I know Stew is away for the weekend and with alot of early games and big plays from cappers I figured I would start the forum. Good luck to all today and enjoy the 4th!

Hondo

July 4, 2009

Hondo posted a modest gain last night when he tossed a splitter with Sox and Sawx to bump the earnings up to 95 berenyis.

Today, he expects Looper to be super at Wrigley -- 10 units on the Brewskis. Also, he'll throw another 10 at the Metamucils, because they seem like regu lar guys.

MLB
Dunkel


LA Dodgers at San Diego
The Padres look to take advantage of a Dodger team that is just 1-5 in Randy Wolf's last 6 starts on the road against teams with a losing record. San Diego is the pick (+145) according to Dunkel, which has the Padres favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+155). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, JULY 4

Game 951-952: Atlanta at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hanson) 14.677; Washington (Lannan) 15.469
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+120); Under

Game 953-954: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Looper) 14.416; Cubs (Harden) 15.581
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-160); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-160); N/A

Game 955-956: St. Louis at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Thompson) 15.361; Cincinnati (Owings) 14.310
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-110); Over

Game 957-958: Houston at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Ortiz) 15.365; San Francisco (Lincecum) 17.086
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-210); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-210); Under

Game 959-960: NY Mets at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Nieve) 14.746; Philadelphia (Moyer) 13.806
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-145); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+135); Over

Game 961-962: Pittsburgh at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Duke) 15.118; Florida (Miller) 14.217
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Florida (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+125); Under

Game 963-964: LA Dodgers at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Wolf) 14.616; San Diego (Geer) 14.765
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+145); Under

Game 965-966: Arizona at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Petit) 15.226; Colorado (Cook) 15.074
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-200); 10
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+180); Under

Game 967-968: Seattle at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Olson) 16.612; Boston (Penny) 15.681
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-220); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+190); Over

Game 969-970: Toronto at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Halladay) 15.272; NY Yankees (Wang) 16.295
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+125); Under

Game 971-972: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 15.195; Kansas City (Hochevar) 15.329
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+120); Under

Game 973-974: Detroit at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Jackson) 15.618; Minnesota (Liriano) 14.160
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-110); Under

Game 975-976: Oakland at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Mazzaro) 14.526; Cleveland (Pavano) 13.728
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Oakland (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-110); Over

Game 977-978: Tampa Bay at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 17.089; Texas (Holland) 15.666
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 11
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-130); Over

Game 979-980: Baltimore at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Berken) 16.244; LA Angels (O'Sullivan) 15.335
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 11
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-155); 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+145); Over 

Cappers Access

cubs
twins 

RatedPicks 7/4 MLB
MLB:
Chicago WhiteSox -119
Colorado Rockies RunLine -1.5 +105
Atlanta Braves RunLine -1.5 +140 

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Toronto (42-39) at N.Y. Yankees (46-33)


The Blue Jays trot out ace right-hander Roy Halladay (10-2, 2.56 ERA) to face struggling righty Chien-Ming Wang (1-6, 10.06) and the Yankees in the second game of a four-game series at Yankee Stadium.


New York rode the arm of A.J. Burnett to a 4-2 victory in Friday�s series opener, with the right-hander allowing two runs on six hits and two walks in seven innings, with seven strikeouts. The Yankees have won eight of their last nine and are on further upticks of 6-0 against right-handers, 6-1 against winning teams and 17-8 in the Bronx.


On the flip side, Toronto is on slides of 1-5 overall, 1-4 against winning teams, 0-4 on Saturday and 3-11 inside the A.L. East, but they are on a 5-1 surge on the road against winning teams.


New York is 3-1 this season against Toronto, after going 8-9 against the Jays last year, and the Yanks are 5-2 in Wang�s last seven home starts against Toronto. But with Halladay on the hill, the Blue Jays are on rolls in this rivalry of 21-7 overall and 10-4 at Yankee Stadium.


Toronto had won seven of nine behind Halladay before losing in his last two starts. On Monday at home against Tampa Bay, Halladay allowed two runs on five hits and two walks in six innings, but his teammates didn�t put up a run until the eighth inning of a 4-1 loss. Halladay is 4-0 with a solid 1.88 ERA in six road starts this year, and he�s 16-5 with a 2.79 ERA in 33 lifetime appearances (31 starts) against the Pinstripes. On May 12, he allowed just one run on five hits, with no walks and five strikeouts, in a complete-game 5-1 home win over New York.


With Halladay starting, Toronto is on runs of 89-43 overall, 13-6 on the road, 4-1 against winning teams and 45-18 in division play.


Wang finally notched his first win of the season last Sunday, yielding two runs on four hits and three walks in 5 1/3 innings of a 4-2 road win against the Mets. The 29-year-old is 0-2 with a whopping 11.57 ERA in four home appearances (three starts) this year, and he�s 4-2 with a 4.63 ERA in nine career starts against Toronto.


New York is 48-23 in Wang�s last 71 starts and 39-16 in his last 55 home outings, but the Mets are on slides behind the right-hander of 1-4 in division play and 2-8 with Wang an underdog.


The under for Toronto is on runs of 6-0-1 overall, 21-8 in the A.L. East and 12-5 on the road, but with Halladay starting, the over is on streaks of 17-6 overall, 8-3 against winning teams, 8-3 in division contests and 7-3 on the road. Likewise, with Wang starting for New York, the over is on rolls of 9-4-1 overall, 11-4-2 against winning teams and 5-1 at home.


ATS ADVANTAGE: TORONTO and OVER



NATIONAL LEAGUE


N.Y. Mets (39-40) at Philadelphia (40-37)


The Phillies send veteran left-hander Jamie Moyer (6-6, 2.05 ERA) to the mound at Citizens Bank Park for the second game of a three-game weekend set with the N.L. East rival Mets, who will counter with right-hander Fernando Nieve (3-1, 2.25).


In Friday�s opener, Philadelphia rolled to a 7-2 victory, putting up all seven runs over the first three innings and coasting from there. The Phillies, though, are still a dismal 14-22 at home this season and are on a number of negative streaks, including 4-12 overall, 2-9 as a favorite, 1-6 at home and 6-16 at home against righties.


New York is 13-7 in its last 20 division contests, but is otherwise on slides of 2-6 overall, 1-6 against winning teams and 1-4 on Saturdays.


The Mets went 4-1 in their first five games of the year against the Phillies, but Philadelphia has rebounded to win the last three in row in this rivalry, and the Phils are 4-1 in Moyer�s last five starts against New York.


Philadelphia has won in three of Moyer�s last four starts, including a 5-4 victory Sunday at Toronto, where the 46-year-old allowed four runs on five hits (three homers) and two walks in just five innings, yet still got the winning decision. Moyer is 2-4 with an inflated 7.15 ERA in seven home starts this season, and he�s 7-5 with a more respectable 3.66 ERA in 20 career starts against the Mets.


However, in back-to-back starts against New York in May -- one at home, one on the road -- he allowed 12 earned runs on 14 hits and six walks in just eight total innings. On May 7 at New York, he got pelted for seven runs on seven hits and two walks in just 2 1/3 innings of a 7-5 loss. Despite those negatives, the Phils are 32-11 in Moyer�s last 43 starts against N.L. East foes.


Nieve won his first three starts of the year, getting plenty of support as the Mets pushed 22 runs across while Nieve allowed just three runs over 18 2/3 innings (1.44 ERA). However, in his last outing, Nieve got roughed up for three runs on 11 hits and a walk in just 3 1/3 innings Monday during a 10-6 loss at Milwaukee. Nieve is 1-1 with a 3.75 ERA in three outings (two starts) on the road this year, and though he�s only pitched 1 1/3 career innings against the Phillies (over five relief appearances), he�s 0-1 with an astronomical 33.75 ERA against them.


The under is on a 12-5-1 roll with the Phils a home chalk and is 7-1 for Philadelphia behind Moyer. The under is also on a 6-2 run for New York in division play. But in this rivalry, the over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings at Citizens Bank Park.


ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA 

John Morrison

7/4 Florida .
Pittsburgh
Note: We've only had to go beyond the bet ONE time in well over a YEAR! 

Root
CC---------------------------------Cincy
Mill--------------------------------Atlanta
Insiders--------------------------LA Dodgers
Perfect Play-------------------Toronto 

 Tony Weston SATURDAY'S PLAYS 35 Dime White Sox

White Sox at Royals
WHITE SOX - Earlier this season the Chicago White Sox couldn�t buy a win against the Kansas City Royals. But after a two-game set in early May, where the Royals picked up the sweep, the White Sox have owned Kansas City.

Since then, Chicago has gone 5-0 against the Royals and will add another to the win column today.

Consider that the Sox haven�t just been hot against Kansas City, they�ve just been hot overall. Over their last 18 games the the White Sox are 14-4. In that stretch, and going a little further, Chicago has been impressive on the road, going 15-4 its last 19 away from the Windy City.

On the other side, the Royals have been their typical selves. They�ve lost 4 straight and are just 4-12 their last 16 games.

Also keep in mind that on the mound Chicago will turn to Gavin Floyd, who has become one of their most reliable pitchers over the last month. Coming into today the White Sox have won 5 of his last 6 starts. In that 6-game stretch Floyd has allowed only 6 earned runs in 42 1/3 innings of work.

Floyd will continue his brilliance and the White Sox will continue their domination of the Royals. Take Chicago on the road in this one.

 Craig Davis
Saturday's Lineup
25 Dime ---- BLUE JAYS (With Halladay and Wang as listed pitchers)

10 Dime ---- BRAVES (With Hanson as listed pitcher)

TORONTO BLUE JAYS (with Halladay and Wang) --- This one comes down to one simple thing... starting pitching, and I'm telling you right now that Roy Halladay will go at least seven innings and the Blue Jays will win this game by at least two runs.

Halladay is having another solid season, winning 10 games while losing just two with a 2.56 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. Halladay has struck out 95 hitters thus far, walking just 14, and even despite coming back from the 15-day DL, Halladay pitched six solid innings in his last outing vs. Tampa Bay. Though he didn't get the win, Halladay still only allowed two earned runs in those six innings but didn't get any run support. Halladay's career numbers against New York look like this: 16-5, a 2.79 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and an opponents' batting average again of just .236. 5 times in his career he's gone the complete 9 innings out of 31 starts and there's a good chance he could do that again this afternoon. The Blue Jays are also 21-7 in Halladay's last 28 starts vs. the Yankees. Numbers don't lie.

The Yankees counter with Chien-Ming Wang, and it goes without saying, he hasn't been good this year. Though he was decent in his very last outing (2 ERs in 5.1 innings pitched), his overall ERA (10.19) should tell you the story of how poorly Wang has pitched this year since coming off last year's devastating injury. The Yankees are still trying to find that 5th starter in the rotation, and so far the job belongs to Wang. The Yankees won game one of this series, 4-2, yesterday, which gives the Jays all the more reason to come out fighting today. Top play of the day on the Blue Jays over the Yankees.


ATLANTA BRAVES (with Hanson) --- Much like the Blue Jays, this play comes down to my man-crush on Tommy Hanson. Hanson has been absolutely untouchable in his last three starts and there's no reason for me to think the Nationals have enough firepower to counter that today.

17.1 innings pitched, no earned runs, and a total of nine hits in those three games. That's pretty masterful even for the most experienced pitcher. We're dealing with a rookie, and I believe that plays right into our hands today. The Nats have not seen Hanson yet this year, so the advantage (at least for this time around) has to fall in the hands of the Braves this afternoon. Atlanta won the first game of this series last night, 9-8, and have won their last four games (after dropping four straight).

John Lannan counters for the Nationals, and although he's been better lately, I'm not sold on the fact he can get the job done at home today. Lannan has faced the Braves twice already this season, dropping both games... one in Washington and one in Atlanta. Though his ERA is solid againt Atlanta, you can't ignore the fact he just can't figure out how to beat the Braves. My money is on the Braves this afternoon as your top bonus play of the day.

Stu's 100 Dime Baseball #1

 Jake Timlin
Saturday's Action
400♦ Colorado Rockies -1 � Runs

Fireworks at Coors field, I look for the Rockies to make easy work of Arizona tonight.

With last night�s series opening 5-0 win the Rockies continue to be the hottest team in the league having won 22 of their last 27 games. Well thanks to pitching of Cook tonight I look for the Rockies to continue to dominate.

Aaron Cook hotter than hot is 5-0 with an ERA of 1.75 in his last five starts as the righty has only allowed 1 earned run in 4 of his last 5 starts.

For Arizona, they counter having lost 12 of their last 14 games and throwing Yusmeiro Petit who is 0-3 with an ERA of 8.03 in five starts on the season.

Flat out, no way do I see tonight�s game being close as Colorado�s pitching and offense is too good for Arizona to match.

In a blowout, go with the Rockies tonight at home.

Al DeMarco
Saturday's Play 5 Dime - COLORADO ROCKIES (Cook) - 1 1/2 Runs over Arizona (Petit)

A lack of better choices has left Arizona in the position of starting Yusmeiro Petit tonight at Colorado. The righthander has been out since May 9 because of an inflamed shoulder and was less than sparkling in his rehab assignment, compiling a 6.89 ERA in five outings, allowing four homers in 15.2 innings. In fact, he was pulled from his most recent start on Tuesday in preparation for his return to the majors after allowing five hits and three runs -- two of which were earned -- in three innings of work.

Prior to landing on the disabled list, Petit had made five starts this season and the Diamondbacks had lost each outing as he allowed 37 baserunners in 22.2 innings with an ERA of 7.55. On of those starts was against the Rockies at home on April 21, a game in which he allowed eight hits and three runs in five innings of work. But the Colorado team Petit faced that day bears little resemblance to the one playing at Coors Field today.

Friday's 5-0 victory in the series opener raised Colorado's record to 22-5 in its last 27 games. Along the way, the Rockies have won six straight and 11 of 13 at home.

Colorado's Aaron Cook has won each of his last five starts, allowing just 31 hits and seven runs over 36 innings for an earned run average of 1.75. He'll be facing an Arizona club that's lost 11 of its last 13, including three in a row, a stretch in which the Diamondbacks have scored a total of two runs, getting shutout twice, lowering their major league-worst batting average to .242.

On the moneyline, Colorado is an overwhelming favorite. But on the Run Line, this game is priced at a virtual pick'em, making the Rockies an attractive wagering opportunity considering their recent run of success, Arizona's losing ways and inability to score, and the choice of starting pitchers by the Diamondbacks.

Trace Adams

1000* - St. Louis w/Thompson over Owings (1:10 pm), 500* - Pittsburgh w/Duke over Miller The Cardinals cooled down the Reds a little with the win last night, and I like them to do it once more this afternoon at Great American Ball Park with Brad Thompson on the hill.

Thompson sports 2 wins this year, and both of those wins have come away from home. Sure, he is not the "ace" of the St. Louis staff, but then again can you trust Micah Owings who seems to pitch well every other start?

Ownings is coming off a 6 inning, 1 run win at Cleveland, but the start before was shellacked for 6 runs in 6 innings in a loss at Toronto.

For the season Owings is 5-7 with a 4.85 ERA.

I will take my chances with Thompson getting some run support, and the Cards getting the "W".

1000♦ - St. Louis w/Thompson over Owings

♦♦Note: Both listed pitchers must start, or no action on the play!♦♦

The Marlins are right in the thick of it in the NL East, but the same can be said for the Pirates being right in the thick of it in the NL Central, and Pittsburgh did open the holiday weekend with the 7-4 win last night.

I will give the Bucs the play tonight in the underdog role, as Florida starter Andrew Miller still hasn't figured it out yet, and Pittsburgh did hang a loss on him back on April 20th, as the southpaw allowed 4 runs over his 5 innings of work that night.

Zach Duke has made 3 straight quality starts for Pittsburgh, and the fact is, the Pirates are now 4-0 in this year's season series against the Marlins.

Nice value with the Pirates this afternoon in South Florida.

500♦ - Pittsburgh w/Duke over Miller

♦♦Note: Both listed pitchers must start, or no action on the play!♦

Tom Stryker's 4th of July MLB Blowout - 12-2 Run!
Tom has quietly cashed 12 of his last 14 MLB selections and he's stepping out on Saturday with only one MLB best bet. Stryker has zeroed in on a high-octane offense prepared to explode and this solid best bet comes with the support of two incredible money-making team trends. Grab Tom's 4th of July MLB Blowout for $20.
TAMPABAY RAYS

WUNDERDOG TOTAL

Game: Houston at San Francisco (4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 7 +100

Tim Lincecum is rapidly positioning himself as one of the top starters in baseball. He is off an impressive 18-4 season and enters this one at 8-2. When you consider the fact that he has allowed just nine earned runs in his last eight starts, it becomes clear he has some extra special stuff. He has also allowed Houston just six total runs in his last four starts against them. Russ Ortiz has been no slouch either as he has allowed just 19 earned runs in his eight starts on the season and in no game has he allowed more than three. Houston has now played to a 17-5 mark to the under in their last 22 games posted as a dog. The Giants have under madness as well as they are now 25-11-3 to the under vs teams with a losing record. Runs certainly look to be hard to come by here and I'll back the UNDER in this one.

Billy Coleman from Northcoast

4 1/2 white sox

3* atl under

3* houston