I believe that I have corrected the problem on my end and I can get back to Blogging...there is just so much that I want to pass along to you guys that I don't know where to begin. And although I have used my Blog in the past to mostly try and pass along some knowledge and experiences to help you beat this market, today I want to touch on a topic that a book brought to my attention early this morning over the phone...
If you get a moment, take a look at the results in MLB since the teams resumed play after the All-Star Break...make sure you look closely because you just may miss something...and that something is a DOG. We are now heading into our 3rd day since the break and I am having trouble finding a DOG that won the game...Now I know that some of you will say that the REDS won last night as a Dog, but they were +105 and to me, I really don't consider that a DOG. I mean, anything less than +120 is the equivalent of taking a football team getting 1.5 on the ML in most cases...and although technically it is still a dog...I am talking about at least picking a 3pt DOG to win on the ML...lol
Even funnier is the fact that some of those DOGS that won, actually became the FAVS before game-time (PHILS) last night...And like the books I spoke to said...the "clear cut" Favorites ALL WON...and what he is refering to is any FAV -130 or higher because as I remember it when I was a runner...anything less and we didn't really call it a Dog...it was more or less a pick'em...especially since the majority of shops were not using a "dime line" at the time...
Will this trend continue...I am not sure, but I will tell you that a lot of bettors who would look forward to the MLB Season thinking they can make a profit without even hitting 50% are having a tough time staying above water. In fact, truth be told, most are getting killed and although they continue to use what has worked in the past....as a few sharps I spoke with said, those type of bettors are now in a position where they have to hit at a much higher % on their DOG plays than ever before, to try and get even before the season ends...
This takes me back to something I discussed at the very start of the season. Value is Value only when it Wins...and as a professional sports bettor, the main objective needs to be Profit and not neccessarily the road taken to get there. I said from the 1st Day of MLB that I have seen just as much Value in a -200 that I have in a +150 because Value is determined by the price being offered, compared to the actual worth...and a losing Bet isn't worth very much...I have been fortunate to have been in this game as it has evolved numerous times. From when sharps had info before the oddsmakers as well as better technology, to when the off-shore market changed the way books do business, to now, what I like to call the info era...a time when info is so available that the problem becomes...bettors just aren't experienced in knowing just what info actually helps determine an outcome...
Regardless...to be able to beat this market consistantly...we as handicappers have to be willing to accept how the market is changing and even though we need to stick to our guns and use those things that have proven to show a profit over time...we also always have to be aware of the present. I am really interested to see the results when the weekend has concluded and these series have come to an end...because so far, from what I see...the 2nd half seems to be starting off exactly the way the 1st half did...
Best of Luck, Vegas-Runner...Please let me know in my Forum Thread or Here about any topics you may want to see addressed.