Vegas-Runner

Vegas-Runner's NFL & NCAAFB "RELEASE TIMES"

2008-08-29T16:18:00Z

**I highly recommend that Both my Subscribers & Daily Players Read this All Carefully**

The football season is finally in full swing and we continue to grow as a community with so many new members joining us daily. Because of that, I thought it would be a good idea to inform my Subscribers and Daily Players of how we will manage "Releasing Bets" during football. As those who have been with me for a while can tell you, we do things a little differently than most and because I do approach this as an investment for my clients, my priority has and always will be to produce a Profit, while attempting to also pass along the knowledge that it takes to truely profit in this racket.

I know that most bettors would prefer to simply get the package when they wake up and have the bets already in there so they can go on with their other responsibilites, but unfortunately, we just don't work that way. As a Paid Capper it would definately be in my best interest to do it like that because I lose at least 50% in sales due to the fact, working with me requires some work on your part as well. You see, I have always used this market as a means to profit and nothing more. I have worked with some of the "sharpest" bettors and syndicates in the industry and my goal is to bring that to Pregame. Although I now share my bets with others, I will always approach this the same way I have before taking on this venture because I know that's what works.

I have moved "steam" for longer than I care to remember and I know for fact that although many things are set up during the week. The real "steam" comes Game-Day when so much is going on at the books with the recreational bettors that we were always able to sneak in there and do our Damage while never tipping our hand through the week. So I decided from day 1 that I would forgo sales, for the sake of providing the very best information to my clients as possible. And to be totally honest, this has also enabled me to work with serious people who understand that their ability to treat this like a business is what will allow for it to pay like one.

Fortunately, we were able to work out most of the kinks during the NCAABB Season and our method produced OVER "100" UNITS of Profit.and the NCAAFB Season shapes up more or less the same way, especially on Saturdays. The NFL doesn't require as much commitment due to the fact the scheduling is a bit more favorable. So without further delay, here is what you can expect :

WEEKLY, MONTHLY, SEASONAL, & YEARLY SUBSCRIBERS :

NFL WEEKDAYS (MNF) = Between 6:00 & 6:30 pm est

NFL SUNDAYS = 12:00 pm est....7:00 pm est (SNF on NBC)...There may also be times when I know ahead of time that we are awaiting Confirmation for a Late-Afternoon Bet and will Inform you of that in my Daily Thread and those bets will be up by 3:00pm est)

NCAAFB WEEKDAYS = Between 6:00 & 6:30 pm est

NCAAFB SATURDAYS = 11:00 am est....2:00 pm est....6:00 pm est

Now Please keep in mind that we may not always need all of the Updates, especially early in the Season when we have less Bets...but I want to always have the opportunity to get my players the strongest information and this is what worked best for College BB...

DAILY PLAYERS :

Weekday Daily Packages will be Available the same as it has always been with the only difference being that for MNF & WEEKDAY NCAAFB we will have the Package Finalized by 6:00 to 6:30 pm est

SAT NCAAFB = DAY/AFTERNOON "HEAVY HITTERS" 1:00 - 1:30 pm est (w/ Early Bets Loaded at Least 1hr before Game-Time)

SAT NCAAFB = NIGHT "HEAVY HITTERS" 6:00pm est

SUN NFL = 12:00 pm est....7:00 pm est (SNF on NBC)

As you can see it will be a little different for DAILY Packages and I will try to get Every Bet into the Package that my Subscribers will be receiving...but at times that becomes impossible because when the 1st game in the Package goes off...we are unable to Add any Bets because it comes down off the system.

Also, as you can see there will be "2" DAILY PACKAGES for NCAAFB because there is just so much info coming in throughout Game-Day that splitting them up is the only way that I can best attempt to get you everything Subscribers get. I will do what I did in NCAABB and that is reduce the Price of each Package so that you are able to Join us for the Entire Day without it costing you $50+.

Please keep in mind that we will all do everything in our power to stick to these times as best we can and only stray from them when we have no choice....Because I believe that if you are willing to commit to me as a SUBSCRIBER long-term...well then the least I can do is pass along EVERY BET that I am making for myself and our Fund...

Like I said from the start. I do ask that my clients/partners understand that betting to win and investing in the market like a Professional takes some definate work on your part and I will always attempt to make it as convenient as possible and avoid some updates when we can. But with that said, the reason We Win and the reason my Clients are able to Profit more on this Investment than others is because we do approach this like a Professional, Winning bettor does...and truth be told, that is the only way I know how.

Although I have all the confidence in the world that the Packages I put up Daily offer anyone the best chance of beating the books. In the end, my main responsibility and obligation to my clients is to produce a profit and to do that in this market, like any other, it won't come over night and it won't come from taking shots. Instead, it comes from always approaching this correctly and with discipline and patience. I am not a Gambler and never really was, and as enjoyable as this is for me, I do it for sheer profit and because of that I have been able to provide an excellent living for myself compliments of the books - an excellent investment for anyone who is willing to follow along.

Remember, this isn't an easy market to beat and there are very few people who can actually not only claim they can, but more importantly Prove it. I mean, wouldn't everyone just bet sports if they could?? That is why you will be able to see exactly where we stand for the Month and the Year and I will always provide more than just a record or a marketable streak from me. Instead, you will find in my daily threads a couple of times per week an EXACT DOLLAR AMOUNT WON/LOST based on $100 Per Unit for ALL of my Bets. I believe you deserve to know if the information you are being asked to pay for is actually valuable and more importantly - capable of producing a Profit. There are very few people willing to do that and we all can figure out the reasons why.

So Welcome to the team, and I want to wish you the best of luck and a very enjoyable and prosperous experience betting on the sports market with us...

Thanks again, Vegas-Runner

NFLX WEEK 4 & NCAAFB WEEK 1 QUESTIONS

2008-08-27T16:01:00Z

In my daily thread this morning, I was asked to answer 2 questions pertaining to this week's NCAAFB & NFL Match-Ups...and I thought that I would take a moment and put up a Blog Post because many may be wondering about my opinions on these same matters. The questions were how do I approach Week 4 of the NFL Preseason, with all the different strategies applied by the various teams in many of the match-ups...and second question was whether I approach Week 1 of the NCAAFB Season differently than the rest, and whether it's true that Favs are more prone to covering ???

First, let's get to Week 4 of the NFL Preseason...I feel that there are definately some good opportunities to take advantage of even in the Final Week as long as you are willing and able to be extemely selective and realize that if you have the game-plan info...then you can be almost 100% sure that the oddsmakers did as well. What that means is, there will be very little value to capitalize on when it becomes official who will play and for how long. Meaning, if Team A is a 3pt Fav and Wed Night announces that they plan on Playing NO Starters at all on Friday...then they will obviously become the Dog and the Value on Team B may no longer be there. Also, if I remember correctly, you can also expect to see much less movement than the previous 3 Weeks, where we were treated to 6pt lines moves like it was nothing. The reason for this is simple...Just like we have created a summary of each coach's tendencies as far as how they approach each week of the Preseason, to how they manage the end of a regular season game, when ahead or behind...I am sure the oddsmakers have also. But with that said, there is opportunities, but this Week you need to go a little deeper in your reasoning when taking a stand, than the normal comparison of personnel that we can get away with early on. Finally, and most IMPORTANT...and this is one of the things that I have noticed most, since becomming more familiar with how recreational bettors approach the market, that I didn't realize before I decided to share my work here at Pregame...and truthfully never even realized when booking because back then, although I was able to pick up on patterns which help me to this day, I never really got a chance to hear their reasoning behind their bets...So getting back to that important factor...The one thing that I believe too many bettors are unable to do is change their minds...meaning, to be very successful as a handicapper and even as a sports bettor...you need to be willing to like the Favorite at -3...but be willing to Unload on the Dog 2 days later if you can get +5...Too many bettors do their capping and like the Team -3 but do not have a grasp of actual value/strength.

I was fortunate to have begun my career as a handicapper while working for many of the syndicates moving "Steam"...and was quickly taught that we may love the Fav -9.5...but the Dog is a LOCK if you can get them at +12. And it was all of those years of working around that type of reasoning that has allowed me to totally look at this market as a numbers game and nothing more...So as much as I love sports, and I love to watch them and get into them just like you do...I also make sure that when it comes to my betting, I put all of that aside and I treat it strictly like a business and a market. Because the key to beating it is by having the ability to analyze Prices and determine the "True Worth"...and then look to take advantage of the discrepency between what they are selling it at, and what you are willing to spend for it.

Now the 2nd question which deals with Week 1 of the NCAAFB Season and how I approach it is pretty complex because I am one of those handicappers who is always willing to adjust my initial thinking and numbers. I have absolutely no ego at all when it comes to my numbers and the ability to quickly determine I have made a mistake is what I credit a lot of my success to. In Week 1 of the NCAAFB Season everyone is excited and looking for action and the books know this. For myself, I approach each sport in sections...meaning there are various parts to a season and you have to be equiped to adjust your reasoning accordingly. In Week 1, I remember when I was a Runner...we may had made 30 bets, but truth was, we really only needed 4-5 sides/totals...Because the rest were simply arbitrary opportunities based on experience. For instance, I can tell you that you can almost blindly bet EVERY UNDER when the numbers come out and have an opportunity for a middle on Game-Day...Now we didn't do it blindly but I can tell you that when the numbers first went up...I was lined up ready to take a ratio of 9 Unders to 1 Over every year. But getting back to my approach, I tend to be very selective during the 1st week because I know the sportsbooks have had enough time to properly adjust the numbers sent to them by the oddsmakers...and from booking I can tell you that you will be looking at the public backing almost EVERY single Fav...In fact, even with some sharp money on the Dogs...the books will be heavy on the Fav of probably every single game. And with good reason because I don't have it right here in front of me because I am not at my home office yet, but I believe something like 65% of Favs Covered Week 1 last year in NCAAFB and about 63% of Favs Covered the Prime-Time Televised Games which get the most Volume...Will that happen this year, maybe not to that extreme because obviously it stung enough that I have already seen some differences is the prices offered. But with that said, if you are a player who prefers Favs...now if the time for you to do your best work because between now and Week 3-4...all of us, including the oddsmakers will be tightening up our numbers and they will be much sharper and tougher to beat. Same holds true in the NFL more or less although this year may be an exception because after 58% of the Favs covered last year...The pressure from the books should force the oddsmakers to be willing to adjust their ratings more than ever before...something they do not like doing.

That is my take on the two topics and I hope my answers shed some light into how I feel about them...like I said, these are very complex issues and to truely give a deeper explaination of my reasoning would take a lot of time and right now, there is just too much work that needs to get done. Please feel free to go into the Pod-Cast Weekly Question Thread in the Forum and post some of the questions/topics you would like me and the other cappers on the panel to discuss...because I believe that you can get a better feel for what we really want to get across from it, than from writing....Thanks again for all of your support and best of luck...Vegas-Runner

BALANCE YOUR HANDICAPPING & WIN

2008-08-20T17:43:00Z

Most of you guys know that I have been in the sports gaming industry my entire life. In fact, besides investments that I have made with the help of sports betting, I have never made an income any other way. Because I began as a bookmaker, I got the opportunity to meet what I believe to be every type of "gambler" there is...and fortunately, after hanging that up for a life of moving "Steam" for some of the most well recognized betting syndicates...I was also able to come across just about every type of "Sharp Handicapper"...and Finally, since coming to Pregame and agreeing to share my bets with others...I have had the pleasure to get a very up close perspective of the way many bettors come to a decision when trying to handicapp a match-up...

So after all of these years in the industry, I have come to the conclusion that there are 3 types of handicappers...Now I am not refering to Professional Sports Bettors, because they come in a variety of different personalities, and their success ultimately comes down to the individual's ability to manage their finances...In other words, the successful ones are those who have the ability to do well in other aspects of their lives financially...because those type of Pro-Bettors do this for 1 reason and 1 reason only...To Turn a Profit...

Getting back to handicappers...is another story all together. I believe that the very best all have the same gift when it comes to their work..."BALANCE"...The reason I say this is because it is the handicapper who can best combine all 3 personalities into his work, that is the biggest threat to bookmakers...So let's get to the 3 Types that I have catagorized them in :

1.) "The Sports Fan"...This type of handicapper loves sports...They are usually guys who played sports as youngsters year round and dreamed of becomming pro athletes. They watch SportsCenter 3 times per day and are in fantasy leagues and know the teams better than they know themselves. These guys will recite alma-matters and the final score of Super Bowl II...They watch the drafts and study magazines and believe that their knowledge of sports and the personnel of the teams gives them their edge over the point-spread...And when they lose, they take it hard...by getting angry and doing things like yelling at the TV...and claiming the coach made the wrong decisions to cost him...

2.) "The Conspiracy Theorist"...This type of handicapper believes that the point-spreads are like a movie and he just needs to figure out how it's going to play out in the end...These guys can be overheard saying absurd things like "Vegas Needs Miami"...or "That was fixed"...Somehow when the game lands near the number, the conspiracy is so evident to them...while the other 90% of the times it don't, they ignore...They don't care about injury reports or weather, or even the teams playing because like I said...their key to success comes by being able to "read between the lines" as they say...They almost always believe they are on the other side of the public, yet rarely are... and when they are up by 7 and laying -5...never seem surprised when the opponent kicks a meaningless FG to cost them a winning ticket, because it just means he was on the wrong side of the "Vegas Conspiracy"...

3.) "The MIT Wiz"...For this type of bettor...Data means everything. There is definately a complex formula or system which will produce winner after winner, but they just haven't completely figured it out yet. These guys don't care much about the oddsmakers opinions or what the public is doing because to them...the game could easily be figured out by stats. These guys are always tossing out stats and numbers to make them seem like they know more than anyone else...but most of the times, they don't even know how those numbers truely affect the outcome of a sporting event...

Now, please do not think that I am bashing any of these 3 types because truth is...all of us have some of these traits. Instead, I am trying to point out that if you can simply take the best qualities of ALL 3...and utilize them as a handicapper, your results will improve dramatically. The reason for this is because just like #1...you have to know your sports and your teams and love what you are doing...And just like #2...you need to account for the oddsmakers intentions and public perception...And just like #3...you need to have a good understanding of how to accurately create a strong number based on stats as well as perception...

So in my opinion, as a handicapper you need to be Balanced to have a chance to truely succeed in what is one of the most difficult markets to profit in...which is evident by the number of people who actually make a living or create a lucrative investment from sports betting...The "sharp" capper that I have had the pleasure and privilage of working with ALL had these 3 Personalities wrapped into 1...and I personally watched them switch from one to the other so smoothly as they tried to put all the pieces of the puzzle together and "Reason" properly to come to a conclusion and pick a winner...Because to have success in this racket, your biggest asset has to be your ability to reason...and your ability to reason at higher and higher levels as you gain experience..

Finally, my suggestion to all those who are striving to either become excellent handicappers or even professional sports bettors...is to make sure that you acknowledge the 3 type of ways to handicapp because they all have their strengths...while their weakness lies in the handicappers inability to look past, only their own way of doing things and not realizing that EVERY one of those types is what will allow this market to ultimately become beatable for you...Best of Luck, Vegas-Runner...

How To: POWER-RATING OFFENSE in MLB

2008-08-13T18:57:00Z

The football season is definately upon us, so I thought it would be an excellent idea to look into ways bettors can take advantage of baseball...because as the oddsmakers attention is focused more and more on football, since obviously it is their clients biggest handle...the opportunities to step up and exploit the weak money-lines that will be posted can be plenty. And from experience, I can tell you that even though we as bettors are also excited about football getting here...let's not ever forget what the real reasons we wager on sports should be...to Make Money...and as an investor in this market, you should care very little where the profit comes from...as long as it keeps coming.

There are 3 different methods that I use each morning that gives me a "Bottom Line"... offensively, defensively, starting pitching, and bull-pens...And I began developing those various methods through the years as I began to get a clearer picture of what stats actually help to determine a ML winner because it is much different than when trying to beat a "point-spread". When we attempt to beat a point-spread, what we are ultimately doing is determining which side has the edge based on the "points" being given or taken. But when we try to beat a ML, it becomes much simpler if we are able to come up with a team's probability to win, and then compare that to the ML price and see if we have an overlay or an underlay.

The way to do that is by being able to determine the probable runs scored and runs allowed for the match-up...because in the end, that is how team win...by outscoring their opponent. Now through the years, I have been able to create some complex ways to do this and it takes a lot of work. I also know that the majority of sports bettors have too many other obligations to be able to do these things for each match-up. And the majority of bettors just don't have the luxery to apply these different formulas and equations to be as efficient at the oddsmakers...but that doesn't mean that there still aren't simpler ways to measure the different factors that go into determining the outcome of a MLB game...

So I am going to pass along to you...the very 1st method that I was shown when working in the offices that moved "Steam"...to help me quickly evaluate an offense and see which team has the advantage. And to be straight with you guys...it was actually from this very simple method that every other formula we use today was created...

First off as bettors, the only thing we are interested in when looking at a team's offense is their ability to score runs. There is absolutely NO OTHER, more important part of the game of baseball...because your pitcher can toss a 1 hitter, but if that 1 hit was a HR and his team was unable to score from thier hits...then his 1 hitter don't help cash a ticket. Bottom Line...grade offense by: On-Base % and Slugging %...because the ability to get on base, and then drive'em in is what we need to focus on. Now when we look at an MLB Match-up and want to compare offenses...we need something to compare them to...the measuring device we use is the "Individual League" for each team...meaning, we want to know how each team measures up compared to the other teams in their league...and here is how it is done....

1.) Take the NL/AL OB% and Multiply it by the SLUG%...for example...the NL OB% = .329 & SLUG% = .412...for a TOTAL of .136 (round off to the 1000th)

2.) Take the Team's OB% and Multiply it by the SLUG%...for example...the REDS OB% = .321 & SLUG% = .406...for a TOTAL of .130 (round off to the 1000th)

3.) Take the TEAMS TOTAL (.130) and DIVIDE by the NL TOTAL (.136) = .955...That simply tells you that the REDS OFFENSE is 5% Below the NL Average

Now you can do the same for thier opponent and easily be able to compare the offenses...and as time goes on you will be able to see how it relates to the price offered and determine the value offensively.

What I was also told to do, was to dig even further to get an even clearer and more accurate picture of the actual match-up at hand...So what I then did was do the exact same thing except this time cover the details instead of just an Overall Account :

1.) HOME or AWAY

2.) vs LHP or vs RHP

...and after that, you will have 3 seperate numbers that show you exactly how each team compares to the League Average for that particular game...So for Tonight's match-up...You would have 3 numbers for the REDS...Overall, Road, vs LHP since that is what the offense will be up against.

Remember, this is a very simple method, but it will definately go a long way in assuring you that you took the offense into account correctly when handicapping the match-up because you actually did the work it requires. I mean, just looking at the Batting Average really tells you nothing that will truely help determine a winner, nor does it tell you the true value, or lack there of...of the offense and how it compares for the particular match-up.

Like I said, since being shown this method...I have been able to come up with 2 more, with the help of some really sharp guys. And these methods allow me to be unbiased and instead be able to look at things the way they truely are...so that when I am ready to put it all together, and factor in the line, the info gathered from books and "steam", as well as finally using my experience...I am able to get a much better idea of how the game should play out...and most importantly is that the majority is based on actual facts and figures, rather than factors which are proven to be useless.

Next time you want to apply a qucik system to know which team has the "Real" edge offensively..this is definately a proven system that has survived decades and I was actually informed that it was one of the very first tried systems used by the "sharps" that gave them an edge over the books...because the books were not familiar with it yet. Below, I will list the "figures" for Both the NL and AL for all of the different factors you may want to apply them to. Keep in mind that they do change as time passes, but I have learned that as the season progresses...the changes are very small, so using only these from here to the Playoffs should be just fine...and if anything changes dramatically, I will pass it on. Thanks again for all your support and best of luck beating the books, Vegas-Runner...

NL AL

OVERALL = .136 .139

HOME = .141 .150

AWAY = .131 .129

vs RHP = .133 .140

vs LHP = .141 .139

For Interleague Play...go ahead and take the MLB Average for each and use that for Both teams...

Please feel free to ask any questions and I will do my best to get to them...and I will also look to show you an easy method for defense and pitching...as well as some ways to help you build a foundation to create "Power-Ratings" of your own for Football where it becomes even much more crucial to winning and much more important towards determing the outcome of the game....VR

ACCOUNT for RETURNING STARTERS in NCAAFB

2008-08-09T16:02:00Z

Well, since returning to Las Vegas it has become clear that the sportsbooks and the city is getting ready for the upcoming football season. Now is the time for us sports bettors to do the same as we get ready for the most exciting time of the year. Throughout the season, I intend on covering many topics and passing along many of the techniques that I use which were taught to me and have really helped me become a more efficient handicapper and professional sports bettor...and I can't stress enough, just how different the 2 actually are.

To be a professional sports bettor, you only need bankroll, money management, and solid sources of information...and the more of each that you have, the better your success should be. But today, I want to cover something that has to do with handicapping and for myself...that means being able to gather the correct information and then being able to analyze it and determine if your findings offer an edge, compared to the price the sportsbooks are using.

Early on in the season, the key to coming out of the gate quickly will all come down to preparation. So the more prepared you find yourself, the more prepared you will be to locate those edges. For myself, it almost becomes a race to see who can strengthen their numbers more accurately and quicker. As a pro handicapper and pro bettor, I will always have an edge over the sportsbooks because my success depends on me being able to win more games than I lose, while employing proper money management...while their success is determined by being able to increase their profit margin on their total handle. So that means many times, it is in their best interest to offer a weak number based soley on public perception, rather than actual strength...and by being prepared, we are able to come in and take advantage.

But to be able to do that, you need to be prepared. And early on in the season...there is nothing that we hear more about than "RETURNING STARTERS" in the NCAA...and here is where you will be able to gain a huge edge over the oddsmakers, and later the books...because you will be placing your bet, knowing what the situation truely is...and more importantly...you will be able to "Reason" at a higher level because of the simple fact that you will actually know if the price being offered is based on actual strength, or public perception...and that makes putting the pieces together and truely understanding the sportsbooks position so much clearer....Let me explain...

For the past 10+ days, almost every night even while I was away...as a team we have been breaking up every college football team...trying to come up with their offensive and defensive power ratings...for the purpose of creating a strong number to compare the actual line to. Now to do this, I was taught a handful of different systems and through the years have been able to create my own based on that foundation. Well, it wasn't until maybe the 3rd year that we went off on our own, with the plan of using our experience and sources to beat the books by betting...that I came across a concept that changed the way we guage experience...And since then, we have improved tremendously at having the ability to create a strong number even before getting a chance to have a couple of results for each team...included in the mix.

Here is what I realized, and by utilizing this...you will be able to take advantage of those times...that the perception is way off...and almost completely based on "PERCEIVED EXPERIENCE"...The first thing that most cappers look at early in the season when capping an NCAAFB Match-up is "Returning Starters"...and they either look in a magazine or web-site...that usally reads "7 Returning Starters on Off", "3 Returning Starters on Def"...and that is where it ends. Truth is, that should be where it begins...because the edge that I am speaking about has to do with what those stats don't tell you...And that is about the 4 guys on offense, and 8 guys on defense who aren't accounted for. What we had begun doing was looking at those players who aren't labled "Returning Starters" and determing actual experience.

You see, we began forming a cut-off point for experience...Meaning we would give 1pt for 10-20 Tackles and 2pts for 21-40 Tackles...and we began doing the same thing with each position...We would give a numerical value to RB for # of Carries/Yards...and did that for every position. As we began to get more polished at it and strengthening our criteria for points...it became so clear that there were so many players who had actual "Starter Experience" but instead were used primarily off the bench. And we began to see that there were certain match-ups where the number offered was so off, simply because what was being passed off as "Returning Starters"...was so far from the actual circumstances.

I couldn't believe the amount of teams who were perceived as Young, that really weren't...and you can just imagine how much of an advantage you can find when you know something which may not been factored into the line. Now I am not saying that the oddsmakers are not aware of this. And I would bet that they take everything that I just wrote into account. And that is just fine....because what we are looking for are those spots where Both, the oddsmaker and ourselves know the "True Situation"...but based on Public Perception, they have no choice but to send out a very exploitable and inaccurate Price...Remember, this all goes back to what I mentioned above...The oddsmakers are put in positions many times where the best way to protect their clients (The Books), is to send out a "weak" number...and that is where you are able to sweep in and grab some winners because you were more prepared.

In closing, like I said...along the way you will be able to pick up certain systems and then re-design them and make them your own...like I have done through the years. And although there are many possible ways to account for the "Experience" that I am refering to...the key to success is that you Account for them. Always look a little deeper than the obvious and use what is overlooked to your advantage. Because in the end...that is what "Steam" actually is. It is a selection which comes from an outfit/pro bettor who has proven to be able to win more than he loses...therefore it's in the best interest of the books to allow this "selection" to set their price more accurately for them...And early on, by doing this exercise to prepare for the season...you will notice that so much of what is being "Steamed" is because of the exact info you were able to uncover..."EXPERIENCE", the most important factor that the public looks at during the first 2-3 weeks of a season.

So this year, when you break down the match-up and look at what both teams are returning...make sure to account for what isn't mentioned...and factor in all real Game-Time Experience..and you will begin to see so many opportunities to Profit because you came Prepared and were willing to do the work that it truely takes to beat this market. This may sound like a lot of work, but after you get a feel for the guidelines and criteria for experience it will become second nature as soon as you start to look at a team. The oddsmakers are working around the clock to try and bring out prices that will entice the bettors to take the worst of it. You can make sure that isn't the case, but you have to be willing to put in the work because this is a very difficult market to beat. The sportsbooks depend on the public looking at this as a form of gambling because that will make the bettor feel their destiny is up to luck and therefore money management and the ability to handicapp won't do much to change the odds. But I am here to tell you that nothing is further from the truth...in fact, they show us that this market is beatable each and every time they rush to move a line. That tells me that they are willing to admit they are wrong and that the price set was off. Go ahead and account for EXPERIENCE the correct way this season...and you will find them to be wrong even moreso... use that knowledge to locate the "Public Perception" games and go ahead and bury them early....Thanks again for your support and Best of Luck this Upcoming Football Season...Vegas-Runner...

VEGAS-RUNNERS NFL & NCAAFB PACKAGE & BLUE-PRINT

2008-07-24T18:43:00Z

Allright fellas...it is that time of year when everyone begins turning their attention to the upcoming football season...and that will definately mean a lot more opportunities to really do DAMAGE during the remainder of the MLB Reg Season and even more-so when the Post-Season arrives...So this is definately one of the most exciting times for me as a Pro-Sports Bettor because even though my main priority is making money in this market, I will be the first to admit that these next 5 months are some of my most enjoyable as well...So let me get right to it and explain what I will be offering for the Upcoming Football Season, and more importantly our Plan of Action...

First off...NCAA & NFL are 2 completely different markets all together...So what I tried to do is offer the most cost efficient way for my guys to be able to get every single bet that I make, and keep their expenses to a minimum at the same time so that even more Profit can be made...Now when September gets here, the Monthly All-Access will be $399 and that is because of the fact I will be covering so many different markets and as soon as the MLB Season ends, the Basketball will be here to take it's place and to be perfectly honest, initially it would have gone to $449, but I really was adament about keeping costs down and even though $15 a day isn't much for Winning Info...I want you guys to know I am fair...So if you were to buy the All-Access Monthly from Sept thru Dec it would cost about $1,600...I decided to offer the NFL & NCAAFB ENTIRE REG SEASON for $599 each...since so many took advantage of the MLB 2nd Half Special and will be getting the MLB anyway and when Basketball gets here we will figure it out as well...Anyway, I then went ahead and Discounted it even further all the way down to Only $499 for each (NFL & NCAAFB) for anyone who is willing to commit to this venture by AUG 15th...and also give the ENTIRE NFL PRE-SEASON for FREE, so if you plan on coming on board, I would definately look to take advantage early, even though on SEPT 1st when they return to $599 each, it really still is a great deal...

So that we don't have to go over this a few times...last year I didn't get a chance to be here for the Entire Football Season, but I was here from OCT to end of DEC and over the course of those 3 Months, we picked up well OVER 200 Units ($20,000 @ $100 per unit) and in October alone we picked up 114 Units ($11,400 @ $100 per unit)...and that is PROFIT with the Vig Included and checking back, we hadn't made any bet bigger than a 3*...What I do want you to understand though is that we were able to do that with a much lower Win% than I am aiming for this year...and the reason for that was sheer Volume...But now that we have tweaked the approach to be more selective and therefore allow anyone willing to invest to have the ability to bet every single bet we make...Because I realized that the majority of bettors just weren't able to keep up with so much Volume, but if you remember back to the NCAABB Season which is when the change was made...our results really improved...So I am really excited about what is ahead and although I don't want everyone coming in thinking we are going to win 300units this year guaranteed, I do want you coming in thinking that if you apply proper money management and are willing to follow along to the letter...there is no reason why you won't be able to turn an excellent profit like my clients already have...

But with that said...it will take a commitment from you because when it comes to football, we are not afraid to Fire away and with so many Marquee TV Games, which have always been our strongest...you can always expect to be in action. Last year, those of you who followed should remember how well we did with those type of games, Cashing Over 70% on MNF and Cashing the SIDE & TOTAL in 8 of 10 weeks during a stretch...And although what we did in the past don't neccessarily mean we will have success again...I can tell you that it wasn't a shock at all and to be honest, I really thought we could have even done better...The bottom line is that I work hard and I am willing to capp the entire board to find as many games as possible that we have an edge on so be ready to stay busy...

Although I will definately be offering all kind of Daily Packages...by commiting to an ENTIRE REG SEASON you will save so much money because for example...on a Sat of NCAAFB we will definately be offering 2 Seperate Cards...One for the Day/Afternoon Bets and then one for the Night Bets...and the reason for that is because not only does info continue to come in during the day especially since I have more sources for football than any other sport...but because it's like we spoke about in my thread...having the ability to already have Finals from the same board gives us such an edge on those games being played later on...And in the NFL, I will try to only have one Package for Sunday (Day/Afternoon), sometimes, just like last year I will receive info or see something on the afternoon games and have to then put up another Package...and then we have the Sun Night Game...so as you can see...Taking advantage of the SEASON Package will definately have its advantages...

This is going to be our 1st FULL SEASON of Football here at Pregame which is why we are all so excited and eager to make it one of our best ever...and like I said above, when it comes to football...we really go all out and look to use those 4-5 months to make as much Profit and put as much Units to work as we can because we know that for each dollar we put out, we will get it back with a nice return...That is called Positive Expectation Betting and the only way you can call your selections by that name is if you have truely shown a Profit...And so far in 2008 we have been able to do exactly that and when the Year is Over on Dec 31st...I expect us to have had an even better 2008 than we are having...

Finally, the one thing you will always get from me is "accountability"...I will always be there and DISCLOSE everything because I feel that if what you are selling is an Investment...well then you better be able to Prove it and I will always be here to answer any questions you have and I am never hard to find because I have never missed a day in the Forum since I began...That is why I make sure that I don't just let you know about a current good streak that I am having or using words like % and Units...because I am a Professional Sports Bettor who makes his Money Beating this Market...and since it's money that we are doing this for, then obviously you deserve to know how Much MONEY was truely Won/Lost with a cappers selections...I have always been willing to show you all exactly what betting ONLY $100 per unit on ALL of my Bets would have made you and the reason I am proud of that fact is because we have been able to show a very impressive profit when you consider that the majority of my Bets have been only 1 and 2 units each...I mean, it's nice to see a guy up 100units, but if he is giving out 20unit plays, then it really don't say much...

I would like to wish you all the best of luck in the upcoming football season, and please direct any questions, comments, or concerns that you may have and I will try to address them all as best I can...Thanks again for your support and let's have ourselves the best Year of Football ever, Vegas-Runner...

MONEY MANAGEMENT MEANS EVERYTHING...ARE YOU WILLING to PROFIT ??

2008-07-21T18:40:00Z

I have so many topics in mind that I am dying to cover here in my Blog which deal with handicapping and professional sports betting...And because I was fortunate to be brought up in this game surrounded by the most successful and sharpest bettors to ever make a wager, I was able to learn first-hand all about handicapping. In fact, those early years had helped lay the foundation for everything that I do now. Although the way I handicapp games today is a based on years of tweaking that foundation, the bottom line will always be that without that early training, as well as the opportunity to ask 1,000s of questions to guys that have been able to beat this market for a very long time...I am sure that I would not have the kind of results that I do...

You see, the handicapping part of it is not the hard part...and although it has come to my attention since taking on this venture and getting the chance to see what so many of today's bettors do as far as capping goes, that unfortunately too many just have not been shown the most efficient ways to prognosticate a sporting event. And I have also come to realize that there just isn't hardly any instructional information out there for bettors to improve. I mean, I see books on handicapping and systems to use...but none that I have seen really help to lay a foundation to help someone go in the right direction. And what happens is that we are in the information era, where so much is available at our fingertips...but unless you are explained what is useful and what isn't...and more importantly how to use it to help determine the outcome of a sporting event based on creating a stronger line than is being offered, and an accurate probability estimation to determine if value exists...

Well, to be perfectly honest...that is the easy part. And to be blunt, I can easily show many of the things that I was taught to get guys started in the right direction if they are actually interested. Because even though as I stated, through the years I have had to keep up and improve my strategies...the fundimentals remain the same, over 15yrs later...And I'm not saying that I would just "give away the store"...but there are basic methods to creating a line and things like that which can easily be taught...But that is barely half the battle, because all the ammunition in the world won't help you win a war if you don't have the army to attack with...and when it comes to being a successful pro sports bettor...your army is your bankroll...

I use the words professional sports bettor and not professional handicapper because they are entirely 2 different things...for example, I know countless handicappers, but very few pro bettors. Because to be a pro-bettor, you really don't even need to be a handicapper...In fact, while working in the offices that we moved STEAM in...out of 20 of us there on an average day, maybe 4 were handicappers. So, what I am getting to is that anyone can become a professional sports bettor as long as they are able to locate winning information. And winning info, for the sake of argument when dealing with a point-spread sport...is info that WINS 54% + of the time...In short, I know so many excellent cappers who are capable of winning even Over 56-57% in a year's time, but still aren't considered professional sports bettors because that is the area where you need "capital"...but more importantly...you need proper "Money Management"...and let me tell you, it's that area of this game which is by far the biggest problem for most...

Now, over the next few months, if some are interested..I can pass along a few methods of money-management...but truth is...everything you need is already in you. You know what is right and you know what isn't...You know that applying proper money management will allow you to possibly make sports betting an excellent investment, and yet using it becomes another story all together. Well, I want to tell you that no matter how strong your info is, and no matter how proficient you may get at handicapping...without proper money management, you are wasting your time. Because in the end, those same mistakes that allowed the books to be ahead on you...will continue to give them that same power over you...

The biggest problem that I see is that too many bettors just aren't realistic when it comes to sports betting. Because the books and casino's want us to look at it as a form of gambling, too many times, sharp people allow all reason to fly out the window. I see it with bettors who use a particular capper and as soon as he has a bad week or month, they are looking for someone hotter...The problem with that is that because someone is hotter at the time, doesn't mean they are a winning capper. So if they aren't a long time winning capper, eventually we know what will happen to your roll for following. The key, just like with a good investment fund is to find information that you know is a capable of turning a profit long-term...because if you can do that, then the only one who can stop you from making money is yourself...

What sports bettors usually lack is realism...meaning they just aren't realistic with their goals. They work hard and are great people..and they do what it takes to put together a nice bankroll to begin investing in sports...but then all of a sudden, they lose sight that it is an investment and not a gamble. Too many times, a bettor will save a $5k bankroll to begin the football season. But for some strange reason, the thought of having $6k in January just isn't very appealing...even though that exact same person would be doing backflips over their broker for turning them on to a stock which returned 20% in an ENTIRE YEAR...but do that in 4 months of football and it don't seem like anything special...

I have never been able to comprehend that type of thinking...maybe it's because I was raised very modestly and valued profit...or maybe after being surrounded by nothing but successful and sharp pro sports bettors for so long, much of their reasoning rubbed off on me. Either way, it isn't what is important...Instead what is...is that I decided a long time ago that I have the resources and knowledge, as well as the experience to make an excellent living doing the one thing I love most. And that I can do that without needing to win every day, every week, or even every month. Just the opposite, I have been able to organize my business like any other successful profit making, big corporation to endure a reccession (losing streak) or even a depression (losing year)...and still know that I will be there, working just like before the very next year...

Now, I didn't take my time to write this long post as a way to show that I am a winning sports bettor. Not to be cocky, but I have already established that through the years. But what I did write this for is to let so many of you good, hard working, and ambitious men here in this forum know...that I am no smarter than you. In fact, I'm almost positive that the majority of you have a much further scholastic education than I do. So there is no reason that you should ever not be able to beat this market over time with all the resources available...there is no reason that once you put together your bankroll, that you can't forever build your business to lengths never before imagined....and there is no reason that you should ever have to sweat any sporting results. Because you have the power to do all of that. In fact it takes very little except for having the "will" to do what so few actually do. I know just by being in this forum for 7 months that so many of you guys are sharp enough to do what I am writing about...but only you can make that choice of the way you want your sports betting to go and in turn, your lifestyle.

Finally, as I stated above...I am willing to try and teach many of you those same fundamentals about handicapping that I was...so that you can then take them and tweak them over the years and become a more efficient handicapper. I am willing to pass along some money management tips that you may also use. And, I know that even if you don't have the time to do all of the work that it takes to actually be a winning handicapper, that with all the resources available to you just at Pregame alone...that you can still turn a profit watching and wagering on something you obviously love also...Sports...But what I can't do, is take your money and do the right things with it for you. That is up to you. The best way to do this is to answer honestly, why you bet on sports ??? And that answer should be enough to show you exactly what to do next. I will end this by passing along the #1 Rule to Money Management...and that is, have realistic goals...and never stray from the ez path of achieving them...and I mean NEVER, not even for that one game that you know is a winner because once you allow yourself to do the wrong thing, then getting back to doing the right thing becomes so much tougher...

I want to wish you all the best of luck and let you know that I am here and willing to share with you a lot of what I know...with the hope that you will apply it and improve your life because as I said before...I have met so many here that really deserve it. Best of Luck, Vegas-Runner..

BOOKS GETTING BURIED by FAVS SINCE the BREAK

2008-07-19T21:07:00Z

I believe that I have corrected the problem on my end and I can get back to Blogging...there is just so much that I want to pass along to you guys that I don't know where to begin. And although I have used my Blog in the past to mostly try and pass along some knowledge and experiences to help you beat this market, today I want to touch on a topic that a book brought to my attention early this morning over the phone...

If you get a moment, take a look at the results in MLB since the teams resumed play after the All-Star Break...make sure you look closely because you just may miss something...and that something is a DOG. We are now heading into our 3rd day since the break and I am having trouble finding a DOG that won the game...Now I know that some of you will say that the REDS won last night as a Dog, but they were +105 and to me, I really don't consider that a DOG. I mean, anything less than +120 is the equivalent of taking a football team getting 1.5 on the ML in most cases...and although technically it is still a dog...I am talking about at least picking a 3pt DOG to win on the ML...lol

Even funnier is the fact that some of those DOGS that won, actually became the FAVS before game-time (PHILS) last night...And like the books I spoke to said...the "clear cut" Favorites ALL WON...and what he is refering to is any FAV -130 or higher because as I remember it when I was a runner...anything less and we didn't really call it a Dog...it was more or less a pick'em...especially since the majority of shops were not using a "dime line" at the time...

Will this trend continue...I am not sure, but I will tell you that a lot of bettors who would look forward to the MLB Season thinking they can make a profit without even hitting 50% are having a tough time staying above water. In fact, truth be told, most are getting killed and although they continue to use what has worked in the past....as a few sharps I spoke with said, those type of bettors are now in a position where they have to hit at a much higher % on their DOG plays than ever before, to try and get even before the season ends...

This takes me back to something I discussed at the very start of the season. Value is Value only when it Wins...and as a professional sports bettor, the main objective needs to be Profit and not neccessarily the road taken to get there. I said from the 1st Day of MLB that I have seen just as much Value in a -200 that I have in a +150 because Value is determined by the price being offered, compared to the actual worth...and a losing Bet isn't worth very much...I have been fortunate to have been in this game as it has evolved numerous times. From when sharps had info before the oddsmakers as well as better technology, to when the off-shore market changed the way books do business, to now, what I like to call the info era...a time when info is so available that the problem becomes...bettors just aren't experienced in knowing just what info actually helps determine an outcome...

Regardless...to be able to beat this market consistantly...we as handicappers have to be willing to accept how the market is changing and even though we need to stick to our guns and use those things that have proven to show a profit over time...we also always have to be aware of the present. I am really interested to see the results when the weekend has concluded and these series have come to an end...because so far, from what I see...the 2nd half seems to be starting off exactly the way the 1st half did...

Best of Luck, Vegas-Runner...Please let me know in my Forum Thread or Here about any topics you may want to see addressed.

Vegas-Runner's "6 MONTH's in the BOOKS" for 2008

2008-07-02T19:50:00Z

We have just reached the half-way point for 2008 and with 6 Month's in the Books...I thought that I would take the time and re-cap our year so far, along with the Balance Update that I had said I would create a Blog for. Before I get to the figures and "Bottom Line", I just want to point out that this has been an incredible experience for me and I would really like to Thank all of my clients, as well as all of the Pregame Members who have helped me make this site home. I was very excited to try and bring something new to the table and I was also very intimidated as well. The reasons were that I had made a living in this industry, both from booking and even moreso from betting and was under the impression that it would be very difficult to bring my approach and blue-print for turning a profit to so many bettors who had not spent their lives betting on "steam"....

You see, because I had the opportunity to move "steam" for so many years before I had the confidence to handicapp and wager on my own plays...I was introduced to the way "wiseguys" or "sharps" had beaten the sports market for so long. During that time, I had to endure good and bad runs...and be willing to get down on so many more plays than any average sports bettor could ever imagine. I was shown the way a 55% run over 3 months, can bring in more profit than going 60% in that same span if the amount of wagers were different. I had to quickly learn proper money management because all of a sudden I was privy to the type of information and handicapped selections that I could have only dreamed of prior...which meant that there were so many times that I had to overcome the temptation of "not doing the right thing" over and over again to get the desired results in the end...

But, it became apparent to me, those final 3 months of 2007 that I was so wrong. And that today's sports bettors knew about steam, and understood how the "outfits" have done it for so many years...but they just didn't have access to all that information, or someone to help guide them along the way to use it properly, like I had when I was first introduced. And it was then that I realized that the only thing I needed was time...time to showcase my ability...time to help build bankrolls...time to show we have access to "steam"...time to show exactly how to beat this market...Because I knew that eventually, the Members here were sharp enough to know valuable info and more importantly, Winning info when they see it...

So we got through those first 3 months with me learning from you guys how I can better form my service to be more convenient and we went through the growing pains of "posting times" and "line changes"...and in those 3 months I was also able to show you how we "grind" out a Profit and how I don't need to hit 65%, or even 60% to make a great living wagering on sports. We ended up having a very good few months of Football and also the early stages of NBA and NCAABB...and when the 3 months were up, and 2007 over...we found ourselves up a lot of units and ready for the New Year...

When JAN 1ST got here, I was so anxious to get going because I knew that I was now on the verge of beging an ENTIRE YEAR here at Pregame. And until then, I knew that bettors would be skeptical, some even consider me just lucky, and others convinced I was full of shit and would eventually lose like almost every other "tout"....But there were also a good portion of bettors who decided that for $10 a day, it was at least worth a shot to see what kind of info I was going to pass along...winning or losing ???

We got through that first month with an excellent profit and things couldn't have been better...and then February became challenging...and that may very well be the understatement of the year...because if I am not mistaken, we ended up losing January's Profit's back to the books. Fortunately though, we still had our starting bankrolls for the year and although there were many doubts...I was so pleasantly surprised to see that most of the same guys who lost in Feb, were going to give me another shot in March...

And that is where the DAMAGE really began...we went on a great tear of NCAABB and it continued through April when MLB was here and the NBA in full swing. We went ahead and crushed the books again...so now after 4 months in the bag...we found ourselves Winners in 3 of them and a nice size Profit so far...

Finally, we got through May and had another Winning Month...making it 3 STRAIGHT and 4 of 5 for 2008. Then June got here and it was a tough month. After going back and forth for the first 2 weeks, we spent the next 2 getting right to where we were about to turn a profit...and then had a bad night that set us back again. And we were on our way to ending the Streak at 3...but we fought through it and I will tell you that it may very well be the month that I am most proud of. The reasons for this is because even though we struggled, we managed to stay in control and minimize any damage, while optimizing any profits...and when it was all said and done, we ended up a little above even. Now although it was not a profitable month, it also wasn't a losing month and that is what is most important. The key to this business is the same as any other...minimize expenses and limit liability...and we were able to do both...And because of it, we still find ourselves way ahead for 2008 and ready for the 2nd half of the year when we expect to do even better...

So we have now had "4 STRAIGHT WINNING MONTHS" and "5 of 6" for 2008....and we began 2008 with a BankRoll of $10,000 to work with as an example for my clients to follow along and base their own bankroll to...and we NEVER had our original bankroll at risk because even with the one losing month, we only gave back the month before's profits...And we are now beginning the 2nd half of 2008 and we have made an excellent return on our investment...in fact, most company's would consider this kind of return, for a FULL YEAR unheard of...and although this business will humble you quicker than most...I will say that I am proud of the work we have been able to do...The numbers don't lie and and in a market this difficult, i want all my clients to be proud of the fact that they are one of a very few bettors who can actually say they have been able to profit amd beat it....

Below is our Account Balance for June and 2008...I look forward to another fun and profitable 6 months ahead...It is a pleasure to work with you guys...and I especially want to thank Dave 76 for being willing to keep an accurate account of every bet I pass along, so that I can compare it to my own figures and assure you guys that they are as accurate as we can get them...

ALL-ACCESS (JUNE) = +$37....(+.37 Units)

HEAVY HITTERS (JUNE) = -$1,910....(-19.10 Units)

ENDING BALANCE : JAN 1st 2008 - JUNE 30th 2008 = (BASED on $100 Per Unit)

ALL-ACCESS (2008) = +$8,740 PROFIT....(+87.40 Units)

HEAVY HITTERS (2008) = +$10,067 PROFIT....(+100.67 Units)

Once again, I would really like to Thank you all for your support and for allowing me the opportunity to share my work with you. Your confidence in me is overwhelming and I consider it a huge privilage, which is why I will continue to work as hard and harder than I have in the past....as well as continue to aquire as many valuable sources as possible to try and improve our results. We have only 2 months until we are really busy with the football season and I really think that the opportunity to pile up some units and be ready for it is in front of us in the form of MLB, WNBA, ect....When the fall gets here, I will be making a blog post to update my guys on the blue-print and plan of action for the football season because posting and times will obviously differ.

But first, we have some business to take care of, especially right after the All-Star Break when MLB becomes even more profitable than it has been...during that time, we will concentrate on grinding out all the profit we can in MLB...and also make sure we look to things like the WNBA for even more. I look forward to these next 2 months, and then we will prepare for the final run for 2008...and see where we stand when all the dust settles. I truely feel that we are on our way to another very profitable year for betting on sports...Thanks and Best of Luck, Vegas-Runner...

The Dilemma of Doing This for Real...

2008-06-30T17:51:00Z

Saturday night, I was faced with that very dilemma, and I believe that all professional sports handicappers who share their work with others have been forced to deal with the very same thing. First let me say that one of the main reasons that I decided Pregame was definately the site that I would take on this venture is the fact that I knew the cappers on here actually do bet their plays and I would go as far as saying that the majority depend on those plays, just like I do...to actually provide a profit as a means to make a living. That was extremely important to me because my initial thought for becoming a Pro-Capper was to simply pass along the exact same bets that I am making which have provided me a very good living, and in the process, try to explain through examples and posts just like this one...the way that the average bettor can implement my information and approach into their own business and be able to turn a profit also.

At first, my worry was that the average sports bettor had been so pre-programmed to certain mis-conceptions that attempting to ask them to begin betting exactly like the "wiseguys" do would be a very difficult task. But eventually, I realized that today's sports bettors are just so much sharper than they were years ago and their ability to comprehend what winning information actually was made me excited because I knew I could bring that to them. And as the first few months went by, I really began to learn so much about this business and the best way I can mold it to help bettors profit more. Along the way, I explained what our goal was and the way we were going to reach it and I knew that if I can continue stressing that money management is the only thing that can stop you from profiting with this information.

So what I decided to do to start the new year, was to really put the focus on wagering correctly since I knew that we would provide more winners than losers...which ultimately should be enough to provide a profit for the consumer. And that meant that each day when I formed and confirmed my card, I would also make sure that I considered the amount of units I am asking us to put into play...and base that on our balance for the week, month, and year. And to do that, I also wanted to make sure that I post a balance update almost daily which would show exactly what following this blue-print could provide.

That to me became the most important aspect for a pro-capper...until that time, I also was pre-programmed to think that this industry is only about records. And I felt that since I was a professional sports bettor, first and foremost...then what needs to be most important to my consumers is my overall profit/loss...and not neccessarily my record. Although we are forced to post and market our current successes as pro-cappers in the form of records...for example 7-1 L/8 100*s...or 5-0 on Tuesday's...I have tried to instead get my "Bottom Line" to the consumer...and there lies the dilemma.

What many bettors fail to understand is that what should be the most important factor in determining winning information...is not the record of the capper, but instead their Overall Results of Units won/loss...and NOTHING ELSE...now I know from being in this business that it may not be the best way to get sales...and that is because bettors are hoping for something that doesn't exist...a LOCK..but when they see something that reads 10-0...well, that is enough to toss reason out the window at times...when the real response needs to be.."What about before those 10 plays"...Because I hope like myself, many of you are also doing this "FOR REAL".

The dilemma I am speaking about comes up daily when you do this for real...the reason for that is because you can't simply chalk up a loss as nothing more than a small adjustment of a record...instead, a loss is "REAL MONEY" and as a responsible pro-capper, who has an obligation to their clients...it needs to be accounted for a such. It becomes very easy to make a -220 a 10* Selection, since if it loses...a 6-2 record on 10*s, simply becomes 6-3...still extremely marketable the next time around...

But when you actually bet on your plays...and are basing success and failure on REAL Profit or Loss...then it isn't as simple to make a -220 a 10* Release...And that is the dilemma I faced on Saturday....I had done my capping and saw Detroit was -160...and the work I did on that game, along with the confirmations that I was able to get...made Detroit the strongest MLB play that I had seen in IL action this year...but since I post late, when the time came to Upload the play, the line had moved to -175 and at that number...I was hesitant to lay 5units on it. The main reason was because of our account balance for June, which didn't justify making that kind of wager. So my dilemma was...do I simply switch plays and make the Brewers my 5* and Detroit my 3* instead. But then I would be bullshitting my clients and giving them confidence that I didn't even have...and that is just something that I can't do to my guys. So, that left me with either decreasing the units or canceling the 5* completely...or not applying the money managment that I urge my clients to always do. Finally, I went back in and dug some more and came to the conclusion that we would not lose any value and actually gain, if I was willing to make it a RL bet...but as many know...Jones blew his "1st" Save of 2008, with a 3run lead and 1out in the 9th...and Detroit went on to win by only "1" run...

Now the reason we lost that bet sadly enough, is because I tried to do right by my clients. Its strange when you put it that way, but that is the exact reason why I didn't send it out as a ML bet. And sure, it would have won and everyone would have been happy...but a huge diservice would have been done also. I have always believed that if you are willing to ask people to pay for information that you claim is valuable...well then you need to prove that value first. And the only way to do that is to show an actual account balance for the information that was released.

This is a dilemma that I will have to deal with again in the future...and each time, I am learning more and more ways that I can try and make it a positive instead. But I am also aware that because I do this for REAL...these are decisions that need to be made and my ability to do so will untimately decide success and failure. Sure it would be much less stressful for me if I didn't keep an account balance...and many of the decisions that I make between now and Dec 31st may well be different because of it. But if I did that, then how can I say with certainty that my information is valuable...and how can I expect others to be willing to follow me, if I wasn't willing to show them my actual results...and not just the pretty ones which make me look good.

You see, I wouldn't trade doing it this way for anything...and although I know for fact that sales would be much higher otherwise, I also know that by doing it for "Real", that I will end up with the type of clients who understand the game and know that there will be tough times and good times along the way...but they also know that the numbers they are looking at are "Real" and they can know for certain whether or not following it has provided a profit. I have seen more and more clients come in and give me props for doing this. They seem to really appreciate the fact that I am willing to show my wins and losses...and what following along, with the exact blue-print will have produced in terms of profit/loss. I am so thankful that more and more people who are new to betting have grown up in a generation that prefers to hear the truth, rather than what they wish. And its also nice to see guys who have been in this racket for even longer than I have are begining to demand more from those selling info.

The only thing that I ask, is that you try and understand that the person who is passing along this information, and is also betting on it for "Real" has a huge responsibility because by being willing to show the actual results...there is a lot of pressure to perform and just knowing that your success and failure as a pro-capper will be based almost entirely on those results is a lot to have to deal with. But in the end, it is also our responsibility...because if we claim to have winning info...then you deserve to know how much we won. And when we look at that question...the only answer you should be concerned about...is the Dollar Amount, because a record don't say much.

In closing, I would just like to thank all of the guys who have come into my posts and have let me know how much they appreciate the fact that I do post actual dollar results for them. I also want to let you know that as we go forward, just like you continue to learn from me, I also am learning how to better assist you in managing your money, based on my info. With more and more bettors demanding results be mandatory, I believe that more and more cappers will be forced to also show they can "Do this for Real" and actually make money...before they have the nerve to ask for yours...best of luck, VR.

PART II : HANDICAPPING ERRORS to AVOID

2008-06-25T18:11:00Z

Well I was really hoping to get more feedback from you guys on my last blog so that I would be able to really zero in on those factors which I believe are holding some really good cappers back from being great cappers...but I understand that summer is upon us and people are doing a lot more outdoor activities, so I will try to go over some of the things that I think are important for all handicappers to consider...

For starters, I truely feel that too many bettors are willing to wager without putting in the actual time that it requires to beat the number. What needs to be understood, is the fact that if you are actually trying to wager on sports as an investment, rather than for entertainment....it is going to require a lot of dedication and hard work. The reason for this is simple...you are attempting to beat a price that has been set by a group of men whose only responsibility is to set a price which will entice bettors to take the worst of it, while attemtping to increase the advantage their clients (books) have over the bettors. Now if you are doing this as a form of entertainment..then this doesn't apply because entertainment costs money and therefore you should expect to get billed...

Next, I have seen way too many bettors look at the board and even without having created their own number to compare, which I will get to a little later...go ahead and make their mind up right there and then about a bet. Now there is nothing wrong with instinct, and I believe that as you gain experience and really understand the inner workings of this market, you will become much better at locating certain situations which immediately scream "winner"...but what I am refering to is that too many cappers, after making that assumption...then go on to locate information or data that supports that decision...and there is no bigger mistake than that, because as human beings we tend to be extremely biased towards our own opinions, which is understandable...but as a handicapper, that really does you no good because its like a trend...if you really want to find one that supports your selection, it won't be too difficult to find...

Instead, I think that the approach should be this...you see a game that you feel is a good pick...but now, rather than try and locate a bunch of data which simply supports those feelings...instead, try and reason on a different level...try and figure out exactly why you think its a good pick...if its the price, then explain to yourself why the price is being offered...could it be a mistake, or could there be something that I do not know which is behind it...does public perception play a huge factor in this particular game (if its a MNF or ESPN game...the answer is always YES)...then when you break down the match-up try and justify taking the other team and really test yourself to see if you can make a case for them because as time passes and you get better and better at doing this...you will begin to see just how strong you play really is...and that then helps you rate your bets better...meaning that you become more efficient at choosing the unit size of your bets...which is something I will discuss when I write about money management...because it plays a major role...

Next, I know how difficult it is to know for sure if a game is being "steamed" if you aren't moving it yourself or have access to those who do...and the reason for this is obvious...many times there are different reasons why a number will move a few points even, which has nothing to do with "sharp" money taking a stand. What many fail to realize is, this is actually the "game"...meaning who is quicker to the move, and since I have had the privilage of playing that game, I know first hand that many times the books will beat the "sharps" to an adjustment which takes the value out of the play and therefore isn't "steam" at all...but I find too many people following it and assuming they are with the "smart money"...And then, you always need to be conscious of what the betting public is doing...and not because you want to be fading them or following them, but more importantly, because you want to be able to interpret how the market is reacting to action. And ask yourself...are they afraid of being heavy on one side ?? Why or why not...may help you form a more complete picture of what the oddsmaker is thinking...

And although our jobs is to be able to beat the oddsmakers price...we as cappers must respect the fact that these guys have access to a lot of information and their only obligation is knowing as much as possible about everything that has to do with the teams involved. And that brings me to the next thing that I have always found strange. I hear so many people say, "I would never pay for a pick"...and that is the most foolish attitude to have in this game if you intend on beating it. And I am not saying this because I am someone who now sells his information...Instead, I say this because I have worked under the most successful and respected sports bettors ever...and every single one of them paid for info and made sure that I understood that I was to try and locate winning info wherever possible and when I do...snatch it up as my own.

The reason for that is simple...Information is your weapon and the more weapons you have...the better chance you have of winning the war. The key is being able to locate, purchase, and to use it correctly. But more importantly, your success will hinder on your ability to locate "Winning Information"...and that is where the difficulty is. There is just too much worthless information available out there and securing profitable info becomes extremely difficult. But I will be the first to tell you that there has not been a day in my career as a sports bettor that I have not paid for information....NOT ONE...and my goal is always to try and locate even more of it so that I can be even more "armed" when I try to choose the right sides.

Now there are a lot more factors that I would like to go over which I feel are extremely important, and even possibly some further detail to possibly help you get started in moving in the right direction to becoming a more efficient and successful handicapper. And as we move forward, I would love to try and go over many of them and the best way for me to do that is to simply reply to your comments and questions. Like I have said before, I am accessable to you but you need to help me, help you...meaning, I was able to learn so much more than many of the other runners who I still see..and most of those guys are still looking for sharps to move money for because they didn't try to learn why they were making those bets. They didn't take the time to ask the kind of questions that would make them less dependent on others, so when they did try to go off on their own and bet for themselves...it didn't work out for them. So please, if there is something that is on your mind, or a question that you wished could be answered...do not be shy or timid...go ahead and ask it because that is how questions become answers. I want to thank you all for your support once again, and Best of Luck, VR...

PART I : HOW DO YOU HANDICAP SPORTS ??

2008-06-23T19:44:00Z

With the anticipation of the upcoming football season, I thought that I would create a few blog posts which would help me try and pass along some factors which will make you a much more successful sports bettor. I feel that the best way for me to do that is to first find out what the majority of sports bettors are actually doing. So I want to put together a series of blog posts which pose some questions on handicapping and money management...and based on the various answers from you guys, I can then see where I can be the most help.

I believe that this will allow me to pass along so much of what I have been taught, as well as many of the experiences in the hope that they can stop many of you from making those same mistakes, and even better, help point you in the right direction so that you are able to have success much sooner than I was. Because believe me, I have been in this racket my entire life and in every possible capacity imaginable...and I have worked with and seen the guys who have proven that wagering on sports is the one "gamble" that the casino's only have the edge you are willing to give up. Meaning that since as a bettor, you have the ability to handicapp...that ability can actually tilt the scales to your favor.

Unlike other parts of a casino, the sportsbook is not guaranteed to turn a profit based on probability. And although they do have a 4.5% edge because of the vig they charge...the lack of a sharp line and a lot of work, can easily erase it...so to start it off, I would like to know..."How Do You Handicapp Sports"...

For myself, I didn't realize how little I actually knew until I came out here to Vegas and actually saw how "sharps" capp games...and even though I came here because I had access to winning information, I was not the one who was able to determine the winners. Instead, I had the privilage of moving "steam" for those who did. But my fascination and passion for this racket made me want to learn everything that they did...and it also made me want to take the same steps with those selections that they did, which assured their success...and that need to know gave me the courage to ask 1,000s of questions along the way which I believe to this day...formed the foundation for everything I have been able to do...

What I am interested in knowing is...

1.) How much time do you put in before being willing to make a bet...

2.) Do you create your own lines to compare to what is being offered...

3.) If you do, is it based on your opinion....or do you base it on your power-ratings...

4.) What factors do you create your ratings with and how do you adjust...

5.) Do you care what the public is on...if so, how do you know...

6.) Do you care what is being "steamed"...if so, how do you determine that...

7.) Do you go over your bets after they Win & Lose...

8.) Do you consider each game an independent random event...

9.) Do you ever simply follow your gut or look at a match-up and immediately make a decision...

10.) Do you watch the games...if so, do you ever write down any notes...

11.) Is there a particular system/trend that you have tried to figure out and follow...

12.) Do you pay for information...paid cappers, inter-net sites, ect...

13.) Are you willing to bet a game without going through your handicapping ritual completely...

14.) Are your picks based more on stats or situations...(example : "they can't get swept")

15.) Do you have an opinion...and then try to find supporting data...

Now it may seem like a lot, and it may also seem like there is a lot more that I could be asking...but your cooperation and participation will really go a long way in helping me write a blog post that will help you tremendously...all I ask is that you be truthful or else it becomes meaningless and nothing will be gained...I am not interested in what you consider doing, instead I really want to know exactly what you do for some of these questions...

Like I said before, I am not the sharpest guy out there and I surely wasn't born knowing anything about what I do now...but I have been in this game very, very deep...and I have played it at the most serious levels imaginable, which has allowed me to see what those men who move the lines do to try and pick winners...many of those things, I am aware that the average bettor just can't do, either because they don't have the finances or the means...but there is so much that you can do and I truely would love to help you do it...unlike many paid cappers out there, my situation is a little different because I have used my handicapping to bet real money as a means to make a living for a very long time...and my intentions when learning to be a winning capper were actually never so that I can share my work with people , via a service..but instead so that I am not dependent on others to invest in this market...

In closing, I know that I may be asking for you to take some time and put in some work...but I promise you that it will surely be worth it. It is an excellent way for me to pass along a lot of what has helped me be able to beat this market for so long...and whether that is your intention, or if you would just like to have a better chance of winning when you do make a bet...I believe that my experience and knowledge can only help by forcing you to think at a different level, reason at a different level, and ultimately handicapp at a different level...Thanks again for all your support and cooperation...I will next do a blog asking "Money Management" questions and in the mean time...continue to check out responses to this blog so that I can begin forming a piece on "handicapping" for everyone to share...Best of Luck, Vegas-Runner...