Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres Jul 4 2009 4:10PM
PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers
Your pick will be graded at: -137 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: MLB "Three for One" Special
REASON FOR PICK: 3* #963 DODGERS over SAN DIEGO
While there was a lot of attention paid to the return of Manny Ramirez last night, with the Dodgers exploding for five runs in the very first inning of a game that could be the catalyst for some special times ahead, perhaps the most important aspect of that game was one that will not get much attention � the 4-5 outing from Rafael Furcal, which may be a sign that his early slump is over, and he is ready to be the spark that it is needed atop the order. That spells bad news for N.L. pitchers in the days ahead, particularly for Jonathan Geer today. Geer is a guy that brings nothing special to the mound, pitching to contact since he lacks the velocity to get the ball past hitters at this level, and he particularly has a problem with left-handers, who have hit .300 against him so far this season, with eight home runs in 150 at-bats. The Dodgers bring a lot of quality from that side, with Furcal, Orlando Hudson and Andre Ethier combining to go 5-9 in an earlier home win vs. Geer, and of course there is also Manny, who went 2-3 with a home run and a double in that same game. Pencil Geer in for a tough afternoon in this one.
Meanwhile Randy Wolf can do what most quality left-handers have done against the Padres this season � shut them down, if not out. Wolf has been working the strike zone well, and like the rest of the Los Angeles starters is learning to take advantage of a defense that has rated either #1 or #2 on our best charts every day since the middle of May. And after Wolf has carried the lead to the latter stages there is Jonathan Broxton, who has had arguably the best week that any reliever has had this season � in three nearly flawless outings he has struck out seven of the nine batters that he has faced, including two of three from this mound last night.
The Dodgers bring a better player at every position on the field except 1B, which makes it no surprise that they are 8-3 against the Padres this season. This is a fair price to lay for those advantages.
Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants Jul 4 2009 4:05PM
PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 7 WSEX
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: MLB "Three for One" Special
REASON FOR PICK: 4* #958 SAN FRANCISCO/HOUSTON Under
We have not seen many good swings taken at pitches thrown by Tim Linceceum for a long time. Russ Ortiz might be the single most under-rated starter in the Majors right now. And those are the ingredients for a nice pitchers duel on what will be a typical San Francisco Fourth of July � instead of the intense summer heat that helps the hitters in so many other ball parks, this one will be played in the mid-60�s.
The Lincecum stuff is lights-out right now. He has worked to a 1.27 over his last eight starts, a span in which he has 66 strikeouts vs. only 44 hits allowed, and he is becoming even more dominating now that he is learning to induce a little more contact. He has pitched three complete games in his last four outings, going eight innings in the other, and those 35 innings required only 422 pitches, an amazing 12.1 PPI count. A Houston team that has not had any success in the limited past experience against him faces some difficult times getting untracked here, and while we do not expect the bullpen to be needed for much, all key arms are rested and ready for an under-rated group (their collective full-season allowance is now at 2.85).
Not much was expect from Ortiz this season, and as such some good performances are not being fully appreciated. While his 3.36 for the full campaign speaks volumes, not just how good he has been since going back into the starting rotation � a 2.45 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over those four games, with 19 strikeouts vs. only six walks allowed. But no fireworks went off because he did not get a win in any of those outings. That is why we are able to get those 7�s out there at even money or plus vigorish this afternoon, and with the Astros resorting to the end of their bullpen to absorb last night�s blowout, the best arms are fresh once Ortiz has finished his mission.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals Jul 4 2009 1:10PM
PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 8.5 5Dimes
EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: MLB "Three for One" Special
REASON FOR PICK: 4* #971 CHICAGO WHITE SOX/KANSAS CITY Under
We have cashed two easy 4* Under tickets in this series so far, with the two games combined only producing 10 runs, and there is no reason to not get back in play, with Gavin Floyd and Luke Hochevar both under-rated for this setting, the two offenses still struggling (there have only been two home runs and five walks through two full games), and only the slightest hint of a fatigue issue in the bullpen � the 21 pitches from Scott Linebrink last night (while that is usually a borderline count for a night-to-day transition, he had not previously worked in five days so it should not be a problem here).
The Royals have now scored seven runs in five games on this home stand, and as we have noted each of the last two days it is not necessarily a �slum� � there just is not much there. Now they face the awkward turnaround of going from back-to-back lefties at night to right-hander Gavin Floyd this afternoon, and with the 12:10 local starting time it will mean that they will likely not have the benefit of batting practice to aid that transition. That is a real problem because Floyd is as hot as they come � over his last eight starts it has been a 4-1/1.39, the latter being #3 in the Major Leagues in that time frame, and in his last outing he had the spectacular ratio of 16 ground ball outs and five strikeouts vs. only one fly ball out. When a pitcher is doing that it takes quality at-bats to turn him around, and Kansas City does not bring the tools to do that.
Meanwhile Luke Hochevar is showing the promise that made him a #1 draft choice, but it is hidden in a 3-3/4.96 overall count. He opened June by holding the Blue Jays to two runs on four hits over 6.2 innings of a solid road win, and followed that up with a sparkling 80-pitch complete game win from this mound vs. Cincinnati, allowing one run on three hits. That was followed by a clunker vs. Arizona, but instead of losing his confidence and rhythm Hochevar came right back with a pair of beauties, holding the Astros and Twins to two runs on five hits over 14 frames. That brings his confidence in at a high level for this one, and note that he has already caused problems for the heart of the Chicago order � Jermaine Dye, Paul Konerko, Jim Thome and A. J. Pierzynski are a combined 4-31 against him, and our sources tell us that Thome is likely to be given the afternoon off. Most of those at-bats were against a young pitcher that did not bring the form that he brings today, which has us calling for another solid outing.