First off, I really want to say that I am just so glad that we went ahead and laid -155 prior to the series on the Red Wings as a Best Bet because they have really shown so far in the Stanley Cup Finals that they are the best team in the NHL this year...and more imortantly for bettors, that -155 was an absolute gift.
Coming in, I just really felt that public perception was the main reason for the low price the oddsmakers threw out there because they were well aware that the betting public was going to back the Penguins as a dog...so there was no need to give them any value. In fact, the Penguins were billed as the future, and the only question left to answer was whether or not their time had come. Well truth is, as I began to break this series up, I truely felt that it was a huge mis-match and that the Redwings were just such a more dominant team who had also found their #1 goalie during the Nashville series when it was tied up and have since showed why they had the best record this year in the NHL.
So now we find ourselves awaiting Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals, with the Redwings holding a commanding 3-1 lead and with the opportunity to end it this evening. Unfortunately for myself and those who wager with me, we find ourselves having to sit this one out because we get to cash with a Redwings win, and with the price offered as high as it is...it just don't make financial sense to take them again tonight, even though I do believe, like the oddsmakers that it ends in Detroit later this evening.
I say that because it is obvious to me that the oddsmakers really just want to collect all that series money wagered on the Pens and call it a year, which is why they have set the odds against a Game 6 so high. I mean, we are talking about a team who was expected to have a legit shot at winning this entire thing, and now, facing a critical elimination game...you can get them at +220 at some shops. The books do not want any money on Detroit tonight and I don't blame them, and even though we have 3 games to win our series bet...history is definately on the books, and our side that it ends tonight...
Here are the facts...teams who have taken the exact course that the Redwings have in this series...meaning they won the first 2 at home and then lost Gm3 on the road, but came back and won Gm4 there...well those teams have gone 39-2 (.951) in GAME 5 of the NHL Playoffs...so you can now see why the books are offering such a tempting price to back the Penguins tonight...but the truth is, when you look at those type of past results, one can easily argue that going ahead and laying the -280 is actually a gift, and I really couldn't argue with them because isn't that what Value actually is....
For myself and my clients...we will sit this one out and enjoy what should be another great game between these 2, and as much as I would have no problem taking the Redwings tonight...like I said, our series wager on them makes that uneccessary...but believe me, I still wanted to make sure I do the work and capp the game like normal and even though I feel I have a winner, I will pass...because we now have the comfort of knowing that even if the Pens defy probability and somehow win Game 5 Tonight...well then there will be another rare feat awaiting them...because the Series Record for Teams who have taken this exact road in the Finals is 22-1...and that is in all sports with a 7gm Final...
So enjoy tonight's Stanley Cup Finals Game 5...and know that although at -280, the Redwings seems to be out of most bettors price range...win or lose, I can honestly say after breaking this game down that there actually is more Value in laying the chalk, than taking the generous price on the dog since history shows it should end tonight...but then again, thats easy to say when we only had to lay -155 that it happens....best of luck, and hopefully I'm not able to write about the price on Game 6...VR