Horse
betting systems and handicapping angles.
For
as long as people have been betting on horse racing, they have been
looking for a system that would allow them to pick winning horses.
Enormous amounts of data has been collected and analyzed by people
and computers, hoping to find a magic system that would produce
winning picks on a regular basis. It has not been found.
There is no simple system that will allow you to beat the races on a
regular basis. However, you can make money consistently at the
racetrack through hard work and practice. The systems and
angles provided here are intended as a primer on handicapping horse
races. None of these systems or angles work all of the time,
but they might give you a good starting point for ways to look at a
race, and how to handicap using different methods that have been
known to identify horses that might have a winning chance. Good
luck and remember, there is no such thing as a sure thing!
Short
in last race off a layoff.
With
this angle you are looking for a horse that came off a layoff in his
last race. If he showed speed and faded at the end of the race,
or has a closing running style and came up short at the finish, he
might be a horse to bet in his next start. The idea being that
the horse needed a freshener and will improve in his next start.
Z
Pattern or Up and Down running line betting system.
When
looking at the horses past performances, you note that he started
well lost ground during the middle of the race and then came back at
the end, improving his position. An indication of "heart"
or perhaps he ran into trouble, in any case horses that exhibit this
running style in previous races often come back to run big.
Make sure that the horse did not improve at the end by only passing
tiring rivals.
Lone
speed dropping in class or shortening.
Any
time you can find a horse who possesses the lone speed in a race he
is worth a long look. When you find a horse with lone speed who
is dropping in class or shortening distance, watch out. Speed
wins and when a horse gets a loose uncontested lead in a race they
often wire the field.
Morning
line odds
drop
When
looking at the odds of the field as post time approaches, if you
notice that a horse is going off at odds considerably lower than his
morning line, pay attention. The theory is that those in the
"know" are expecting a big race out of the horse.
This is most often seen in maiden races loaded with first time
starters. When a horse is tearing it up on the training track,
word gets around and those horses are often bet heavily by folks on
the backside.
Early
speed post improvement angle.
This
betting system has found many longshot winners. When looking at
a race, find a horse that showed early speed in his last start and
held his position for at least the first two calls. If that
horse is improving his post position today (closer to the rail) then
he is worth a bet. If that horse is moving up in class, and his
current odds are lower than his post time odds
last time out, then give him extra consideration as a live
horse.
Surface
switch angle
Turf
to dirt, or dirt to turf. The theory behind betting a horse
making a surface switch has to do with the likelihood that the
trainer has determined that the horse will improve on the new
surface. Dirt racetracks are harder on the horse physically.
The horse will slide more on a dirt track than a turf track. If
he has any soreness in the legs, it will be aggravated by running on
dirt, a switch to turf will lessen and discomfort the horse may
have. A horse going from turf to dirt may have more confidence
and be sounder than a horse that has only been running dirt
races.
Jockey
improvement
When
a horse has a new jockey with a higher win percentage than the jockey
in his previous races it is often a sign of good things to come.
Jockeys with high win percentages often get their pick of horses in a
race, and factors unknown to the general public may often be behind
their decision to ride a horse that looks to be outclassed in a given
race. When you see a positive jockey switch pay attention to
the toteboard.
Speed
selection betting system
With
this betting system you eliminate horses and races based on the
following criteria.
1. Do not play any race with more than 2 first
time starters (most maiden races would be passed)
2. Eliminate any
horse whose last two races were not run at the same track as today's
race.
3. Eliminate any horse whose last race was more or less than
one furlong different than today's race.
4. Eliminate any horse
whose last two races were on a different surface than today's
race.
5. If the horse was not on the lead or within 3 lengths of
the leader at every call in his last race, eliminate the horse.
If you are left with more than one horse, bet the horse with the
best last race Beyer speed figure to win and box it with the other
qualifying horses in an exacta. If more than 3 horses qualify,
pass the race.
Points
based horse betting system.
With
this system you give points to each horse based on the following
rules, the horse with the most points will be your selection for the
race.
1. Look at the last four races for each horse. Add the two
best Beyer speed figures earned in those four races together.
The horse with the highest combined Beyer score gets 4 points, the
second best Beyer score gets 2 points.
2. Look at the last two
races for each horse. And combine the lengths each horse was
beaten together. If a horse won the race it counts as zero.
A horse that won its last two starts would earn a total of zero.
A horse that lost one race by 5 lengths, and another by 1/2 length
would earn a 5.5. The horse with the lowest number in this step
would earn 3 points and the second best horse will earn 2.
If two
or more horses won their last 2 races then do not add points to any
horse.
3. Any horse whose trainer has a win percentage of 10% or
better earns 2 points.
4. Any horse whose jockey has a win
percentage of 10% or better earns 1 point.
5. If the race is a
route race (longer than one mile) deduct one point for each horse in
posts 9-12.
6. If the race is a sprint (less than one mile) award
1 point for each horse that was within 3 lengths of the lead at each
call of his last race.
7. If the race is route race on dirt, add 1
point if the horse's last race was on the turf.
8. Add 1 point for
any horse using lasix for the first time.
9. The horse with the
most points is the horse to bet on with the following exception.
If the horse with highest amount of points is not at least 3 points
higher than the horse with the second most points, pass the race.
Dutch
Betting System
This
is not a handicapping method, but a betting system that is used to
cover several horses in a race. The idea behind the system is
that the more horses you bet, the better chance you have of winning.
Of course, the payoff on your winning horse has to cover the cost of
the bets on the losing horses. In this system, the player sets
an amount that he hopes to win on the race, lets say $100 for our
example. He then calculates how much he needs to bet on a
particular horse to generate a $100 return. If Horse "A"
is 4:1 in the betting pool, he would return $10 for a $2 bet.
In order to get back $100 on Horse "A" you would bet $20 to
win, resulting in a $100 payout ($80 profit + your original $20
bet). If horse "B" was 2:1, it would pay $6 to win,
so you would need to bet approximately $34 on that horse to get back
$100. If horse "C" is 9:1, it would return $20 for a
$2 bet, therefore you would need to bet $10 in order to get back
$100. So covering all three horses (Horse A at 4:1, Horse B at
2:1, and Horse C at 9:1) would cost you $64. If any one of them
won you would get back $100 and realize a $36 dollar profit. Of
course, if none of them won you would be out $100 and in bad shape.
This system is mainly used when a handicapper does not like the
betting favorites in a race and feels that one of the "longshots"
will win the race. Using a Dutch system he can cover several of
the longer priced horses and still make a profit regardless of the
outcome.
DUTCH
BETTING CHART
Use this chart to figure out how much money you
would need to bet on a horse in order to generate a $100 payback. Bet
as many horses as you would like as long as your total outlay is less
than $100.
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Dutch
Betting Chart and Calculator
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Parimutual
Odds
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Payout
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Bet
to win $100
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1:1
even money
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$4.00
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$50
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7:5
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$4.80
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$42
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9:5
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$5.60
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$36
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2:1
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$6.00
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$33
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5:2
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$7.00
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$29
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3:1
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$8.00
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$25
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7:2
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$9.00
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$23
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4:1
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$10.00
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$20
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9:2
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$11.00
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$18
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5:1
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$12.00
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$17
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6:1
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$14.00
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$14
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7:1
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$16.00
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$13
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8:1
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$18.00
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$11
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9:1
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$20.00
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$10
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10:1
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$22.00
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$9
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15:1
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$32.00
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$6
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20:1
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$42.00
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$5
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50:1
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$102.00
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$2
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