer has been decent lately, but is really nothing special.  I think Manny will make a good impact tonight, but i really like Wolf's success against lefties to be the difference in this one.  If he can keep Adrian under wraps, the dodgers, being the far better team, should win another one in san diego.

    Tampa Bay -1.5 +125 (1.5/1.88) - The key here is the fact that Holland has been horrible at home this year, with an ERA of 9 and a record of 1-4.  On top of that Texas has lost his last 7 starts.  I really see this game being a run fest, so to me the only advantage i'll look at is which pitching staff has the capability to contain the opposing teams lineup.  I really see that staff being that of the TB rays.  Price is money against righties and Texas is a right hand dominate lineup.  i really feel like Price will hold his own, and Holland will get rocked.  In a high scoring game like this, i see no point in taking the moneyline.  We'll go large with -1.5. 

    Colorado -1.5 Even (1.5/1.5) - Arizona has not won a game that Petit has started all season, on top of that they are one of the worst teams in baseball in scoring on the road.  Arizona faces Colorado's staff ace tonight in Aaron Cook, so they're road struggles aren't looking to be fixed tonight.  If they can't score runs, they'll be in big trouble with Petit on the mound, and being followed by a bullpen that is top 5 worst in the majors.  Betting against Arizona on the road is always a safe bet, but in this case we have a starting pitcher for Colorado who has been great lately, along with a starter on the other side that has been horrible all season.  Runline it is. 

    CBB: 158-115 (+50.30)
    NBA: 64-46 (+20.91)


    www.saclawson.com
    twitter.com/sac_lawson



    • Post Points: 17
  • 07-04-2009, 9:04 AM

    Re: Sac's Saturday Card (2 Early plays up)

    SacLunch:

    Hopefully i can continue that solid run i've been on, i'll probably play 4 plays total today.. because i'm 90% sure i'm taking tomorrow off.  I leave around 6 am tomorrow morning for vacation so unless i cap tomorrow's card tonight, i won't have time. 

    Atlanta/Washington under 8.5 (1.5/1.58) - Originally i was looking at the side for this game, and i kept telling myself that the youngster, hanson, hasn't lost yet as a Brave.  I wanted to pull the trigger on him as i think he'll continue to impress, but Lannan has been so great at home for the Nats that i couldn't bring myself to do so.  That's where i see this being a solid value on the under.  Hanson has indeed been great with a 1.54 ERA on the road, and not giving up a single earned run in his last three starts.  Lannan, also, has been great at home all season with a 2.06 ERA in DC.  He's made it into the 7th in every home start this season and never given up more than 3 earned runs.  Both these starters will lock down the opponents, my one concern, though, is the bullpens.  The Atlanta pen certainly doesn't scare me as much as the Nats pen, but we can be a little more at ease knowing that this season in the game following an Atlanta hitting explosion (which i define as seven runs or more) they have only averaged 3.5 runs per game the following day (this number being a bit inflated by two outliers: a 12 run follow up and an 11 run follow up.... the majority of their following day games were under 5 runs).  UNDER is the play

    Chicago Sox -118 (1.5/1.27) -  Hochevar has actually be very solid lately, but i'm still not convinced he's a great pitcher. This is a guy that is always capable of a blow up.  Floyd on the other hand has only given up 9 earned runs in his last 58 innings.  He's been lights out lately, which is why i just can't pass up a near pick em line against a KC team that has averaged under 2 runs per game their last 8 games.  This team is really struggling to hit the ball, CWS has won the last 6 games between these two teams, and i look for Floyd to continue pitching well and the Sox to grab another win to continue their impressive 5 game road win streak, 7 game streak overall.

    BEST OF LUCK SAC
    • Post Points: 9
  • 07-04-2009, 9:12 AM

    • Gballard
    • Top 200 Contributor
    • Joined on 06-21-2006
    • TN
    • Prep School
    • Points 5,994

    Re: Sac's Saturday Card (2 Early plays up)

    Good luck Sac I like that Under and it just moved to 9 so try to grab that number if you can

    • Post Points: 9
  • 07-04-2009, 9:17 AM

    • Sac Lawson
    • Top 50 Contributor
    • Joined on 10-19-2008
    • Eugene, OR
    • Pro Draft Prospect
    • Points 47,292

    Re: Sac's Saturday Card (2 Early plays up)

    Gballard:

    Good luck Sac I like that Under and it just moved to 9 so try to grab that number if you can

     

    Call me stupid.. but i knew it would move to 9 and for some reason i wanted to take 8.5 at +105 rather than 9 at -125 ... haha really not a smart move from a gambling standpoint, but + lines make me happy Party!!!

    CBB: 158-115 (+50.30)
    NBA: 64-46 (+20.91)


    www.saclawson.com
    twitter.com/sac_lawson



    • Post Points: 5
  • 07-04-2009, 9:30 AM

    Re: Sac's Saturday Card (2 Early plays up)

    Good luck Sac happy 4th pal !!!!!

    MONEY WON IS TWICE AS SWEET AS MONEY EARNED!!
    • Post Points: 5
  • 07-04-2009, 9:31 AM

    Re: Sac's Saturday Card (2 Early plays up)

    Any feel on the Cubs?

    MONEY WON IS TWICE AS SWEET AS MONEY EARNED!!
    • Post Points: 9
  • 07-04-2009, 9:37 AM

    • Sac Lawson
    • Top 50 Contributor
    • Joined on 10-19-2008
    • Eugene, OR
    • Pro Draft Prospect
    • Points 47,292

    Re: Sac's Saturday Card (2 Early plays up)

    BK Professional Sports Betting:

    Any feel on the Cubs?

     

    They are favored by way too much in my opinion.  I really don't like the way Harden has pitched lately, the guy is a strikeout pitcher who is not striking out the big hitters in the opposing teams' lineup.  Teams with power really hurt him (Brewers have tons of power), if you notice his last few decent starts have been against very poor hitting teams (Pitt, SD, Cinci, STL).  I really don't think he should be a huge favorite like he is, the Brewers can definitely hit a few homers off him.  The only reason i wouldn't take Milwaukee is because I've always been a fade Looper guy... but if you're looking for value in that game, milwaukee is a decent play.

    CBB: 158-115 (+50.30)
    NBA: 64-46 (+20.91)


    www.saclawson.com
    twitter.com/sac_lawson



    • Post Points: 9
  • 07-04-2009, 9:45 AM

    Re: Sac's Saturday Card (2 Early plays up)

    SacLunch:

    BK Professional Sports Betting:

    Any feel on the Cubs?

     

    They are favored by way too much in my opinion.  I really don't like the way Harden has pitched lately, the guy is a strikeout pitcher who is not striking out the big hitters in the opposing teams' lineup.  Teams with power really hurt him (Brewers have tons of power), if you notice his last few decent starts have been against very poor hitting teams (Pitt, SD, Cinci, STL).  I really don't think he should be a huge favorite like he is, the Brewers can definitely hit a few homers off him.  The only reason i wouldn't take Milwaukee is because I've always been a fade Looper guy... but if you're looking for value in that game, milwaukee is a decent play.

    Thanks Sac didn't know that about Harden, but your right!!!! I like the Cubs but the M/L to high and what you said about Looper is the same way I feel about him.  Thanks pal.
    MONEY WON IS TWICE AS SWEET AS MONEY EARNED!!
    • Post Points: 5
  • 07-04-2009, 12:31 PM

    • breaKeveN
    • Top 500 Contributor
    • Joined on 04-24-2009
    • Practice Squad
    • Points 2,995

    Re: Sac's Saturday Card (2 Early plays up)

    Good Luck Today Sac, With you on the White Sox play, hoping they'll come through late
    NFL: (3-1) + *5.7 units (75%)
    CBB: (4-8) - *10.1 units (33%)
    NBA: (1-4) - *8.9 units (20%)
    NHL: (8-3-1) + *5.7 units (73%)

    • Post Points: 9
  • 07-04-2009, 12:48 PM

    • Sac Lawson
    • Top 50 Contributor
    • Joined on 10-19-2008
    • Eugene, OR
    • Pro Draft Prospect
    • Points 47,292

    Re: Sac's Saturday Card (2 Early plays up)

     Added Dodgers

    CBB: 158-115 (+50.30)
    NBA: 64-46 (+20.91)


    www.saclawson.com
    twitter.com/sac_lawson



    • Post Points: 9
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