loonlvr:

 Thanxs

Loon!

Now I know why I didn't make a call on the UNDER in the ATL game......

Hudson looked like crap against Washington in his last start, allowing like 5 runs in 6.2 innings....Now that makes me nervous about any 4 run UNDER, no matter who the umpire is!

Also: A 12.00 ERA VS Florida this year is enough to make you puke, especially on the heels of that Wash disaster.

Then we have to see Nolasco's horrible ERA VS ATL this year! 11.32

Ricky is a better pitcher right now, so he will probably defy that ERA, but Hudson is primed to get smoked...

So NO on the Under! ok?

Added stuff, Loonlover:

Although Hudson wasn't effective in his first start after the All-Star break, it wasn't completely surprising considering the eight-day gap between starts.

"You get out of your routine and that can have more of an effect on some pitches," said Hudson, who scattered nine hits and five runs over 6 2/3 innings against the Nationals on Friday, which was still enough for him to become the first Braves pitcher to reach 10 wins this season. "I don't know if it affects all pitchers. I felt good the other night. I just missed with some locations."

Hudson has always seemed to feel and pitch well at Dolphin Stadium, where he is 4-1 with a 2.95 ERA in seven career starts.

"The mound here has as steep a slope as I've seen, and that allows you to get some good action on your pitches," he said. "I just have felt comfortable out there. It doesn't bother me at all."

All you park factor geeks...write that one down 

Ok: I went back to ALL of Hudson's Starts on the Florida MOUND....

He lasted 3 innings in his last start IN FLORIDA: He stunk

BUT

The previous 4 starts IN FLORIDA yielded a grand total of 6 combined runs....1,3,1,1

So, yeah, he may be telling the truth....he does have big time numbers in Florida....Must be the MOUND!

Shoot - King...great breakdown...wind anaylsis is always MONEY.

Love to see you break down EACH PARK - as I've tried to do it....

I inserted a Safeco Wind Thread on Monday Night - how the forecast is often misleading there - NWS Station is way down at Sea-Tac, buffered from Marine Gales off Elliot Bay - where-as Safeco takes the full brunt - even with roof closed (open air) - very unpredictable - often freshen dramatically, late afternoon / early evening - Meteorologists cannot accurately forecast them - more frequently in Lt July thru Sept., and most common after many consecutive days of above avg. Heat - inversion high pressure dome slowly breaks,  - prevailing coastal trade-winds bust thru - ect.

Safeco O/U...esp v. Top 20% - heavy lefty - Bigger Sticks - Power Alley &/or Pull - hitting to Right Line-ups...vs Sea pitchers OTHER than Felix, ect....The Visitor Team Totals - with kicked up wind (SAFECO GAME DAY Up-to-min, MLB.com reports - 15 min or less to First Pitch), I've cashed these TM TTL overs 77%....

BOS....possible, but afternoon wind is pretty light 

Saw that CHISOX wind also - figured it'd cause line to jump from 9.5 to 10

...and I was locked in on UNDER when it did - and I did

I HATE being on the other side as you!

It is inevitable now and then...

PODZ are jammin me up already, too....WHOH - SPOKE TOO SOON! 

BTW - I just returned from Vegas - took in many NBA Summer Lg Games...

I know you are more of a CBB Guy, but I'll be dropping in a Scouting Chart into the NBA Forum in a day or two...maybe just to add to Matty's expert bullet points

Attended 7 CBB Clinics in PDX, with abundant deep analysis of differing Coaches Systems, Philosophies and - more useful to us, TEMPO ...lots of notes to submit when we near November....many changes afoot - and we ought to able to thump the books early this year!

Kill' em today, Kevin! 

GEEZ, THANX!

Why Can't Seattle get 4 Runs today?????

Clay Buchholz is struggling with his mechanics, in fact, he's changing up his routine, by getting warmed up to a degree that allows him to feel like he's in the 3rd inning, not the first......

For a guy that can't seem to get past the 5th inning, I have to wonder if he's wearing himself down early.

They want to warm him up, then sit him down, then let him warm up some more......

HMMMMMMMM?

We talked about it a little bit as far as going out there and doing all the same warmups and then, when I get maybe three-quarters of the way through, sit down for a little bit in the bullpen and then when I get up, finish the rest of it, Buchholz said last night. Theyll try to manipulate me sitting down and getting back up for the first time and see how that works, and maybe we can break that first-inning barrier thats there right now.

 He has a "tweaked delivery"...he wasn't working both sides of the plate, and some of his pitches "bleed" back toward the middle.

"Assuming Buchholz survives the first inning today against the Mariners, there is the rest of the start to take care of and the righty is still trying to incorporate, without thinking about it, a tweaked delivery. The alteration does not so much involve changing his arm angle as having him stand more upright during his delivery, so the release point is lower than before.":

 Here are his last 4 starts!

The Umpire in the game is sort of Neutral, but has some UNDER numbers........he's not generous to the pitchers when a Righty is up, as he doesn't like to call the outside strike.......this may hinder the kid. KULPA AVERAGES 305 PITCHES PER GAME, And that's an OVER indicator for a pitcher with bad location......

So why cant we take a chance on 4 runs for a push?

Seattle can definitely get 4 runs tonight, and may just run off with the win.  King Felix has been outstanding against Boston in his career, and I think he can hold their lineup to 2 tonight.

Thanks STEVE!!!!!!

What about a Mariner OVER????

Papelbaum is not available, and Okajimmy went last night, and would be used sparingly, I suppose.....Lopez is a lefty specialist, not really good with the Right.....Hansen is available and ready....YAY!.....Timlin and Delcarmen are toying with 8.00 and 6.00 ERA's last 3 or otherwise.......Aardsma is a threat, sure....but that's it......

Let's just do it.......Maybe I'm a dope!

Seattle Mariners OVER 4 Runs -115 at BetUS

YEP!  I LIKE IT...

I ACTUALLY HAVE THE SAME THING - I ALSO LIKE THESE TM TTL O/U'S - AS YOU WERE SAYING, YOU CAN REFINE THE TENDANCIES AND MATCH-UPS IN A VERY SPECIFIC WAY -

1 UNIT - I HAVE THE SEA OVER ALSO!

GOTTA GET TO A MEETING....!  LOVE TO WRITE MORE

  THESE DAY GAMES ARE GONNA KILL ME!

ALSO 1/3 UNIT ON SEA R/L...

DON'T THINK YOU'RE A DOPE...I MIGHT BE FOR TAKING THE PATHETIC M'S ON RUNLINE! 

MAN, I'M LATE