With the anticipation of the upcoming football season, I thought that I would create a few blog posts which would help me try and pass along some factors which will make you a much more successful sports bettor. I feel that the best way for me to do that is to first find out what the majority of sports bettors are actually doing. So I want to put together a series of blog posts which pose some questions on handicapping and money management...and based on the various answers from you guys, I can then see where I can be the most help.
I believe that this will allow me to pass along so much of what I have been taught, as well as many of the experiences in the hope that they can stop many of you from making those same mistakes, and even better, help point you in the right direction so that you are able to have success much sooner than I was. Because believe me, I have been in this racket my entire life and in every possible capacity imaginable...and I have worked with and seen the guys who have proven that wagering on sports is the one "gamble" that the casino's only have the edge you are willing to give up. Meaning that since as a bettor, you have the ability to handicapp...that ability can actually tilt the scales to your favor.
Unlike other parts of a casino, the sportsbook is not guaranteed to turn a profit based on probability. And although they do have a 4.5% edge because of the vig they charge...the lack of a sharp line and a lot of work, can easily erase it...so to start it off, I would like to know..."How Do You Handicapp Sports"...
For myself, I didn't realize how little I actually knew until I came out here to Vegas and actually saw how "sharps" capp games...and even though I came here because I had access to winning information, I was not the one who was able to determine the winners. Instead, I had the privilage of moving "steam" for those who did. But my fascination and passion for this racket made me want to learn everything that they did...and it also made me want to take the same steps with those selections that they did, which assured their success...and that need to know gave me the courage to ask 1,000s of questions along the way which I believe to this day...formed the foundation for everything I have been able to do...
What I am interested in knowing is...
1.) How much time do you put in before being willing to make a bet...
2.) Do you create your own lines to compare to what is being offered...
3.) If you do, is it based on your opinion....or do you base it on your power-ratings...
4.) What factors do you create your ratings with and how do you adjust...
5.) Do you care what the public is on...if so, how do you know...
6.) Do you care what is being "steamed"...if so, how do you determine that...
7.) Do you go over your bets after they Win & Lose...
8.) Do you consider each game an independent random event...
9.) Do you ever simply follow your gut or look at a match-up and immediately make a decision...
10.) Do you watch the games...if so, do you ever write down any notes...
11.) Is there a particular system/trend that you have tried to figure out and follow...
12.) Do you pay for information...paid cappers, inter-net sites, ect...
13.) Are you willing to bet a game without going through your handicapping ritual completely...
14.) Are your picks based more on stats or situations...(example : "they can't get swept")
15.) Do you have an opinion...and then try to find supporting data...
Now it may seem like a lot, and it may also seem like there is a lot more that I could be asking...but your cooperation and participation will really go a long way in helping me write a blog post that will help you tremendously...all I ask is that you be truthful or else it becomes meaningless and nothing will be gained...I am not interested in what you consider doing, instead I really want to know exactly what you do for some of these questions...
Like I said before, I am not the sharpest guy out there and I surely wasn't born knowing anything about what I do now...but I have been in this game very, very deep...and I have played it at the most serious levels imaginable, which has allowed me to see what those men who move the lines do to try and pick winners...many of those things, I am aware that the average bettor just can't do, either because they don't have the finances or the means...but there is so much that you can do and I truely would love to help you do it...unlike many paid cappers out there, my situation is a little different because I have used my handicapping to bet real money as a means to make a living for a very long time...and my intentions when learning to be a winning capper were actually never so that I can share my work with people , via a service..but instead so that I am not dependent on others to invest in this market...
In closing, I know that I may be asking for you to take some time and put in some work...but I promise you that it will surely be worth it. It is an excellent way for me to pass along a lot of what has helped me be able to beat this market for so long...and whether that is your intention, or if you would just like to have a better chance of winning when you do make a bet...I believe that my experience and knowledge can only help by forcing you to think at a different level, reason at a different level, and ultimately handicapp at a different level...Thanks again for all your support and cooperation...I will next do a blog asking "Money Management" questions and in the mean time...continue to check out responses to this blog so that I can begin forming a piece on "handicapping" for everyone to share...Best of Luck, Vegas-Runner...