Vegas-Runner - All Comments

re: BALANCE YOUR HANDICAPPING & WIN

woody1_7 — Sat, 13 Sep 2008 13:50:04 GMT

i bought todays package saturday the 13th twice how do i get them

Vegas-Runner's NFL & NCAAFB "RELEASE TIMES" | nflfanzone.net

Vegas-Runner's NFL & NCAAFB "RELEASE TIMES" | nflfanzone.net — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 19:42:38 GMT

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re: Vegas-Runner's NFL & NCAAFB "RELEASE TIMES"

honkster3 — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 18:40:00 GMT

I'm pumped VR.. Let's get to grindin' on these books!

re: Vegas-Runner's NFL & NCAAFB "RELEASE TIMES"

Matty O'Shea — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 18:33:38 GMT

I too am looking forward to a big year following your plays and talking football with you every week Ace. Let's kill the books!

re: Vegas-Runner's NFL & NCAAFB "RELEASE TIMES"

B5I8 — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 18:21:05 GMT

The schedule looks good. Thanks for taking the time to write the blog. I'm looking forward to kicking some ass with you this football season. Good luck.

re: NFLX WEEK 4 & NCAAFB WEEK 1 QUESTIONS

vegas-runner — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 16:13:27 GMT

Altham...I touched on the subject in out pod-cast but to give you a quick summary...I learned from the days when I watched the cappers who created "steam" to always make sure to take a wait & see approach to rule changes because of the rush to judgement...

Although as a Pro-Bettor, a lot of my Profit comes from beating the books to their adjustments...I always make sure it's backed up by data and not just speculation...

For myself, it's going to have to come down to seeing if the # of plays increase for those coaches who I have tagged as wanting to play quickly...and whether or not those whose tendency is to slow down the game are also able to use it effectively...

The bottom line is I will need to see that the average for each has been affected...As a whole, I believe the avg was 70-74 plays per game and of course I also have the average for each team, and more importantly each coach...

So I will not need too much of a sample pool to make my determination because I have those averages which more or less are consistant for most coaches...

I also will need to see how the oddsmakers perceive the change will have an influence on the outcomes and also how they feel the public has perceived it...

Because this is the time of year that our edge is so much bigger due to the fact football garners the biggest handle so they are as worried about the public money as they are about my own...

So we will handle this like we have every other rule-change and if there is an edge to be gained...I have confidence that myself, or one of the other sharp sources we use will uncover it...Best of Luck and Thanks again, VR

re: NFLX WEEK 4 & NCAAFB WEEK 1 QUESTIONS

altham — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 21:06:31 GMT

Great stuff Vegas. I would love to hear your thoughts on the new CFB rules changes and how it might affect totals.

re: NFLX WEEK 4 & NCAAFB WEEK 1 QUESTIONS

bubbaken — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 19:59:05 GMT

Thank you VR for taking the time to respond to my two questions. This is what I really appreciate about you - not only do we get game selections from you but you take the time to give us so much more in information from an experienced capper. We all appreciate you for that. Thank you.

re: NFLX WEEK 4 & NCAAFB WEEK 1 QUESTIONS

vegas-runner — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 17:57:29 GMT

Thanks Tommy, and I am now home and checked on those figures and they are accurate on the Cover Rate of Favs last year and although it isn't that high every year...it is definately the week where Favs are prone to get more of the money...

What I do advise though is that bettors be more careful this year because it should get closer to the mean which is what normally happens after a season which had irregular results...I mean, in every book that I have visited over the past week...I had them asking me if I think that the oddsmakers are going to be sharper in the NFL this year or should they brace for cover again...and historically...they should do a whole lot better this season than last and only 1 other time did Favs Cover 57% or higher in the NFL and the following year it definately changed and they went on to have one of their best holds on handle ever...So we should be able to expect the same in NCAAFB this time around in Week 1...although, I know many "sharps" taking a wait and see attitude...

Chuck, thank you my friend and I am really glad to hear that you have been able to get some helpful insight through my Blog Posts and I hope to be able to do a lot more than I have been as soon as the Football Seasons get going because the preparation will be done and I should have a 6 week gap before beginning to work on basetball...Best of luck in the season ahead and I hope you beat the shit out of your books brother, I really do...VR

re: NFLX WEEK 4 & NCAAFB WEEK 1 QUESTIONS

Chuck O'Luck — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 17:07:45 GMT

VR,

Very Informative Article. Great to get INSIDE the Mind of a "Real SHARP"! Good Luck on Profitable Football Season!

re: NFLX WEEK 4 & NCAAFB WEEK 1 QUESTIONS

Tommy Rider — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 17:02:14 GMT

Good stuff VR. I agree with the favorites covering in Week 1 of CFB as well.

re: BALANCE YOUR HANDICAPPING & WIN

vegas-runner — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 16:46:32 GMT

Thanks Rob and all of You Guys...and you are so right, I did forget that "Historian" who is filled with too many facts that have nothing to do with the outcome of an individual sporting event...lol...Best of Luck fellas in the Upcoming Football Season...VR

re: BALANCE YOUR HANDICAPPING & WIN

Rob Crowne — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 19:06:58 GMT

Great Article!

There's one more type of bettor you didn't mention -- "THE HISTORIAN." He has the ability to tirelessly search backwards for patterns in the clouds. He can tell you how many times a team has covered the spread in a 4:00 PM start on Sunday in November when playing in-Conference in a stadium West of the Missippi as a 4+ point favorite with the total set between 38 1/2 and 43. This bettor type is absolutely dedicated to trends from the past, and can never understand why history didn't repeat itself this time.

The good handicapper needs to understand the MEANINGFUL historical tendencies of teams and of the game itself, but that must be balanced with the ability to separate the true gods from mere random star constellations. He must also separate those factors that are relevant to a team's performance in today's game from those factors that are not, and ignore trends based on factors that are irrelevant to the outcome of the game. He must also understand those factors, such as rules changes, coaching changes, etc that can change the direction of the most valid trend or cause it to cease to exist just as a change in the wind changes the clouds.. .

re: BALANCE YOUR HANDICAPPING & WIN

Hellerud — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 19:58:23 GMT

well said an i will agree im a part of all 3.. haha and idk if htats a good thing or bad thing :-X

re: BALANCE YOUR HANDICAPPING & WIN

sportsfan — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 19:25:23 GMT

Hey, I only watch Sportcenter once. Geez, that sounded like me a couple years ago. Pregame has helped tremendously by providing articles like this one and many others. Thanks VR