Vegas-Runner

FREE Daily "Early Picks" + "MM" Topics !!

vegas-runner — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 21:51:00 GMT

FREE "Early" PICKS :

Allright Fellas...I think that after 3 weeks of creating the "Morning Moves" Newsletter...and putting the right game-plan together, while setting up some good parameters to decide on an Offical Best Bet (65% ATS)...it is now time to make sure that all of the "Early Info" goes to good use...

And after some consideration, I've come to the decision that I will pass along the "Early Bets" that I feel offer some Value...but didn't quite meet the parameters to become official 2* Bets for Subscribers...to all of the Pregame Forum Members...

What I have tried to do with the Newsletter besides pass along all of the knowledge and experience that I've gained in all my years in this racket...is to pass along the BEST BET from the "Early Info" that I gather...

And we've had success with this which is huge because many times, I wouldn't be able to use these positions later in the day for my Daily Premium Card...But now, because the Newsletter assures that my Subscribers get it early...I've been able to isolate that Best Bet that I make and pass that along to them...

But what I've noticed is that after doing this...there is always a position/s that came close to making the cut, but because I have really focused on being extremely selective this year...I pass on it as an Official Bet for Subscribers...

Now many times, as the day goes on...these leans become official bets for my Premium Card, while other times they don't...

So what I want to do, since so many of you guys capp your own games and are up early gathering information...is pass along those plays to the Forum as FREE PICKS...

I will try to do this on most days...although at times it won't be possible because I'm just too busy...But when I'm able to, just like I do with the Twitter Information...I will have these FREE PICKS available in the forum by 1-1:30pm est...

For Monday, the board was small and I really was able to isolate that Best Bet without having many other leans so early...Otherwise, I would have already passed them along this morning...But with a bigger board on Tuesday, I'm hoping to be able to get this going...

Let me know if you think this is a good idea and if you think that you can use this info, otherwise...I don't want to waste my time or yours because there is so much to get done each day before finalizing my card...But if you think you can use it, then I'm willing to pass it along and see how it goes...Thanks and Best of Luck, VR

"MORNING MOVES" TOPICS for NEWSLETTERS :

Allright Fellas...I said that I would get a Blog Post up...where my Subscribers can pass along some of the Topics that they may want to see discussed in the Daily Newsletters...Or some questions that you may want to see answered or have me research...

So here's your chance...Now ask away and don't be shy...Trust me, a day didn't go by that I wasn't in the office of the handicappers when I was moving "steam"...firing question after question...Many times, the same ones...to different guys so I can get various perspectives before creating my own conclusions...So Fire Away...VR

CBB "TRUE STEAM" for FRI 1-29-10...(41-21 Overall) !!

vegas-runner — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 18:35:00 GMT

Allright Fellas...There are definitely some Early Moves that my own Numbers/Ratings support to have plenty of Value, and definitely worth taking a position...And the toughest task so far has not been locating one, instead, it's been choosing which one to isolate and pass along in today's blog...

And which to hold back and continue trying to gather even more supporting information...so we can add them to tonight's Premium Client Card...Which will Include a 3* BOOKIE BET (81-44 for 65% on "125" Bets)...

So you can see that it's going to be an extremely fun few days...As we look to close out January as strong as possible, and add to our 2010 profit...

Now let's move on to Tonight's CBB Bet...and see if we can knock down another Winner...We are "12-6" in CBB so far this week...And for another consecutive week, RANKED #1 at The Sports Monitor for "MOST MONEY WON"...VR

CBB "TRUE STEAM" for FRIDAY 1-29-10 :

1.) HARVARD vs COLUMBIA Total Opened 132....Now 134 (BET OVER)

CRIS was the first off-shore book to offer a Total on this Ivy League Match-Up, and when they put it up at 132 a little after 5pm est on Thursday...I was a bit surprised...The reason for this is because although I made my "Fair Line" 134.5....I had made my "True Line" 137...And to be perfectly honest, even then I felt I could have went 1/2 Pt higher...

Now what surprised me was that we all know these Ivy League games get very little "volume" from the betting public...And the majority of action usually comes from the Wiseguys on these type of games...So usually, the oddsmakers will not weigh in "public perception" as heavily, and instead...put out a line that best refelects their actual ratings...

This is what surprised me, because I felt that anything less than 134...would be based more on the "perception" of these 2 teams, and not the actual strength...Because even though 2 of the L/3 in this series didn't crack 120 pts...this year's version of both squads is a bit different...More importantly, with Columbia's L/2 games having gone Under the Total...while 4 straight for Harvard have done the same...it seems to support the "perception" angle...

I believe that when you really look into it, this match-up has the potential to break 140...if the tempo is dictated by Harvard...which I expect it will...

And it appears that my initial read was agreed on by the Betting Syndicates, who bet the Over 132 at Cris...

And forced them to adjust this Total up to 133 in less than 2 minutes...And that is where the rest of the off-shore books, went ahead and opened the Total for this game...And where it closed last night...

Then early this morning, after having some more time to work on the match-up...it appears that the Wiseguys agreed that there was still some value there, and once again got down on Over 133...This prompted a move to 133.5, where once again...we saw the Outfits hit the Over one more time...And we've since seen the books go to 134, which is where the Vegas sports books that offer totals on these type of match-ups...went ahead and offered it...

According to my "True Line"...by betting Over 134, you are still getting the best of it...Which is pretty much all you can ever ask for when you place a wager and take a position...VR

LINE PREDICTION : At first, I felt that there was a good chance we would begin to see this Total drop some...Because it was obvious the Betting Syndicates got their desired amount down already...at Over 132, 133, & 133.5...So as they backed off, and the betting public began giving the books some action on the Under...I expected that they would go ahead and lower it, and attempt to give the bettors the worst of it...

And even shut down any attempts at a "middle" or "buy-back" that would be profitable...But since I've already seen Pinny go to 134.5...as well as a handful of locals who always over-adjust for "steam", who have gone as high as 135...I wouldn't be surprised if this line stays put...

With that said, don't let any line-move against us scare you...Because there are plenty of manuevers made by both, the sports books and the Wiseguys...And in this case, I can assure you that the "True Position" of those Betting Syndicates...is on the OVER...

Best of Luck, and Thanks again for your continued support...Vegas-Runner.

"TRUE STEAM" for TUES 1-26-10

vegas-runner — Tue, 26 Jan 2010 17:41:00 GMT

Although it's impossible for me to publish a "True Steam" Blog each and every day because of time restraints on some days...When I do have time, I always like to pass along some of those Early Moves that my own Numbers/Ratings support as good positions to take...

Many times, it has nothing to do with time restraints...and instead has to do with either my Numbers/Ratings not supporting any of those Early Moves...or even because of the lack of positions taken by the Betting Syndicates early...

Because I spent so many years moving these very "Steam Plays"...I have an excellent understanding of what it is that they are trying to accomplish with a lot of their Early Moves...And because I still have a wealth of sources that are taking these positions for those Betting Syndicates, more times than not, I'm able to confirm my opinions...

Today, is one of those times where we are really seeing a lack of "True Steam" by the Betting Syndicates...And to be perfectly honest, although so far they have gone ahead and taken a few early positions...I am very confident that these positions are not based on anything more than the fact that they are taking advantage of an "Out" that isn't using a line that is uniform across the board...so when they bet into it, other books see that and take the initiative to adjust slightly...as a way of preventing getting "steamed"...Or, these Early Moves are simply a smoke screen for a "True Steam" Bet that is coming later in the day...or even a way to set up a "middle" later in the day...

So I wanted to take the opportunity, since I scheduled myself an 1 1/2 hours to put a "True Steam" bet out today...and discuss what the "lack of steam" actually means...Because remember, I was and am right there in the trenches...So I am very much aware of the different manuevers made by those winning Outfits...And because I do put so much work into each and every "True Steam" Blog that I publish...and try to pass along both...winning selections, and more importantly, knowledge and experiences...I was not going to simply pass along a play, unless I myself was going to back it with cash...And since I haven't done so, I felt this was a great opportunity for us to discuss what is happening in the market...

Bottom Line...we've seen that when the Outfits are winning, the sportsbooks either over-adjust or even fear putting a line up too soon...But lately, these Betting Syndicates have not been doing so well...Which is the total opposite of how they did in the first 2 months of the NBA & CBB seasons...when they were just destroying the books, and forcing adjustments upwards of 3-5pts on so many sides and totals...

That just hasn't been the case here lately, so what we are seeing is that the sportsbooks are more willing to put their lines up sooner than before...and aren't adjusting as drastically for "steam"...Now obviously some of that has to do with the fact that the betting public has now gotten more involved in basektball...Which means that there is less of a liability on many of the games...But I can tell you from experience, that it don't matter how much public money may be coming in, or expected on a particular side or total...the Wiseguys will always get respect because historically, the books know that they will cash more tickets than they trash...

So why are these Betting Syndicates not making as many Early Moves as they previously were ?? Is it because they lack the confidence, or is it because the lines have gotten so much stronger ??

Well, fortunately because I speak with those guys who move these "steam plays" throughout the day...every day...I can tell you that it's neither...In fact, this is actually a strategy that they employ many times when they aren't doing as well as they think they should be...

And what they are doing has 2 parts...The first, is that they are not going to tip their hand early when they are losing...Because they want to make sure that they are able to get as much money down as possible...at the very best number...And what happens when they tip their hand early is that the off-shore books adjust so quickly that it becomes difficult to get it all down at a particular number...So they then go ahead and give up a 1/2 pt or even 1pt of value...to get that wager down...This is something that they do not want to do when they aren't winning...

More importantly, many "Locals" will not offer a line as early as off-shore books do...I mean, not even here in Vegas will they put a line up that hasn't already been bet into off-shore...And when they do, they put such low limits on them that it don't make it worth it to show your true intentions...So by waiting, they are able to line up more outs to get ALL their money down at the desired number...And also reap the benefits of having their cappers put more time into breaking down the match-ups...Because when you aren't winning, you don't want to even give up that vig that you would normally do to get off a bet...Reason being, not every "buy-back" is offering up a long-term profitable "middle"...

Second, they want to allow the oddsmakers and bookmakers to have a false sense of confidence in their numbers and the adjustments...Because adjustments are made by how much money is being bet, and also by who is betting it...and how they are currently doing...A perfect example is early in the CBB season when we see year in and year out...the Syndicates beat the books up so badly on Totals...that the books are willing to adjust as much as 7+ points...And offer a "middle" rather than continue getting "steamed" by other Outfits piggy-backing the "hot" ones...rr even the wanna-be sharps, who spend all day monitoring line moves...

It's human nature that when we are winning...we get more and more confident...So we can expect the oddsmakers and sportsbooks to do the same...And that's exactly what these Outfits want them to do...Because as they get more confident or even cocky, they end up actually providing a bigger edge for these Wiseguys...Which is exactly what everyone wants when then aren't winning...

So how do we take advantage of this ??

It's simple...by paying much more attention, and giving more respect...to "Late Steam"...rather than "Early Steam" during these stretches...And although they don't last, and eventually things flip-flop back and forth throughout a season...by knowing what is going on, and being sure that this is truely what is happening in the market-place...we as handicappers can know when to give more respect to "early steam" and when to do so for "late steam"...

A perfect example is the "Late/Late Steam" Bet that I gave out last night for FREE on Twitter...Which was OVER 141 STJ/PENN...

This Total Opened at 144...and I can promise you that although we saw it drop all the was down to 140.5 at some spots around 6pm est...that the 3.5 pt line-move wasn't based on even $1.00 worth of "Wiseguy Money"...Instead, after speaking with books...it was based 100% on the fact that after the ESPN Match-Up (Mis vs Kan)...that this was the 2nd biggest bet total of the day in CBB by the "public"...

And what the Wiseguys did is exactly what we touched on above...They allowed the books to get a false sense of confidence that they can go ahead and move their lines however they please, to make sure the public is getting the worst of it...Especially since it don't seem like the Outfits have any interest in taking a position...I mean, they didn't do anything as the books adjusted in 1/2pt incriments throughout the day...so why not go ahead an take advantage of this, thought the bookmakers...

But what did we see...about 15-20min before tip-off...after EVERY sportsbook had adjusted the Total down as much as they could...EVERY Betting Syndicate on the planet sent out a "Buy-Order" on the OVER 140.5...Because as soon as one made the move, the rest went ahead and unloaded as well...And from what I was told, that OVER ended up being by far...the biggest position of the day for the Wiseguys...

So you can rest assured that these Betting Syndicates win because they know that it's a war...And like any war, you have to be able to adjust to current conditions...or run the risk of being destoyed...This is why these guys win long-term all the time...Because they have no egos, and instead are willing to concede at times that maybe their numbers just aren't as sharp as the oddsmakers are at the present...So instead of continuing to fight the same way, they change their strategy and use different methods to win these small battles...as their cappers are hard at work sharpening up their weapons (ratings/numbers)...

And when they then see that these weapons are as stong as they should be...or more importantly, stronger than the oddsmakers/bookmakers...Then they go ahead and flip the script, and come at them a different way again...this time, beating them with Early Moves...

Remember, this is a war...and it's a constant battle against the oddsmakers/bookmakers...And the key is to never allow it to become a war against yourself...By doing self destructive things, or allowing your ego to force you into not adapting with the current market conditions...When I was a runner, that was one of the things that shocked and impressed me the most...that these Betting Syndicates had absolutely no problem changing gears, using smoke screens, and finally, being willing to adjust to the market immediately...and knowing when they had to do so...

Finally, forgive me for once again going on and one about these topics...But you know how much I love this racket, and I have so many experiences and have so much knowledge that I picked up along the way that I love sharing with those who I know have just as much passion as I do...So forgive me for not having an Official "True Steam" Bet for tonight's action just yet...But I'm sure that we will see more Early Moves here very soon that I agree with...And my clients can be sure that we will have plenty of "Late Steam" on our Cards when this is happening...

Keep your eye on the market as tip-off approaches...and you may see some of the strongest "True Steam" Bets of the day...Thanks again for your continued support and best of luck...Vegas-Runner.

CBB "TRUE STEAM" for 1-21-10...67% ATS in CBB !!

vegas-runner — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 18:22:00 GMT

Allright Gentlemen...Time to resume our "True Steam" for this week...Because of MLK Day on Monday, an extremely limited board on Tuesday, and then having to tape this week's video pod-casts...and work on an extremely huge board last night...this bet ends up being our first official "True Steam" position for this week...

We are currently cashing 67% of CBB "True Steam" Bets...Which has helped me stay RANKED #1 in CBB at The Sports Monitor for BOTH..."Winning % and Most Money Won" for a number of weeks...Which isn't the easiest thing to do when you wager as much Volume as we do...

And as you've seen with football and so far in basketball...the majority of these "True Steam" Bets, do make my Premium Card...Because these are always "steam plays" that are supported by my own Ratings/Numbers...And the only time that I don't Upgrade them to at least a 2u bet, is when I'm unable to receive more support as I try to confirm and finalize each day's card...

Finally, we are "40-21" (66% ATS) Overall on "True Steam" Bets for 2009 & 2010...And I really think that I've isolated another CBB position for tonight, that should add to those results...and also get Upgraded to a Premium Play...So let's get right to tonight's wager...

CBB "TRUE STEAM" for THURSDAY 1-21-10 :

1.) NC GREENSBORO opened -1....Now -2 (Bet UNC-Greensboro)

The opening number for this match-up went up yesterday evening, and did not receive any sharp money immediatley after opening...Nor did it receive any as Wednesday came to a close...So this morning, we were seeing UNCG -1 all across the board...But that didn't last long because we saw some Wiseguys step up and grab +1 on Tenn-Chatanooga...That surprised me at first because I had made my "Fair Line" UNCG -2...and my "True Line" -4...

But then I remembered one of the concepts that we've covered plenty of times in these Blogs...And that is, we know the Betting Syndicates always look for opportunities to get +POINTS with BOTH teams in the same game...Which means they end up with a "Dog Bet" on BOTH teams...And that is obviously a bet with plenty of value...So I sat back to see if I was correct, and if so...that meant the Outfits would try to drive the line up to -1 or higher on Tenn-Chat, so they can come right back and unload on UNCG at a Dog price...Especially if they don't want to take an official position, and instead are trying to earn via a "middle"...

Well, that almost happened...But as soon as this game went to PICK, it appears that at least a few of the Betting Syndicates saw that there was just too much value on the Home-Team...And rather than run the risk of being left out of the party, they imediately went to work laying all the UNCG at PK, that they could get their hands on...

They didn't stop there...and as the sportsbooks hurried to adjust, after seeing the "True" intentions of the Wiseguys for this match-up...the Outfits continued to lay UNCG -1 & -1.5...Which forced the adjustment all the way up to -2...

Now if you didn't see all of this take place...You may figure that this isn't really a significant move...Because it's only a 1 PT adjustment from the opening number...But nothing could be further from the truth...Because it appears that they like this position on UNCG so much, that they abandoned trying to get Both teams at a Dog Price so they don't miss out on getting down on UNCG at what I believe was an extremely weak number...

LINE PREDICTION : Bottom Line, after doing some work on this match-up...I am now convinced that this line was based on nothing more than "Public Perception"...Because the betting public is going to see that an 11-7 team is actually a dog, to a 3-15 club...that they've beaten 3 straight times...And because of this, I would not be surprised at all to see some public money come in on Tenn-Chat and help the books get some balance on this match-up...But because this is an "Added Board" game, and there are plenty of other match-ups to choose from...As well as a handful of Televised Games, I don't think that the public money on this match-up will be enough to bring this line back down to -1 or PICK...So unless there is another "Buy-Order" sent out, I believe that we should see this line stay where it is...with possibly a 1/2 pt adjustment either way...VR

Bottom Line...these Overall Records are extremely misleading...Because although UNCG is only 3-15, they only have "1" less Conference Win than their opponent, Tenn-Chat...

And more importantly, when we take a look at the "Strength of Schedule" (SOS) for BOTH teams...we find that UNCG has played the #17th TOUGHEST SCHEDULE in CBB...and #9th TOUGHEST "NON-CONFERECE" SCHEDULE in CBB

On the flip side...Tenn-Chat may be 11-7...But they've played the #304th TOUGHEST SCHEDULE in CBB...and #219th TOUGHEST NON-CONFERENCE SCHEDULE in CBB...

So those misleading Overall Records give us plenty of Value on this wager...And since my "True-Line" is -4, I believe that there is still enough value for us to step up and take a position on UNCG -1.5 or -2 as well...Thanks again for your continued support, and best of luck...Vegas-Runner...

NFL FUTURES.."130 UNITS" PENDING..TIME to CASH IN !!

vegas-runner — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 18:33:00 GMT

Allright Gentlemen...Back in August we placed our AFC 5* FUTURE GOY on SD CHARGERS +1000...And we placed our NFC 4* FUTURE GOY on NO SAINTS +2000...

Well, we are now in the EXACT position that I had hoped for...Which is to get into the Playoffs, hopefully get a bye in the 1st Round, and play at least 1 home game so that we are Favored...And so far, all 3 wishes have come to fruition...

If you remember, last year we Won our NFL FUTURE on STEELERS +1300...And to be perfectly honest, with only 8 teams left in the Playoffs...I really like our chances of repeating that feat in this year's Super Bowl...

But with that said...we head into the Divisional Playoff Weekend...with "130 UNITS" sitting on the table, just waiting to enter into our Bank-Rolls...

Now if you remember, I have written in countless blogs that just like I keep an entirely seperate bank-roll for my daily "Middles", "Scalps", ect...I also keep a very seperate bank-roll for my "Futures"...And the reason I do so, is because they are both totally different businesses than my daily wagering...And if you treat sports betting like a business, I promise you that it will eventually pay out like one...

And by seperating these businesses, I am able to take all of the guess work out of the equation...And make sure that I don't allow any bias get in the way of doing the right things...This also allows me to work on my daily grind, without even considering what's going on with my futures, or middles...So that my opinions are always based on facts, and not hopes...

The bottom line for this weekend is this...Not only do we have "130 Units" still alive...but we have BOTH of our teams favored by an entire TD...And because it will only cost us 10cent more to take those lines up to +7.5 (-120)...there is incredible value in attempting a "middle" and eliminating any risk of not making a profit...

Because those of you who followed me on the FUTURE GOY BETS...are now able to GUARANTEE PROFIT...which in this business, is a very difficult thing to do...

So if you are currently in a stage where you are trying to build your bankroll up to where you can then simply straight bet everything, without trying to add more to your bank-roll, to increase your unit size...then the plan of attack is simple...Go ahead and HEDGE BOTH BETS and take the DOGS +7.5...

And I would do this for at least 10 UNITS...Because this way, at the very least...you will double your investment...Which isn't a bad return in 5 months time...More importantly, you just may cash those Bets...and still have your FUTURE BETS alive going into the Conference Championships...And then be faced with another welcomed decision...

Now because I always am straight with my guys...and tell them exactly what I am doing, I'm going to let you in on my plan of attack...

And that is...I'm Not Going to Do Anything...

That's correct, just like my +5000 World Series Future back in 2005 on the CWS...where I didn't hedge a single penny...I'm not going to hedge a single penny this weekend...

Not because I am sure that Both, SD & NO are going to cover the spread...But because I just feel that I am getting so much the best of it, that I don't want to give them a chance to get any of it back...

Now what you need to understand is this...I am currently not trying to build the bank-roll that I use for myself, or for the fund that I manage...Because we are at a very comfortable unit size for both of those bank-rolls, and I am not trying to increase our unit size at this time...So we are not trying to build our business, we are trying to profit from it...And those are 2 very different things that every sports bettor needs to understand...

So for this weekend, I will keep those FUTURE BETS in the drawer...and not even consider them for my wagering this weekend...Because I will not allow them to make me bias at all, and through the years...I have really gotten good at being able to do this...

I could have very easily just said that I am hedging 10 Units, and do what I can to add to our 2010 Balance...But then I would be telling you something that isn't true, and that I myself am not doing...And I could never do that, so instead, I decided that I would go ahead and be honest...while advising those of you who are currently trying to build your bank-rolls, on what I would do if I were in your position...And in that case, the plan of attack would be simple...LOCK in PROFIT...

But for myself...I'm going to let it ride at least another round...And if both of those Favs go down on the ML, and I lose -9 units...I wouldn't be angry at myself at all, because it's a decision I made based on the fact that I believe I am getting the best of it...And am in an ideal spot to have at least 1 of my Futures get to the next round...If of course both road teams don't advance...

Thanks again for all your support...and thanks to those who went ahead and got on board and made those Futures with me...Truth is, 5*s is the biggest bets that I make...And I don't make them without really feeling strongly that I have a great opportunity to cash...So you can be sure that even if it's on a Future Bet...I am taking an extremely big position...

I will be back with a follow-up after this weekend's games...and see where we stand...And don't forget, we still have a nice sized FUTURE ticket on TEXAS & TENN in CBB...Who both look pretty good so far and should at the very least, get to the big dance...and maybe do some damage when they get there...Best of Luck, Vegas-Runner...

NBA on TNT "TRUE STEAM" for THUR 1-14-10 !!

vegas-runner — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 18:23:00 GMT

Allright gentlemen...we are now "39-21" (65% ATS) on "TRUE STEAM" for 2009-2010...And after a "4-0" SWEEP last night, I really feel that our ratings/numbers are as sharp as ever...And I feel so good at how well we are running in all sports currently, that I'm going to pass along a bet on tonight's marquee match-up...So tonight, we are going to try and get WIN #40 by taking advantage of another "Prime-Time" Televised Game...

Truth is, I have always felt that these "Prime-Time" games offer up some of the biggest edges as far as "Line-Value" is concerned...Because there are no other games, where the oddsmakers have to account more heavily for "Public Perception"...than these televised marquee match-ups...Reason being, they will almost always receive the most betting action...And it's on these games, that the "Public Money", far out-weighs the "Wiseguy Money"...So the line is influenced more than ever by "perception", rather than "true strength"...

And in Tonight's late TNT Match-Up, I feel that we have an opportunity to get our money down...while we are getting the best of it...because of what I just touched on...So let's get to that bet right away, and see if we can cash in on this line error...VR

NBA on TNT "TRUE STEAM" for THURSDAY 1-14-10 :

1.) CLE/UTAH Total Opened 196.5....Now Total is 195...(BET UNDER)

Here is another one of those situations where the Betting Syndicates just weren't willing to show their hand when the total for this match-up was first offered yesterday afternoon at CRIS...And as we've touched on before, it don't make sense for the Outfits to take a position on a game, when there are very few "outs" willing to book it...and the limits are lower...So rather than take advantage of the line mistake immediately, they prefer to sit back and wait for more books to offer a line...

The reason this "steam" play really jumped out at me, other than the fact my "True Line" for this total is much lower than what is being offered...is because since this is a TNT "Prime-Time" Game...and more importantly, the late game (which almost always will have the most money pending)...and we are sure that the betting public will side with the OVER...the Wiseguys could have easily sat back, and allowed that pressure from the public, to force the books to adjust this total even higher...

But as I've said countless times...it's not as if these Betting Syndicates work together, nor is there just one group with an opinion that forces the books to move their numbers...So even though there may be a handful of Wiseguys who are looking to take a position on the same game, it becomes a race to see who can get the most money down, at the very best number...And although there are many times when these Outfits would love to sit back and allow the public money to force an adjustment which would give them an even bigger edge...it becomes impossible to do when someone steps up and begins to "steam" a side or total...

And rather than miss out on the party, they then are forced to step up themselves...and take their position now, knowing the number won't be the same for very long...And as the books begin to adjust, more and more of the value is gone...

That's what happened here, because very early this morning...the UNDER 196.5 got "steamed"...And although the books adjusted their total some, it wasn't enough to keep the others away...So before you knew it, the Wiseguys had positioned themselves at UNDER 196.5, 196, & 195.5...Which forced the adjustment down to 195...where this total is now at, almost all across the board...

I believe that we were looking at such an inflated total because of the fact these 2 teams played earlier in the season, and we saw them go Over the total by "20 Points"...And when you look at the series recently, you will see that 3 straight games between these two teams have gone Over the total...But with that said, only 1 of those totals was set higher than 191...

Then when you look at the current form of both these teams...you will see that BOTH have gone Over in 3 of their L/4 games coming in...And each scored 117 & 118 respectively in their last game, which was played on Monday night...

So the "perception" coming in is offense...But I believe we are in for the total opposite, and instead this will become a defensive battle where both teams prefer to play a half-court game...than run the floor...We know that Shaq is now probable, which means the Cavs will be more prone to post-up...and I have no doubt that we will see more of that from the Jazz as well...

Finally, both of these defenses come in allowing only 94pts (Cle) and 97pts (Utah) per game...

With Clevelands Defense being Ranked #1 in FG% Allowed...and #3 in PTS Allowed, while Utah is #9...

Bottom line...we have a spot where the Total is definitely inflated based on nothing more than "perception"...And it's these type of spots, that if you can get your money down on enough...will eventually lead to long-term profits...Which after all, must always be the main goal and focus if you truely plan on beating the books in the long run...VR

LINE PREDICTION : I would not be surprised at all to see this Under get "steamed" some more...But with that said, although we will then see it dip even a little lower than 195...I believe that it will then begin to once again climb back up as the betting public begins to get involved and place their wagers on tonight's games...And since this is the late TNT match-up, we may see if climb some more right before tip-off...So even though I feel that at 195, we are really getting the best of it...I don't think that we risk losing any value by waiting until much closer to tip-off, to take our position...

Thanks again for all your support...We are now RANKED #1 in CBB for WINNING % and MOST MONEY WON...(at The Sports Monitor)...After finishing up the NFL Regular Season, RANKED #2...This is a great time to be betting sports, because so much is going on simultaneously...that it becomes very difficult for there not to be plenty of mistakes to take advantage of...Best of Luck, Vegas-Runner.

CBB "TRUE STEAM" for Tue 1-12-10..."4-1" in 2010 !!

vegas-runner — Tue, 12 Jan 2010 17:28:00 GMT

Allright fellas...we nailed another CBB "True Steam" Bet last night, a SU DOG WINNER...To take us to "4-1" on CBB "Early Moves"...

We are now "39-20" (66% ATS) OVERALL on "True Steam" Bets...since we launched this Blog...

Tonight, I've been able to isolate another "Added Board" wager...that according to my own Ratings/Numbers, still has plenty of value...Even after the books have adjusted for all of the "steam" they had to take on this game...

Remember, the books are adjusting for all the public bettors that are now making their way over to basketball, from football...So that means if we can strengthen our own numbers during this transition...we should be able to uncover some spots, that offer up even more value than ever before...

That's what the Betting Syndicates bank on to beat the books in all sports, each and every season...And there is very little that the books can do to prevent this, or to protect themselves...

More importantly, for tonight's "True Steam"...I believe it's one of those instances where the sportsbooks can only adjust so far...Because it's an "Added Board" game...And more importantly, it's a TOTAL...Which means that it will get very little volume from the betting public...

And because of that, there is only so much of an adjustment that the books can make for "steam" coming in...Because they are aware that if they do go ahead and adjust this Total to where they would like...or even, to where I feel it should be...then it will really open the door for them to get killed on this game...Because the "middle" opportunity would then become too profitable for the Outfits to pass up...

And what we saw early on this season...and pretty much, every season...is that the Wiseguys do so much damage with Totals, because the oddsmakers numbers are so WEAK, compared to those that the Outfits are using...So when the Betting Syndicates came in on those Totals, early in the season...the books were forced to continue adjusting...Especially, since there was very little public money to help them get any kind of balance...Those adjustments opened up huge "middle" opportunities, and I can tell you for certainty, that the Wiseguys really cashed in on them...

This is why I love these kind of "True Steam" Bets...Because I can almost be 100% sure, that the books would like to adjust the Total even more...But for the reasons that I just touched on...THEY CAN'T...And therefore, we find ourselves with what I like to call, a "true" value bet...VR

CBB "TRUE STEAM" for TUE 1-12-10 :

1.) TENN ST/IOWA Total Opened 132....Now 134 (BET OVER)

I was extemely surprised that CRIS opened this Total up at 132 last night...Because I had made my own line for this game 136.5, and that was my "Fair Line"...While my "True Line" was actually 138...But when I looked at the "match-up stats" that every bettor checks daily, and are available everywhere...it became obvious why they went ahead and brought it out so low...And the reason for this is the amount of points that Iowa has scored in 3 of the L/4 games...and Tenn St has in 2 of their L/3...As well as the "perceived tempo" for BOTH...So that made me assume that this Total was based more on "Public Perception"...than anything else...

I was also surprised that the Wiseguys left the Total alone for this game at first...so that it was still 132 at the end of the night...But as I've covered in so many past blogs, we know that there are very few books that offer Totals on CBB the night before the games...Especially on "Added Board" match-ups...And more importantly, those books that are willing to offer a betting line the night before...are extremely limiting the amount of money they are willing to book...

So it makes perfect sense, for these Outfits to wait until more "outs" are available...And the limits are higher, before they go ahead and tip their hand on what position they are going to take...

That's exactly what happened here, because we saw that this morning...over an "8 MINUTE" period, enough "steam" came in on the OVER 132, 132.5, & 133...to force the adjustment up to 134...Where this total is now almost all across the board...VR

LINE PREDICTION : Truth is, according to my own Ratings/Numbers...this Total still isn't high enough...And I wouldn't be surprised if we see another "Buy-Order" go out on the OVER...If this Over does catch some more "steam", it will then put the books in a tough spot...because adjusting again will definitely open up a huge "middle" opportunity...In which case, we will almost certainly see this Total come back down some...as we approach tip-off...But what choice will they have...

Where it sits right now, at 134...I believe we won't see anyone try and attempt a "middle", which is why I advise those who agree with me...and the Betting Syndicates, to go OVER now...Because I do believe we are still getting plenty of value, and I doubt that it will come back down, closer to the opening number...

But those who disagree, and like the UNDER...I believe that by waiting, you may find yourselves with an even higher Total to go Under...But I would go ahead and make that bet as soon as I see it move upwards some more...Because the Outfits will also be waiting for that to happen, and if they do attempt that "middle"...then it should come back down a bit...

Bottom line...I know that these 2 clubs don't employ the quickest tempo...But I don't think that either has the type of size advantage to make this a "post-up" type of game...And I also think that BOTH of these teams are weak enough defensively, that the other will be able to score some points...I look for this game to possibly eclipse 140...Vegas-Runner.

CBB "TRUE STEAM" for Mon.."3-1" in 2010 !!

vegas-runner — Mon, 11 Jan 2010 18:22:00 GMT

Allright fellas...We start the new week off by trying to cash in on a CBB "Early Move" made by the Betting Syndicates...and supported by my own Ratings/Numbers...We are "3-1" on those CBB "True Steam" BETS...And tonight, we'll try to add to that with a nice Home Dog on the added board...

More times than not...you can be sure that the majority of "moves" on the added board, are Wiseguy related...And more importantly for those of us that follow many of these Betting Syndicate Plays...Since the sportsbooks know that the betting public will rarely help them acheive any type of balance on these added board games...they go ahead and over-adjust...

And the best way to take advantage of that...is to allow them to make that adjustment, then employ some patience...Because what happens is that the books create such a "middle" opportunity for these Outfits...that as tip-off approaches...most times, they will go ahead and send out a "Buy-Order" on the "Other" side...to try and catch that "middle"...

This manuever then allows us to get almost as good of a line as the Outfits did...because once again, the sportsbooks will have to adjust for that "steam"...And if it happens to be an added game that the betting public is also getting involved in...many times, we will find ourselves with an even better number than those Betting Syndicates got...

Finally, because bettors see a line that has gone up and then down...or down, and then up...many times they will have no idea what side, if any...the Wiseguys are one...But because we have some very solid sources, who are behind many of these line moves that we see, each and everyday...we can be sure, on whether or not...it's actually a "True Position"...And in tonight's case, this is definitely "True Stream"...VR

CBB "TRUE STEAM" for MONDAY 1-11-10 :

1.) ST PETER'S opened +6....Now +4.5

The betting line for this match-up actually went up last night, because as more and more public bettors move over to basketball, from football...the sportsbooks aren't as afraid to put out a line...Because they know that they won't just be going up against the Wiseguys anymore...And when this line went up at 6, we immediately saw a few Outfits grab it...which forced the adjustment down to 5.5...Where it closed at on Sunday night, and where most books that had yet to offer a number, also opened it...

Then this morning, the race was on...Because after having some more time to break this match-up down, the Wiseguys realized that there was still plenty of value on the home dog...And because they also knew that this game wouldn't receive the kind of public action needed to force an adjustment, and possibly get an even better line by tip-off...as soon as one Outfit grabbed +5.5...the rest joined the party and began buying up all the +5.5 & +5's that were out there...

And this forced the books to drop the line to where we see it now...ST PETER'S +4.5.

LINE PREDICTION : Because I know from years of moving "steam"...that the lines the Outfits like to work middles around most in basketball...are those around the numbers 4,5,6, & 7...I believe that we just may see some try and decrease their position, in order to try and catch a nice "middle" to start the week...The reason for this is that those are the "key numbers" in basketball...Simply because of the reason, more games end by those margins, than any other...So I would not be surprised at all, to see this one creep back to 5 and even 5.5...at the "squarer outs"...Because those shops which don't accept much Wiseguy money, will almost certainly be booking Niagara from the betting public...With that said, if you see this one drop even 1/2 point more...then you can be 100% sure that the Betting Syndicates absolutely love this position...And more importantly, have uncovered some more supporting data...since they now have had more time to work on the match-up...As opposed to when they step up and take a position on an "opening number"...Those "early moves" are almost always based on the fact that the Outfit's Lines...differ from what the books hung up...And many times, those are the moves that they get off of completely...VR

Thanks again for all your support fellas...And remember, the oddsmakers/bookmakers are currently being forced to make some adjustments for all the bettors making their way over to basketball...Because of that, there will be plenty of good opportunities to profit...As long as you are able to identify when those adjustments are warrented, and when they are simply based on "Public Perception"...Best of Luck, Vegas-Runner.

NBA "TRUE STEAM" for Fri (37-20 for 65%) !!

vegas-runner — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 18:14:00 GMT

Allright fellas, we had a loser in the NBA last night...and are now "37-20" (65% ATS) since launching this Blog...And as proud as I am about those results, I'm even prouder to see that so many up and coming handicappers are really learning a lot...And that they otherwise may have never had the opportunity to truely see how the Betting Syndicates approach sports betting...and the different ways that they use to beat this market...year in and year out...

The Bottom Line is that I do put a lot of time and work into each blog that I publish...And I also make sure to try and pass along the kind of "Steam" that will produce a long-term profit...Just like it does for the Wiseguys...

But with that said...I am also simply educating bettors...and giving them accurate information about what is happening, and what is behind a lot of those "early moves"...In the end, as handicappers...the decision on how you are going to use this information is ultimately yours...

I have built a small army of sources which include Bookmakers, Pro Sports Bettors, Runners, ect...And what I do each day is gather as much information from each as I possibly can...But then, it's all up to me to try and make sense of it...and decide how to use it...

That's exactly what I wish that bettors do with this Blog, and all of the "Bets & Info" that I try and pass along here at Pregame...Since day 1, my main priority and true goal as a "paid handicapper"...is to become a strong source of information for bettors...And more importantly, to try and educate bettors...the same way that I was educated by so many extremely sharp professionals...

With that, let's see if we can cash this NBA "move" tonight...and head into the weekend off an NBA winner...VR

NBA "TRUE STEAM" for 1-8-10 =

1.) MIAMI HEAT opened +7....Now +6

These are the type of moves that always used to baffle me when I was a "runner"...Because since I was a bookmaker prior, I had developed a pretty good sense of knowing where the "public money" was going to go each day...And when we would get that "Buy-Order" at 7am on a team that I just knew the public would be betting heavy that night...it would piss me off, because I thought that by waiting...we would have gotten a better line...But as I said previously, when I moved here to Vegas to apply my craft...I was shocked by the amount of Betting Syndicates that were in Vegas doing the exact same things that we were...Some at a higher level, and others at a lower one...And that's when it all began making sense...And I realized that just like the stock market, and any other market...it's going to be a daily race to get the "Best Price" on each position that we were going to take...

Tonight's game is one of those examples of the Betting Syndicates competing against each other for the best price...And as soon as the line went up on Thursday afternoon, the race to get +7 on MIAMI was on...I wasn't surprised because I had made my "True Line" a bit lower, and I also wasn't surprised when they stopped betting it after the books adjusted down to 6.5 because by that time...almost EVERY sportsbook had a line on this match-up, so I was pretty sure that the Wiseguys were able to get down what they had hoped for...at +7...

But then this morning...I did get surprised, because the Betting Syndicates came back...and they came back strong...Betting MIAMI +6.5 and even +6...Forcing the books to eventually drop this line all the way to 5.5...

That tells us that not only did the Outfits see "Line Value" in this wager...but they also saw "Handicapping Value", because after having time to work on the match-up...they were willing to come back and take a lower number...VR

LINE PREDICTION : This just shows you how much respect the sportsbooks have for these Betting Syndicates...Because even though they expect the public to come in one-sided on PHO...they still went ahead and adjusted for that "Steam"...They do this because they know these Wiseguys are going to win more bets than they lose...And rather than try to guess when they are going to be wrong, they've decided long ago to respect each wager...I've worked with those Betting Syndicates long enough to know that the books are correct, but not only do these guys win more than they lose...but they bet like robots and when they get ahead, you will never see that money again...For tonight's game, I would truely be shocked if the Wiseguys sent out another "Buy-Order"...because as I mentioned above, they took a very significant position already...Therefore, I expect the books to eventually adjust this number back up to at least 6...With the shops the cater to the public more than the Outfits possibly going back to as high as 6.5...

So if you plan on followin the "Steam"...then I feel you shouldn't lose any value by waiting, and in fact...you will probably get some more as we approach tip-off...

For those who disagree, and plan on backin the Suns...I would go ahead and lay -6 now, because I highly doubt that you will get better...

Thanks again for all your support, and best of luck...Remember, over the next 2-3 weeks...the oddsmakers/bookmakers will be looking to adjust their Ratings, to accomidate all of the public bettors who will now make their way over to basketball...And while these adjustments take place, it's good to be cautious...and try to determine if this is on of those seasons, where the Wiseguys are ahead of the books...Best of Luck, Vegas-Runner.

NBA "TRUE STEAM" for Thur 1-7-09

vegas-runner — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 18:15:00 GMT

Allright gentlemen...we only have 1 NBA game on tonight, due to the BCS Championship...And since my Ratings/Numbers support the "Early Move" that was made by the Betting Syndicates this morning...I decided that we would use the play, as tonight's isolated bet...

Like I said on this week's Video Pod-Casts...These next 2 weeks are extremely dangerous if you don't know how to approach them...Because with more and more football bettors making their way over to basketball...the oddsmakers will be forced to make some adjustments...

In the past, I've seen the Wiseguys get ahead of this adjustment and do some real damage...While other times, I've seen the books get the best of them...

So keep that in mind as we move on these "STEAM PLAYS"...And together we'll be able to see in no time, who is ahead of who in this battle...VR

NBA "TRUE STEAM" for THURSDAY 1-7-09 :

1.) OVER 197 CHA/NYK....Total Now 199

This is actually a total that I had circled because I felt that based on the last 2 meetings between these 2 teams, the oddsmakers would be forced to over-adjust, due to "public perception"...rather than "true strength"...Because if you look at the current form for BOTH of these teams, you will notice that their Offenses are clicking (Both Teams FG% has INCREASED Over L/5 Games)...And when the books hung the Total up, only 1Pt higher than they did for the last meeting...I expected to see the Wiseguys take a strong position, if my Ratings/Numbers were accurate...

Fortunately, I wasn't disappointed...Just the opposite...And although the Outfits left the Total alone when the number went up last night...today is a different story...What you need to always remember is that the Opening Lines Off-Shore have "Low Limits"...Especially when you are flagged as a "Wiseguy"...So it becomes advantageous for the Betting Syndicates to wait until more books offer a line on the game they are looking to bet...Especially when it's a Total, which the limits for are almost always lower to begin with...

That's what happened here...as the Wiseguys showed up bright and early to blast the OVER in this match-up...They hit it at 197, 197.5, 198, & 198.5...And that's when the sportsbooks decided that they have had enough...and went ahead and adjusted this line up to 200...Well after the Outfits had taken a huge position on the Total...VR

LINE PREDICTION : Because we've seen so many NBA games fall very close to the total offered, the Betting Syndicates always see "value" in working a "middle" on Totals...In fact, this practice even forced books like MGM/Mirage to use a ML on Totals...in an effort to turn-off "middle seekers"...This is why I believe that we are now seeing 199 & 199.5 all across the board...And although it won't receive much "volume", I do feel that the betting public will be split on the Total for this game...So they shouldn't provide any added pressure for the books on this Total...With that said, barring another "Buy-Order" on the OVER...which is definitely not out of the question, since according to my "Line"...there is still plenty of value on the OVER...we probably won't see too much movement...VR

I do expect that this will be on my Card for Tonight...Because like I said above, there really is still some more value on the OVER for us to take advantage of...And with all the attention on the BCS Championship game, I think that we will be able to get some added value in NBA & CBB tonight...

Thanks again for your continued support, and best of luck...Vegas-Runner.

NBA "TRUE STEAM" for TUE 1-5-09

vegas-runner — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 18:36:00 GMT

Allright fellas...forgive me for getting today's "TRUE STEAM" up a bit later than usual...But I had the opportunity to gather some more information and took advantage of it because we have a great board to work with tonight and I want to make sure that I use every source of information that we have access to...

Which is exactly what I did for tonight's isolated bet...This is a play that my own Ratings/Numbers support the most and should make tonight's Premium Card...

So let's get right to it...and see if we can cash this one tonight...

NBA "TRUE STEAM" for Tuesday 1-5-09 :

1.) PISTONS opened +9....Now +8.5

Once again we have a "Steam Play" which is very easy to miss, due to the fact the adjustment made by the books looks minor...But nothing could be further from the truth, and I'll explain why...CRIS opened this game up at 9, and more importantly...PINNY opened it up at -9 (+100)...And the Outfits went to work, buying up all the DET +9 that was out there...What is really telling about the Pinny line is that it appears they didn't want the Outfits taking the points with them, which isn't what you would expect, since the betting public is expected to come in heavy on Dallas...And this is one of those games, where they can expect some "volume"...So it appears that at 9, the books felt the public would be taking the worst of it for sure...But what they didn't plan on, was the Wiseguys coming in so strong...Because I can tell you for fact, that this is a big position for the Outfits, which may even grow some...And they are the ONLY reason that this line hasn't gone the other way, up to -10...in anticipation of what's to come, as soon as the public bettors begin to get down for tonight...Finally, we can be pretty sure that the Wiseguys love this position, because they could have very easily sat back and waited on those public bettors to possibly give them even more value on this play...But as soon as one of those Betting Syndicates showed their hand...the rest decided to join the party and go to work...This is why we are now looking at -8.5, all across the board, even at Bodog...which caters to public money...VR

LINE PREDICTION : As I stated up top, my own Ratings/Numbers show that this line is still too high at 8.5...And I'm surprised the Wiseguys haven't come back for more yet, and forced the books to drop it some more...Because even though their position is significant already, there is still plenty of value there...But what we may be seeing, is them showing a little patience...by allowing the public money to begin coming in on the fav, which just may get them +9 again...I wouldn't be surprised if the books went ahead and adjusted later in the day, but if they do...then it will most likely prompt the Outfits to do some more "shopping"...

Bottom line...I would lock up any +9 that comes up, because unless there is an change in the line-up...I don't think that even all that public money is going to drive the line up above that opening number...

And if you feel that myself and the Wiseguys are on the wrong side...Then I would go ahead and wait, just in case another "Buy-Order" goes out...Because right now, it's at -8.5...So even if the books were to adjust it back up to the "opener", you wouldn't be losing much value at all...But if it were to get to 8, you would be actually gaining some extra value for sure...VR

Thanks again fellas for all your support...We have a great board to work with tonight...Which is packed with my favorite type of match-ups..."PRIME-TIME"...So let me get back to work, and put together another kick-ass card for tonight's action...Best of Luck, Vegas-Runner.

Mon CBB "True Steam"..Trying To Stay PERFECT !!

vegas-runner — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 16:51:00 GMT

Allright fellas...we are a PERFECT "3-0" on CBB "TRUE STEAM" Bets...And tonight, we are going to put that little run on the line with another "Early Move"...

This is the time of the season, where the books begin to adjust the way they factor "Public Perception" into the "Line"...Because with the NFL Season over...and just a handful of Bowl Games left...we will begin seeing more and more recreational bettors, move over to basketball...

And for some reason or other...it just seems that bettors prefer CBB so much more than they do the NBA...At least until the Playoffs get here...

So we should begin to see some real "Value" as this adjustment takes place...over the next few weeks...

After looking at Monday's board...it appears to me that the oddsmakers/bookmakers have already begun adjusting...

And we will look to stay PERFECT in CBB...with another ISOLATED BET...Which should also make my Premium Card tonight...VR

CBB "TRUE STEAM" for Monday 1-4-10 :

1.) CS NORTHRIDGE opened -1....Now -1.5/-2

This is one of those moves that most bettors will miss as being a "Steam Play"...because the "line move" isn't that significant, and more importantly...after going up, we saw it come back down...And I'm going to tell you why in a moment, but first...let me just add that I made my "TRUE LINE" for this game CSN -3...So I was glad to see that some of the Outfits agreed with that number, and went ahead and "Steamed" CSN as soon as the line went up...But here is where this one gets a bit tricky...

The first thing you need to realize is that there are a handful of Betting Syndicates who not only bet big money...but more importantly, have a reputation for winning...And although many times, these Syndicates have similar opinions...there are other times that they don't...And this is one of those times...

Because this "line move" was not an attempt at a "middle"...Nor are those Outfits who laid -1 & -2 with CSN trying to "Buy-Back" and get off the game...In fact, they went ahead and took an even bigger position...after being challenged by other Wiseguys on this bet...

So what happend was that after a few of the Outfits went ahead and "Steamed" CSN...And forced the adjustment up to -2.5 and even -3...there was another Outfit or two, that saw "Value" on UC Davis...And they bought up all the +3 & +2.5 that they could get their hands on...

This move forced the books to re-adjust this line all the way down to -1.5 and even -1 again, not sure what was going on...And those Outfits that laid the points with CSN to begin with, then came back and took another position on CSN and forced it back up to -2 & -2.5...Which is when we saw the others come back and take the points again...

Many times when this happens, I will simply pass...But other times, just like for this one...I will instead follow my own Ratings, especially when they are supported by one of the Outfits who is kicking ass at the present time...And in this case, one of the winningest Outfits in CBB for the last 3-5 years, is the one who bet all that CSN money at the start, and came back for more...

And we have seen those bets get more respect from the books...even though they expect the Public to come in on the Dog...VR

LINE PREDICTION : Like I said, the books expect the public to come in on UC Davis...Since they are home, have the better record, and are a dog...But I don't think that this game, especially with CFB going on tonight...will end up getting enough "volume" from the public bettors, to minimize some of the liability the books will have on CSN...Which is why we should see this line get to -2, if not higher as we approach game-time...With that said, those Outfits that like UCD may decide to increase their position...in which case we would see a drop...

Bottom Line...if you agree with myself and the Outfits that backed CSN...then I would go ahead and lay -1.5 now...But if you disagree, and like the UCD side...then you may want to wait and try to get better than +2...

Myself, I'm going to trust my Ratings...and side with the Wiseguys who are doing the most Damage in CBB at the moment...\

Thanks again for all your support, and best of luck...Vegas-Runner.

NFL "TRUE STEAM" FINAL WK..."24-8" (75%) L/2 MONTHS !!

vegas-runner — Fri, 01 Jan 2010 19:09:00 GMT

Allright fellas, it's New Year's Day and I'd like to wish you all a very Happy & Healthy New Year ahead...With nothing but enjoyment, and prosperity for you and your family...I got up real early this morning...and am looking forward to watching some Bowl Games before getting ready for the Weekend ahead and getting some rest as well...But I promised you that I would make sure to take the time out...to gather the information on "Early Moves" and get them out in a Blog...Because the Final Week of the NFL Season is like no other, and I know that you were looking forward to my "TRUE STEAM" for Week 17...

And there was just no way that I was going to let you down...Especially since you have all shown nothing but support throughout the entire football season...I know how much you look forward to the information, and I know that many use it for their own handicapping...So for that, I'm honored...And I will continue to try and pass along the most "accurate" information about the betting market that I possibly can...

What I decided to do for the Final Week...since it is just so much different than any other...Is go over "ALL" of the "Early Moves"...and define them for you...So that you can know for sure, what's behind the "Line Move" to date...Then you can monitor them from here on out, and draw your conclusions much easier...

You have to realize that the oddsmakers adjust for "Must Win" situations...And that don't mean those MustWins won't cover...But you do have to know going in that you are not getting any "Line Value"...And instead you are getting the worst of it because you are paying a premium for that "Must Win" team...

Many times, these situations are what's behind the "Line Moves"...And other times, the "Moves" are based on what the sportsbooks have pending...And more importantly, other times it's based on the fact the "Playoff Picture" changes as earlier games go final...And other times, it's based on weather, injury, ect...And finally, it's many times due to "Steam"...

So I won't isolate a "Best Bet" for this week...Because I like to wait until game-day to finalize my positions...But I will go ahead and let you know what "Early Moves" are "TRUE STEAM"...and which aren't...VR

(Because we are doing EVERY game...I will get to the bottom line, and indentify/define the "move"...Rather than analyze how the Wiseguys took their positions, and how the sportsbooks then reacted...like we usually do, since they aren't all "Steam")

NFL WEEK 17 : "LINE MOVES"

1.) IND at BUF = The Wiseguys Steamed the BILLS -6 as soon as the line came out, all the way UP to -9...They also Steamed the UNDER...Books so far say that the "Betting Public" is going the other way on BOTH, the Side & Total...Taking Indy & Over...And that money just may out-weigh the Wiseguy money as we approach kick-off.

2.) NO at CAR = It's "FRIDAY" and the books aren't willing to put up a Betting Line, not even in a "Circle"...That shows how fearful they are of the Wiseguys...and how little confidence they have in their oddsmakers.

3.) JAX at CLE = The line opened -2.5, and this "move" is based on "air" and not money....Looks like the books are trying to stay ahead of the anticipated heavy "Public Money" that will be bet on JAX...Because the Wiseguys left it alone when it opened, and I haven't heard of any group behind that move...The Total is another story, the Wiseguys Steamed the UNDER...while the :Public" is expected to go Over.

4.) PHI at DAL = Wiseguys have not attempted to take any position...There has not been any opportunity to lay -2.5 or take +3.5, so they will probably sit this out...We may see the "Vig" move, but this shouldn't come off the "Key Number" or "3"...Looks like the "Public" like the Philly side, even on the ML...according to some books...The Wiseguys went UNDER immediately, but the books expect to get balance because they expect the "Public Money" will come in on the Over.

5.) CHI at DET = This is an example of the Wiseguys just letting the books know that this line should be "3"...Because they were willing to lay -2.5, but that's NOT Steam...That's just a "Value Bet" that they will make...And if they saw any 3.5's, then they would have grabbed that also...The books don't want to go there but they are expecting to get a lot of pressure from "Public Money" as game-day approaches and we just may see it...The Total hasn't moved at all.

6.) NE at HOU = The Wiseguys were willing to lay the "Key Number" of "7"...after they laid -6.5, where they could fine it with the TEXANS...This shows you just how much respect they demand, because the "Public" is expected to come in heavy on the Pats...No real move on the Total, just a slight 1/2 pt adjustment upwards...Which I'm sure is based on "anticipated action" more than anything else.

7.) PIT at MIA = "No Move" by the Wiseguys for this game...But the "Public" has forced the books to adjust the "Vig" on the Steelers...And that "Public Money" is expected to continue coming in on the Steelers...The most we should see is more "Vig", because if they come off of "3"...the Wiseguys will be tempted to get involved..."No Move" on the Total.

8.) NYG at MIN = The "Public Money" is expected to come in on the Dog (NYG) and Over...The Wiseguys haven't gotten invloved at all, and the books have not had to adjust their "Opening Numbers".

9.) CIN at NYJ = The Wiseguys Steamed the "Key Number" of "7"...And then from there, came back and Steamed the NY JETS again and have forced the books to adjust all the way up to "10"...Even though they expect the "Public" to back the Bengals..."Middle Opportunity" is there for the taking...I'm interested to see if the Outfits take it...The Wiseguys also Steamed the UNDER, which will balance the books because the "Public" is expected to bet Over...Again though, the books adjusted the Total for that Steam.

10.) SF at STL = The books have not had to make any adjustments, to the Side or Total for this game...The Wiseguys haven't looked to take any positions, and since it's on the "Key Number" of "7"...the books should only have to adjust the "Vig" for any "Public Money", which is expected to come in on the 49ers...The Total isn't getting much action at all, and has yet to move off the "Opener".

11.) ATL at TB = The sportsbooks are going to be forced to take a "Position" on this game...and even gave up a "Middle" attempt, to the Outfits...who have ATL +1 and TBAY +3...Their main "Position" is on ATL, and with the "Public" expected to bet ATL too...the sportsbooks will be forced to hope that the oddsmakers were right...There hasn't been much movement on the Total, but the books are expecting Over money which is why we've seen a 1/2 Pt move.

12.) GB at ARZ = The books have come off the "Key Number" of "3"...and gone to -3.5 on the Cards...But if you look closely, you will notice that the "Vig" was already adjusted on "3"...And now it's been adjusted on "3.5" also...This assures us that it's not "Steam"...And the books that I spoke with all expect to need the Arizona side on Sunday...The Wiseguys have "Steamed" the UNDER, which forced the adjustment downwards on the Total...even though the "Public" will be on the Over.

13.) KC at DEN = The Wiseguys have worked a "Middle" on this game, and do not have a "True Position"...In fact, what they did was lay -11 on DEN, then take +13 on KC...And it will sit at 12 for now at most shops because the Outfits got off the game...The "Public" is expected to take the points with KC for this game...The Outfits also bet some UNDER 39, but stopped when it got to the "Key Number" of 38..."Public" is expected to bet Over.

14.) BAL at OAK = The books will be forced to take a position again because the Wiseguys and the "Public" are on the RAVENS...The books have adjusted some, but don't be surprised if they "move" it some more...They are going to want to defend the "Middle" as long as possible but more Ravens pressure will force them to open up...No "Move" on the Total.

15.) WAS at SD = The books just hung up a bad number here...Because they rushed to lower it all the way from as high as "8"...all the way to a low of "3"...With the Wiseguys buying up REDSKINS the whole way...To add insult to injury, they then came back and laid -3 for some money on SD...trying to nail a "Middle"...The books are hoping that the "Public" can bail them out some, if they bet SD as expected...The Outfits also "Steamed" the UNDER.

16.) TEN at SEA = The Wiseguys "Steamed" the Dog (SEA) +5.5 and then again at +4.5...which is why we are now looking at a line of 4...The books expect the "Public" will bail them out by betting Tenn on Sunday, but they will be forced to take a "Position" on the Total...Because the Outfits and the "Public" is on the OVER...And the line's gone from 43.5 to 45 already.

There you are fellas...All 16 NFL Match-Ups for the Final Week of the Regular Season...

We have had an incredibly successful NFL Season...Being RANKED #1 or #2 for a huge portion of it, and currently #2 going into the Final Week...

The "TRUE STEAM" has also been extremely successful...and I look forward to continuing throughout 2010...

Thanks again for your support, and I hope you like what I decided to do for Week 17's "TRUE STEAM" Blog...Best of Luck, Vegas-Runner.

Wed CBB "True Steam"..Trying To Stay PERFECT !!

vegas-runner — Wed, 30 Dec 2009 14:29:00 GMT

We cashed another CBB "True Steam" Bet last night...So I'm going to stay in CBB and see if we can remain PERFECT for '09...Because what I've been seeing lately in the NBA...is the Betting Syndicates setting plays up early, then coming back with their "True Positions" much later in the day...

Obviously, the Sportsbooks will realize this...and adjust accordingly, like they have to do all the time...As one tries to stay ahead of the other in this market...And as that happens, I will be much more confident in knowing their actual intentions when they make those "early moves"...

In the mean time...I will be extemely selective in the NBA...And try to focus mostly on those CBB "Early Moves"...

That's exactly what I've done this morning...And I think we have a position that is offering up a lot of "Value"...Plus, we can still get an excellent number and take full advantage...

So let's get right to it...and see if we can make it 3 Straight CBB Winners...VR

CBB "TRUE STEAM" for Wed 12-30-09 :

1.) VIRGINIA opened -2....Now -2.5

This is another "early move" that will definitely be missed by most...And it's one of those "positions" that is concealed well, because the books aren't forced to adjust too much...Thanks to the betting public, who is expected to come in on the other side...More importantly, this game also features an "Injury" concern...with Virginia Forward Mike Scott listed as "questionable" with an ankle injury...Now with the Wiseguy waiting until the day after the line first went up for this match-up...we can conclude 1 of 2 things...That the Outfits either "confirmed" that Scott will play, and are getting a jump on the books...Or, that the Outfits know that he won't play...but feel that the books have over-adjusted for this...Either way, we can be sure that the Wiseguys like the Virginia side after having some time to handicapp the match-up...Since as I said earlier...this is one of those "early moves" that the Syndicates didn't jump on immediately, but instead came back this morning...to claim a position on Virginia...And that is why we are seeing this line now at -2.5...almost all across the board...VR

LINE PREDICTION : For starters, I agree with the books that I've already spoke with...that the betting public will be on UAB for this game...And that will help the books balance the game, since the Wiseguys bet Virginia...I will not be surprised at all, to see this line come back down to 2 as the UAB money starts to come into the books...And if word comes out that Scott won't play, then the books may feel confortable in adjusting even more, possibly down to a PK...But what I do want to add is that my Ratings/Numbers show that the Virginia side is offering up more than enough Value to justify a wager...even without Scott...So for us, and I believe the Wiseguys as well...whether he plays or not isn't going to change our position, instead, it may only strengthen it if he does go...And any adjustment would be made by the books based on that news, and not because of "steam"...So don't let that type of move scare you off, later in the day...Because either way, right now we are getting an extremely fair number on the Virginia side...And if you don't agree and like UAB, then I would go ahead and grab the points now...Because you really shouldn't get a better number by waiting...VR

I usually stay away from games with "Injuries"...when I'm not 100% sure of the status before making my wager...But in this spot, the Wiseguys let me know from their actions this morning...that my Ratings/Numbers are on point for this one...And that the Value is definitely on the Virginia side...

So let's see if we can Cash another one...and stay PERFECT in CBB this season...Best of Luck, Vegas-Runner.

Tuesday CBB "TRUE STEAM"..."1-0" in '09 !!

vegas-runner — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 16:53:00 GMT

We have not been able to get the "TRUE STEAM" going in NBA & CBB, like we've done in the NFL & CFB...

In fact, we are now 2-3 on Basketball "TRUE STEAM" so far this season...

And are "24-8" (75% ATS) in the NFL & CFB over the L/8 Weeks...

But if you remember, it was early on...even in football, where we had some struggles...But as I strengthened my own Ratings, and the Wiseguys did the same...we were able to gain that needed EDGE over the Books...

And that's exactly what should happen in NBA & CBB as well...

We've only Isolated 1 CBB "Early Move"...which was a Winner, in Basketball...

So for Tuesday...I went ahead and Isolated another CBB "Steam Play" made by the Outfits...

Which was supported by my own Ratings/Numbers as well...To try and get us a Winner for tonight...VR

CBB "TRUE STEAM" for Tuesday 12-29-09 :

1.) NORTHEASTERN opened -4.5....Now -5.5

This is one of those "Early Moves" that the Wiseguys waited on "Outs" to get down...Because this is more or less an "Added Game" which the books would initially take limited action on, as soon as the line went up...So what the Betting Syndicates did, was wait until more books began offering a betting line for this match-up...So that when they did show their hand, they were able to get down the amount they hoped for at the desired number...And that's exactly what happened early this morning, when in a matter of only "15" minutes...the Wiseguys went to work, laying -4.5 & -5 on Northeastern...Some were even able to lay -4, because when the Wiseguys passed on this game when the line first went up on Monday...many books felt safe to go ahead and drop the line to 4, because they anticipate plenty of "public money" to be bet on the DOG as we approach tip-off...And I believe that even at 4.5, the line was already shaded towards the anticipated public money that's going to come in on Santa Clara...Because my Ratings/Numbers support the "move" made by Outfits on the Favorite...And even at 5.5, I still believe that the betting value is on Northeastern...VR

LINE PREDICTION : Now according to my Ratings, and I'm sure it's the same with the Ratings used by many of these Outfits who are behind these "Steam Plays"...the line could still go higher...But because I was informed that the Outfits were able to get down plenty at -4, -4.5, & -5...and there is no word on another "Buy-Order"...I don't think it will...And in fact, with the public expected to come in on the Dog...I think that the books will feel safe enough, that they go ahead and bring it back down some...To try and give the public the worst number possible, without temtping the Outfits again with the Favorite...Because like I said above, even at 5.5...the Ratings show that the Value is on Northeastern still...So the only thing that is going to matter now, is the amount of Volume that the books handle from the public on this match-up...And truth is, that with Bowl Games on...and plenty of NBA & CBB...this game may not get too much...But since what they do get is expected to come in on Santa Clara, we will probably see the books adjust this line back to 5...With that said, if you see any get to 6...then rest assured that the Wiseguys are taking yet another position on the Favorite...Because based on what the public is going to do, this line should now only move in one direction...DOWN...VR

Let's see if we can get a Winner tonight and get on a nice "TRUE STEAM" Basketball run...like we've done in Football...

I want to Thank You all for your continued support, and wish you all the best of luck...Vegas-Runner.