We have covered some of the options that are available to sports bettors for MLB...those included "Run-Line" and "5th Inn" wagers. Today, I want to cover a topic that I feel is extremely important, and being conscious of these factors which we will discuss, will definately play a vital role in the overall success when wagering on MLB. I know that when it comes to football, even your most recreational bettors have learned that the numbers 3 & 7 are "key" numbers, and if looking to bet a total...the numbers 37 & 41 are "key". And although there are different schools of thought when it comes to basketball's "key" numbers...I have always tried to make myself aware, when the line is 5 or 6....
The reason that we refer to the numbers stated above as "key", is because of the fact that those are the numbers that games tend to fall on more than any other. So that means that more NFL games will end with the final score being determined by 3 points, and that is the exact same reason that I choose to be conscious of 5 & 6 in basketball....because more games will end with one team winning by those number of points, than any other. As a bettor, we will be able to gain an edge over the books whenever we can get +3.5, rather than +3, or by going Over 40.5, instead of 41...
Well, during my years as a runner, I was also made aware that when I was going to place certain bets...there are certain numbers that I also need to be aware of, and attempt to get on the best side of them whenever possible. Since MLB is a sport which is bet on the ML, rather than with a "handicapp"/points...the key numbers that I was informed about were soley on "Totals"...meaning that whenever we wagered on an MLB "total", and the number we were searching for was one of the "key" numbers...I made sure to search as much as I can to try and get the best of it...knowing that doing so will definately turn a lot of possible "pushes" into wins, and a lot of losses, into "pushes"....
And as a runner, I had to learn the hard way many times, just how vital it actually becomes to not take the worst of it when the "steam" is on one of these numbers. Because as I said in prior blog posts, my responsibilities included getting down all that I can for the "outfits" I was employed by, before I was allowed to make that same bet for myself...and strangley enough, I had met so many other runners who were moving "steam" also, that never really tried to comprehend this important factor and somehow always wondered why when the year was over, they found themselves making a far less profit than they could have and believe it or not...I am convinced that if they had just chosen to skip those wagers where they couldn't get the best of the "key" number, they would have ended up with a much more prosperous year of wagering...
The reason that I believe most didn't try and figure out what being on the best side of a "key" number actually meant, was because they were to lazy to put the work it involved into it. That may sound like I am criticizing them, but I am simply stating a fact...and what I mean by this is that it does require some work from the handicapper to try and figure out whether or not betting "Over" 8.5 (-140) should produce better or worse profit over time, than wagering "Over" 9 (-110)...*you will find that betting OVER 8.5 (-140) isn't more profitable than betting OVER 9 (-110)*..and as a serious handicapper and sports bettor, it becomes another task that has to be re-worked throughout the season, because these percentages will differ from year to year, as well as from month to month...because as today's handicappers have more access to information, what seperates the levels of success for each is definately how much work each is actually willing to do...considering of course, they actually know what work will help produce the most profit based on its influcence on the outcome of a sporting event...
Now that we know how important knowing these "key" numbers are, as well as many of the reasons why...we will move ahead to what those numbers actually are, and the price that bettors should be willing to pay to get on the "right side" of the "key" number...The most important numbers when betting MLB Totals is "7" & "9" , because more MLB games will end on these numbers more than any other :
7 = 10.6%.....9 = 10.6%
The reasons for this are pretty obvious...because when games are tied 3-3 or 4-4, more times than not, a single run will end the game...
After 7 and 9, the next most important numbers become "5 & 11" :
5 = 8.1%.....11 = 8.6%
So just being aware of those 4 numbers will cover almost 40% of ALL MLB games...
What this actually means is that 54.9% of ALL MLB games will end up with 9 or more runs scored....while 55.7% will end up with 9 or less runs scored...so you can see just how vital it becomes to get on the right side of the number 9...so now, as handicappers we are aware of what these "key" numbers are...but that alone is not enough, because as sports bettors, we need to be aware of what price we should be willing to lay, in order to try and get on the right side of these numbers...and since "9" is by far the most important, and ultimately the one we most see offered, I will use it to further explain exactly what I mean...and will do so, by explaining why I stated above that betting Over 8.5 (-140) will not produce more profit, than going Over 9 (-110)...
If you were to bet Over 9 runs...you will WIN 44.5% of your bets...you will LOSE 44.5% of your bets...and you will PUSH 11% of your bets...so its not rocket science to realize that since there is a 50% chance of winning and losing, the vig on the line of 9, should be -110 either way...
If instead of betting Over 9 runs, you were to bet Over 8.5...you will WIN 55.5% of your bets....and you will LOSE 44.5% of your bets...so based on those percentages, the "True" odds on going Over 8.5, instead of 9 is -135...that is what the "true" vig should actually be...and the reason for this is because going OVER 9 (-110) is EQUAL to going OVER 8.5 (-135)...
It becomes very obvious why it is so important for a sports bettor to be aware of these numbers...and like I said above...the ability of the handicapper to implement these findings into the way they form their bets, will ultimately play a vital role on their success...and now that I broke down the number 9...I will list below the probabilities of some of the other numbers/totals so you are also able to figure out what price you should be willing to lay, in order to get on the "right" side of a particular total...(please keep in mind that this is an overall account of the past 5 seasons, and your accuracy in breaking it down into year/month will further improve your chance of getting "The Best of It")...
3 = 5.2%....4 = 4.0%....6 = 6.5%
8 = 7.6%....10 = 6.2%....12 = 5.3%....13 = 6.3%
These, along with the numbers covered earlier, go to cover a little over 80% of ALL MLB Games...I was fortunate like I have said 1,000s of times...that I got an opportunity to not only bet for, but more importantly, ask questions and work with guys whose ability to not only comprehend, but also implement into their daily wagering in the sports market...and over all those years, I was able to see first hand all of the posters hanging on the office walls with these type of stats, which surrounded the guys who were responsible for finding the "steam"...which ultimately went a long way towards making me realize the type of commitment it really took to win, betting on sports...and I promise you, that if you are willing to put that work in, and go beyond what the average bettor is willing to put in, including the oddsmakers...there will be no sport/number/book that you won't be able to beat over time...but like anything else in life...success will only come to those willing to work the hardest because you would be surprised at the amount of bettors willing to wager obscene amounts of money, after simply looking at the match-up for a limited amount of time...like while reading the paper or looking on the internet for a quick summary break-down of the game....when deep inside, we are all aware of just how much more it actually takes....best of luck, Vegas-Runner...
I was interested to know, how many of you really take into account what the number is...meaning that if you like the Over in a game...will you try and see if there actually is value in going Over 7.5 (-130) or if you would prefer to keep shopping to find Over 8 (+105) ??...or do you really look at those factors more with football since that is the sport which originally taught us all that there are "Key" Numbers...