Tommy Rider

Who is Your Sleeper Team in CFB this Season?

Tommy Rider — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 13:54:00 GMT

Tyrell Fenroy and Louisiana Lafayette are one of Tommy Rider's sleeper teams in CFB this season.

As I finish up all my college football work for the upcoming season, I will be posting blog posts on my "bet on" and "bet against" teams soon. But today I was thinking of a team I really like as a sleeper. Now, I like Oklahoma State and North Carolina to be better than some but those teams aren't really sleepers in the true sense of the word. There are a lot of people who like NC to be much better this year and the lines on them in some of the Game of the Years posted back up that point.

I'm talking more about a team flying under the radar that even if they don't have a winning season, will be a moneymaker against the spread throughout the year. My sleeper team to keep an eye on this season is Louisiana Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns won two of their final three games in 2007 and have one of the nation's top ground games led by QB Michael Desormeaux and RB Tyrell Fenroy - who is one of the better unknown players in the country. Lou-Laf also returns four starters along the offensive line to clear the way for its explosive rushing attack.

Granted, the defense was Swiss cheese last year and may not be a whole lot better this season. However. the Ragin' Cajuns opened up as a 14-point underdog against Southern Miss in Week 1 and I think there is a lot of value in that line (Sorry Chuck). Plus, they play road games against Illinois and Kansas State, where they are sure to be huge underdogs. With their 45 returning lettermen and imposing ground game that can control the clock, I like Lou-Laf in the underdog role this year. I think the Ragin' Cajuns have a chance to do some damage in the Sun Belt Conference but more importantly, I believe they will do a lot damage against the pointspread.

Who are some teams you've found during your CFB research that you believe are flying under the radar and could be potential moneymakers this upcoming football season?

Rider's Early Big 10 Breakdown

Tommy Rider — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 21:11:00 GMT

Everyone in the Big 10 will once again be chasing Beanie Wells and OSU for the conference title.

After breaking down the SEC and Big 12, I now take a look at a conference that will be dominated by one team: The Big 10. Ohio State is clearly the cream of the crop in the Big 10 and a National Title contender once again. Here is my early breakdown of the Big 10, with power rankings in parentheses:

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (85) - Not surprisingly, the Buckeyes are my top rated team in the country heading into the season. I'm not saying they can beat an SEC team in the title game but on paper, they're loaded. Led by six players who could be selected in the first round of next year's NFL Draft, Ohio State scored an eight or higher in all but two categories. The offensive line and defense are among the best in CFB, while RB Beanie Wells is a strong Heisman candidate. And then there is freshman phenom, QB Terrelle Pryor, who will help make the Buckeyes offense less predictable than in years past. The schedule sets up nicely and if Ohio State gets by USC early in the year, they could run the table.

2. Penn State Nittany Lions (78) - Penn State isn't in the Buckeyes' class but this is a team I really like. First of all, they got rid of Anthony Morelli, who was one of the worst CFB quarterbacks of my lifetime. The Lions may be less experienced under center this year but they are going back to more of the spread offense they ran when Michael Robinson was in school. Besides quarterback, the rest of the team is strong. Penn State has an experienced offensive line, a deep stable of running backs and explosive receivers. The Lions three defensive positions earned a 23 out of a possible 30 and Penn State has great special teams. A tough schedule and question marks at quarterback are the Lions two biggest obstacles entering the season.

3. Wisconsin Badgers (74) - I think this year's Wisconsin team will be good but not great. However, I never underestimate the Badgers with Bret Bielema roaming the sidelines. In just two years at Wisky, Bielema has proven to be one of CFB's best coaches. As expected, the Wisconsin offense graded out high at running back and offensive line but low at quarterback. Their defense is also strong once again but special teams - usually a strength at Wisconsin - is unsettled this season. The schedule features a visit to Fresno State - a place no major conference team likes to play. Overall, this is a solid team that's pretty much a shoe-in for eight wins.

4. Michigan State Spartans (74) - I really like the direction Head Coach Mark Dantonio has the Spartans program headed. I gave them the same power ranking score as Wisconsin and I expect Michigan State to be even better in Dantonio's second season, despite replacing some key contributors from 2007. The Spartans ranked high at quarterback and running back thanks to the return of Brian Hoyer and Javon Ringer. Ringer is one of the top backs in the country and a darkhorse Heisman Trophy candidate. Michigan State has to replace big-time players at receiver and defensive end, while the secondary needs to show drastic improvement from a year ago. Overall, this is a team on the rise and I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish second in the conference if a couple of things break their way.

5. Illinois Fighting Illini (72) - After making the Rose Bowl last season, the Illini will likely take a minor step back in 2008. They are still a good team but the loss of RB Rashard Mendenhall early to the NFL Draft was a killer. I thought Mendenhall was one of the most important players in CFB last season and he'll be tough to replace. The Illini was fairly consistent in my scoring system, getting an eight in six of 10 categories. However, a tough schedule and major concerns at running back and on special teams hurt Illinois overall score. Also, I personally believe that backup quarterback Eddie McGee is better than Juice Williams, who I don't think will ever develop into a great passer.

6. Michigan Wolverines (71) - This was the toughest team for me to grade because they are making such a drastic switch in philosophy on the offensive side of the ball. The first thing that I want to mention about Michigan is they still have plenty of talent. I see some people talking about this team like they are Rice. While the offense is going to take some time adjusting to Rich Rodriguez's scheme, the defense is absolutely loaded. The Wolverines scored an eight in all three of my defensive categories and I expect them to have one of the best stop units in the Big 10 this season. Remember, the public is going to be fading Michigan big-time this year but in my opinion, they are going to be better than people think. My advice? Stay away from betting Michigan games early on in the season.

7. Purdue Boilermakers (65) - As you can see, there is a pretty big drop-off between Michigan Purdue, which means that's where I think we go from good teams to ones with a lot more question marks. Actually, the Boilermakers are the definition of average in my book. They graded out at a six in five of ten categories. QB Curtis Painter is a good one and he'll need to help Purdue outscore opponents because the Boilermakers defense is weak. Purdue is also deep at running back but none of that is going to matter if the offensive line doesn't get healthy in a hurry. This is a team that could win eight games and push for a New Year's Day bowl or win three games and fight with Minnesota for the Big 10 cellar. There are a lot of "ifs" when it comes to Purdue heading into 2008.

8. Iowa Hawkeyes (64) - I think either Purdue or Iowa will end up being better than my power ranking numbers suggest and if I had to pick one of those teams, I would go with the Hawkeyes. Why? Defense. Iowa should have a stout front seven led by one of the conference's top defensive lines. Mitch King and Matt Kroul are one of the top tackle tandems in CFB and will make the Hawkeyes extremely tough to run the football on. The offensive line looks solid but Iowa needs to find some more playmakers on offense. The defense will keep the Hawkeyes in games and if the offense can just be average, Iowa has a shot to make a minor bowl this season.

9. Northwestern Wildcats (62) - I like this Northwestern team but I think we are getting ahead of ourselves by making them a 12-point favorite in Week 1 against Syracuse. The Wildcats are an improving team but they still aren't good enough to be 12-point favorites over anyone. Northwestern should be a strong "over" team this season. They have a solid offense led by stud running back Tyrell Sutton and improving quarterback C.J. Bacher. The problem for Northwestern is its defense. The Wildcats defense scored a 17 out of a possible 30 in my rankings and they also field a terrible special teams unit. A lot of people like Northwestern to make a bowl game this year and while that's certainly possible, they'll need to score a lot of points to compensate for a weak defense if they want to go bowling.

10. Indiana Hoosiers (59) - Indiana got some good news when quarterback Kellen Lewis was cleared to play but he's going to have to win a lot of games on his own this season. The Hoosiers are average at receiver and weak at running back. The line is experienced but it underachieved last year. The defense isn't much better and overall, Indiana scored a six or lower in seven of my categories. Besides Lewis, Indiana has one of the nation's best special team units with placekicker Austin Starr and return man Marcus Thigpen. Unfortunately, there isn't much more to like about this team in 2008.

11. Minnesota Golden Gophers (50) - This was another team that was tough to rank because they are going to have so many new faces on the field in 2008. The Gophers return a lot of starters but after going just 1-11 last season, many of those players will become backups. The Gophers fielded one of the worst defenses in CFB history last season. This year, as many as seven freshmen and JC transfers could be starting on defense when the season kicks off. The offense was solid last year and should be even better this season now that quarterback Adam Weber has a year in Tim Brewster's spread offense. The offense will score some points but the defense has to improve significantly just to be average. And with so many new starters on the defensive side of the ball, Minnesota is one of my "stay away" teams early in the year.

Rider Ends Vegas Trip with Early CFB Bomb!

Tommy Rider — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 05:09:00 GMT

Tommy Rider left Vegas with $500 big ones on THE Ohio State to take out Wisconsin on Oct. 4.

My trip to Vegas is drawing to a close and I had a great time. I want to thank everyone at Pregame for showing me around and helping me out. I have to tell you something and this isn't a sales pitch: These are some of the nicest guys you will ever meet in the handicapping business. Matty and Marco are both just genuinely nice people and they have done everything in their power to help me out and make me feel at home. And then there is Vegas Runner. If there is a more entertaining human being on this planet, I haven't met them. Hopefully next year we can get a Pregame Convention together so more people can come out and meet these guys. It's one thing to talk to them on the forums but sitting down and listening to their stories in person is worth the price of admission. Also, be prepared to eat.

So on Wednesday Matty and I hit the Hilton and a couple of things came from that visit. First, I now know where I want to be buried. That sportsbook is amazing. Just a huge room filled with TV's and every line you can imagine. The second thing that happened is I placed my first big bet of the upcoming football season. Unfortunately for the Hilton, one of their lines on the early CFB Games of the Year was way off, so I risked divorce and jumped all over it. I had to put $500 on the game because it was a great opportunity to catch a soft line in my opinion.

Ohio State 4 over Wisconsin (October 4)
One of the things I'm going to do this year is pound the Buckeyes on the road in conference games. At the Horseshoe, the spreads are going to be huge but when the Buckeyes go on the road, you will be able to take advantage of those 10-point lines against inferior competition.

Now this line being four is a joke. Wisconsin will be good this year but they aren't in Ohio State's class. I'm sure the Buckeyes will get a battle from one Big 10 team this season but I don't expect it to be a highly touted battle in Madison where the Bucks are guaranteed to be focused. And if you are worried about OSU playing the Badgers in Madison, don't be. They are vastly superior to Wisconsin this year and the Buckeyes are one of the few schools to have success in Madison, winning three of the last four meetings there.

Plus, what do you think this line is going to be if Ohio State either beats USC or suffers a close loss to the Trojans? It isn't going to be four, I can tell you that much. I think if everything plays out close to how it should for these two teams early in the year, the Buckeyes will be a 7-10 point favorite on the road against Wisky. Especially if OSU handles the Trojans.

There is just too much value in this line to pass up. If the books want to make the Buckeyes only a four-point favorite over ANY Big 10 team, I will jump all over it. They can play the game on the moon for all I care. Ohio State is so much better than the rest of the conference that I'll pay out $550 if any of those teams can stay within a field goal of the Bucks. If you are coming out to Vegas, I strongly suggest going to the Hilton and getting down on THE Ohio State over Wisconsin, as long as the line is under a touchdown. See you all at the payout window!

Rider's First Official Las Vegas Wager

Tommy Rider — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 20:06:00 GMT

Well, I arrived in Las Vegas and I'm like a kid in a candy store. They have this thing here where you go in and all the odds are on a board and you bet anything you want. What a concept. I love this freaking place!

So, my trip got off to a bumpy start. As I was going through security at Logan Airport, a buzzer went off and a lady came up to me and said, "Sir, can you tell me why you have brass knuckles in your bag?" Then they pulled me aside and the police had to come. I'm pretty sure I'm now classified as a terrorist.

I had bought brass knuckles around 15 years ago when I was on vacation in South Carolina. A guy at work had never seen a pair and wanted to know what they looked like. So I brought mine into work to show him and forgot that I had put them back in my bag that I carry all of my shit in. Because they are so heavy, they must have fallen to the bottom of the bag and I never knew they were in there. So, after my wife stopped crying and they cleared me, we were off to Vegas.

I got into the Pregame offices around 10:30. I was here for about 20 minutes before Matty and Marco got hungry, so we headed out to lunch. We went to a place called Barley's Brew Pub where I got the best chef salad of my life. This thing was loaded with meat had barely any lettuce in it. All was right with the world.

Finally, I went to bet on the home run derby. Matty and I came to a consensus while he was shoveling a burger down his throat that Grady Sizemore had the best odds. So I walked up, threw $100 on Sizemore at 6-1 and they handed me a slip. It was that easy. I can't even imagine what is going to happen when I hit the Golden Nugget on Wednesday and I get a crack at those early college football lines. My wife asked me to at least control myself while we are out here. I told her I would. Luckily for her, she is used to me lying, so when I bet $500 on Ball State Wednesday, hopefully she won't be too surprised.

So tonight I got Grady Sizemore to win the Home Run Derby. To be honest with you, I just think he's on HGH and that's why I bet him. Good luck and I will talk to you later in the week when I'm sure I won't have a dime left to my name.

What Sport Do You Cap the Best?

Tommy Rider — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 19:49:00 GMT

CFB has been Rider's best sport since he won $100 when Major Harris almost upset Syracuse in the Carrier Dome as a freshman.

As football season nears, a lot of us are getting extremely excited. Football is not only by far the most popular sport in general, it's the most popular in the betting world as well. The NFL would never admit it publicly but they would die if gambling were ever outlawed in this country. That would be bad for business and the NFL is all about the bottom line.

But as much as we love football season, that is the toughest sport to bet in my opinion, particularly the NFL. Because it's played only once a week, NFL lines are usually right on the money. I have heard - and I don't know if it's true or not - that a large majority of professional gamblers make their biggest killing during college basketball season. Because there are so many teams and so many games, it just makes sense that there would be more chances to take advantage of a line that is off.

This got me to thinking. I know football is the sport of choice for most of us as far as being a fan, but what sport do you handicap the best? What sport do you usually make your biggest profit in? For me, it would be college football and college basketball. I don't know if it's because I like college sports more, because I have a better feel for game or maybe because it's easier to cap than pro sports. Either way, I make my most money in CFB and college hoops. I do well in the NFL too but I can go on runs in CFB that are insane. So, what is your sport of choice when it comes to handicapping?

Rider's Early Big 12 Breakdown

Tommy Rider — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 21:58:00 GMT

The Oklahoma Sooners Currently Sit Atop Tommy Rider's Power Rankings.

After making power ratings for the SEC, the next conference I tackled was the Big 12. From top to bottom, the Big 12 is loaded this year and could wind up producing more good teams than any other conference in 2008, even the mighty SEC. I grade teams on a scale from 1-10 in the following categories:

Coaching
Schedule
Quarterback
Running Back
Receiver/Tight End
Offensive Line
Defensive Line
Linebacker
Secondary
Special Teams

Power Rating Numbers in Parentheses

1. Oklahoma Sooners (83) - After breaking down the SEC and Big 12, the Sooners rate as my top overall the team in the country. The only teams standing in OU's way for my preseason top spot are Ohio State and USC, which I haven't assigned numbers to yet. The Sooners graded out at a nine or above in six of 10 categories, grabbing a 10 as my top rated offensive line in the country. This team is loaded. Sam Bradford is one of the nations best quarterbacks and the Sooners have tons of talent at RB, WR and LB, to along with a stellar defensive line. OU also has one of the best schedules in regards to making a National Title run. The only question marks OU has entering the season are at placekicker and cornerback.

2. Missouri Tigers (80) - The Tigers rank just below OU, Florida and Georgia right now in my power rankings. Missouri was very consistent in the rating system, getting an eight or higher in eight categories. That includes a rare 10 at quarterback, thanks to the presence of Chase Daniels. What a lot of people who don't follow the Tigers closely may not realize is that they have a strong defense to go along with their explosive offense. Missouri returns a ton of experience and really only needs to find a starting punter. Their schedule also sets up nicely for at least a 10-win season.

3. Texas Tech Red Raiders (78) - A lot of people like the Red Raiders heading into this season and there's a reason for that. This could end being one of the most prolific offenses ever fielded in college football when it's all said and done. With an experienced, talented offensive line, QB Graham Harrell and a dangerous receiving corps headed by stud Michael Crabtree, very few defenses are going to slow down the Red Raiders this season. The improvement comes from a defense that made strides last year and should be even better in 2008. If the defense pulls its weight, the schedule sets up for Tech to be a spoiler in the Big 12 South.

4. Texas Longhorns (76) - I actually thought the Longhorns would grade out higher than this but when I looked into this team closer, I found quite a few questions that need to be answered. Both lines should be strong but the secondary and receiving corps have major concerns heading into the year. Then there is Colt McCoy who is good when he's on but awful when he's not. He needs to be much more consistent for Texas to take the next step. The offensive line, a weakness in 2007, should be a strength this season. The schedule is much tougher than the top three teams in this conference.

5. Kansas Jayhawks (75) - The Jayhawks won't be as good as they were last season but they aren't about to fall off the face of the earth either. This is a solid football team that is strong at quarterback, receiver, defensive line and linebacker. The schedule is much tougher this season with road tests at South Florida and Oklahoma. There is also the neutral site battle with Missouri. Running back could actually be an upgrade this year with the addition of NJCAA Offensive Player of the Year Jocques Crawford. This is a solid all-around team that should be in the mix for a conference title all year long.

6. Oklahoma State Cowboys (74) - I'm probably higher on the Cowboys than most people but I think this is a team that's two years away from possibly competing for a National Title. I believe Zac Robinson is the best spread quarterback in the country behind Tim Tebow and he's going to be even better in his second year as a starter. Sophomore WR Dez Bryant and senior TE Brandon Pettigrew are both future first-round NFL draft picks and the offensive line has the potential to be one of the best in OSU history. While the Cowboys graded seven or higher in every offensive category, seven was the highest score they received on the defensive side of the ball. The secondary should be a strength but the front seven needs to improve drastically if the Cowboys want to contend with the big boys. The schedule sets up for OSU to start the season 5-0.

7. Colorado Buffaloes (66) - Normally when I break down the conferences, there will be a gap between two teams that signals the divide between strong teams and the rest of the bunch. In the Big 12, that divide is between Oklahoma State and Colorado. I like the direction the Buffs are headed and they are definitely a bowl team in 2008, but major question marks in a couple of areas, along with a brutal schedule, could hurt the Buffs progression. Colorado is solid in most areas, grading out at a seven or higher in six categories. However, concerns at receiver and cornerback need to be addressed. Not to mention a schedule that includes games with West Virginia, Florida State, Texas, Kansas, Missouri and Oklahoma State. Ouch.

8. Kansas State Wildcats (64) - The Wildcats grade out as my eighth and final bowl team from the Big 12. They are also my team in this conference that I think could surprise and be better than I have them rated right now, making them a strong "bet on" team for me early in the season. The thing Kansas State has that most other projected lower-level teams don't is QB Josh Freeman. A tremendous talent, Freeman looks ready for a breakout season. The offensive line, linebackers and secondary all graded out at a seven in my rating system. Two other things to like about the Wildcats is they have a favorable schedule and one of the best special teams units in the country.

9. Texas A&M Aggies (63) - The Aggies actually scored a little higher than I thought they would in my objective grading system but I still think they are a team that will struggle this season. Mike Sherman is installing a pro style passing attack but Stephen McGee isn't a great fit for that system. The Aggies received a rating of nine at running back and have a strong secondary and special teams. However, they received a five or lower for schedule, quarterback, receiver/tight end and defensive line. With a murderous schedule, a lot of things will need to go right for A&M to reach a bowl game.

10. Nebraska Cornhuskers (60) - A see a lot of people picking the Cornhuskers rather high this season and I'm not sure why. Bo Pelini may be a great defensive coach but that side of the ball needs a major overhaul after allowing 232 yards rushing per game in 2007. The offense should be solid. The Huskers received strong grades at quarterback, running back and offensive line. However, they must replace three of their top receivers and the defense is still a mess. In three defensive categories, the Huskers received a combined score of 14. That's not good. They must also navigate through a schedule that includes Virginia Tech, Missouri, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Kansas. It looks like the second straight season without a bowl berth for Husker Nation.

11. Iowa State Cyclones (57) - The Cyclones should be a much tougher team in Gene Chizik's second season. Iowa State isn't great in any one area but they have a solid offensive line to lead the way for a talented group of runners. If the running game can keep the defense off the field, the Cyclones have a chance to be successful. However, keeping the defense off the field is a must. The group is extremely weak in all three areas, as well as special teams. The schedule is as easy as they come for a lower level Big 12 team.

12. Baylor Bears (49) - This may be the worst team in any of the big conferences. The Bears hired Art Briles away from Houston to build up the program and he'll have a lot of work to do. Baylor is the only team I've done so far that didn't receive a rating of seven in any area. The Bears have my lowest rated offense up to this point and they don't get any help from a weak special teams unit. Bottom line: Baylor will be lucky to win two games this year and keep in mind they play Division I-AA Northwestern State.

The Top "Over" Team in College Football for 2008

Tommy Rider — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 01:32:00 GMT

Willie Tuitama and the Arizona Wildcats will be an "over" bettor's dream this season.

Do you like betting overs in college football? Do you enjoy sitting back and watching points being scored like a pinball machine? If you answered "yes" to both of those questions, than do I have the team for you. No team is set up better to cash more overs this season than the Arizona Wildcats.

Last year Sonny Dykes brought the Texas Tech-spread offense to Tucson. After a few early bumps in the road, the Wildcats were an offensive machine toward the end of the year. In winning three of their final four games, Arizona scored 48, 34 and 34 points respectively. They also topped forty points two other times last season. Now for the scary part: The Wildcats offense is going to be much better in 2008.

Early on last season, Dykes had to call mostly short passes because his system is so complicated, quarterback Willie Tuitama needed time to digest everything. As the season went on and Tuitama grew more comfortable directing the new offense, Dykes was able to open up his playbook. Now heading into Year 2, nothing is off limits. Dykes has already stated publicly that the Cats will throw downfield more often this season.

"It's like night and day where we are today compared to where we were last year," Dykes said this spring. "Last year at this time, these guys were still trying to get comfortable with the basic principles of the system. Now, it's like they have been running it their whole lives. Willie is a completely different player heading into this season. He's beaming with confidence and can't wait to get going. I think we will be much more of a quick-strike offense this year now that everyone is on the same page."

Well, if Tuitama is going to be better than he was last year, Pac 10 defenses are in a lot of trouble because he led the conference with 28 touchdowns passes and ranked second with 3,683 yards in 2007. Tuitama is going to have a chance to put up ridiculous numbers in Dykes' offense this year.

The thing I love about this offense is its continuity. Including, Tuitama, the Cats return 10 starters on the offensive side of the ball, so virtually every player on the field will be in their second year in Dykes' system. Arizona is loaded with quality receivers to team with Tuitama. Mike Thomas was the Pac 10's leading receiver a year ago, hauling in 83 passes and 11 touchdowns. Terrell Turner, Terrell Reese, Delashaun Dean, along with tight end Rob Gronkowski, gives Tuitama a plethora of dangerous weapons in the passing game.

The line, which improved as the year went on last season, returns four starters. Three of those players have started for at least two years, so this should be the best offensive line Bob Stoops has had since arriving at Arizona.

While there is very little doubt that the Wildcats will be an offensive machine this season, the defense has to be totally rebuilt after losing eight starters. The biggest shoes to fill are that of star corner Antoine Cason. I believe Cason was the best corner in college football the last two years and Arizona's defense sucked with him. Can you imagine how much worse it's going to be without an NFL-caliber shutdown corner taking away one side of the field? Also gone are linebacker Spencer Larson and defensive tackle Lionel Dotson. Overall, the Cats lost their three best defensive players off a defense that ranked near the bottom of the Pac 10.

How is this for rebuilding? Arizona must replace its entire defensive line, both starting corners and two starting linebackers? They have no proven pass rushers, which means the new corners will be tested early and often. The Wildcats will be playing a lot of freshman and sophomores on the defensive side of the ball this year. In other words, the Wildcats are going to have to rely on their offense to outscore people, especially early on in the season while the defense gets its feet wet.

So let's take a look at Arizona's first three games. They play Idaho, Toledo and New Mexico. Idaho is replacing seven starters on defense, including both cornerbacks. Their projected starters at corner heading into the season opener are a freshman and a sophomore. They have no proven pass rusher to get after the quarterback. Good luck.

Toledo has five starters returning on defense. They are returning to a defense that gave up almost 40 points a game in 2007. The Rockets ranked near the bottom in both rush and total defense last year. They gave up more than 40 points five times. But here is the best part: The Rockets have an explosive offense. Led by quarterback Aaron Opelt, Toledo is going to put up a ton of points this season and will have one of the most explosive offenses in the MAC. Circle this one because this is a possible monster play early in the year.

Then we have New Mexico. The Lobos defeated Arizona last year in a game that totaled 56 points. These two may eclipse that total by halftime this year. The Lobos offense is absolutely loaded with QB Donovan Porterie, RB Rodney Ferguson and a bunch of big-play receivers. The line has to replace four starters, so keep an eye on how they play in their first two games against TCU and Texas A&M. New Mexico's defense isn't nearly as bad as Idaho and Toledo but it could be susceptible early in the year while they replace three starting linebackers, both defensive ends and star safety OJ Swift.

So there you have it. If you like points (and money), Arizona is your team. Tuitama is going to blow up this year and he'll need to while a young defense finds its way. I would strongly advise making the Arizona Wildcats your primary "over" team in college football this season.

Rider's Early SEC Breakdown

Tommy Rider — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 20:49:00 GMT

Tim Tebow and the Gators sit atop the SEC, but just barely.

As I finish going through the conferences and assigning my power rankings, I will post my results here at Pregame. I started with what most people believe is the toughest conference in the country, the SEC. I'm ranking these teams based on the outcome of my power rating system. These numbers can change throughout the summer when I get more information about quarterback situations, injuries, suspensions and how impact freshman are performing. But for now, this is how things shape up in the SEC. My rating system is based on 1-10 in the following categories:

Coaching
Schedule (A tougher schedule results in a lower number)
Quarterback
Running Back
Receiver/Tight End
Offensive Line
Defensive Line
Linebacker
Secondary
Special Teams

Power Rating in Parentheses

1. Florida Gators (82) - The Gators just finished ahead of Georgia thanks in large part to what I believe is a much easier schedule. Both of these teams are loaded but a three-point difference in strength of schedule favoring the Gators proved to be the difference. Also, Florida's offense, which I believe will be the best in the country, didn't receive a grade lower than eight in any category. Throw in one of the nation's best special teams units and the Gators nip the Dawgs for the top spot in the SEC.

2. Georgia Bulldogs (81) - A murderous road schedule that includes trips to South Carolina, Arizona State, LSU and Auburn, not to mention the tussle with Florida in Jacksonville, is really the only negative when it comes to the Dawgs this season. They were very consistent in the grading system, scoring eight or above in seven of ten categories. UGA has my highest rated defense in the SEC. The Dawgs got a rare 10 from me at running back, thanks to the presence of superstar Knowshon Moreno and talented freshman Caleb King.

3. LSU Tigers (79) - The Tigers scored high in every category except quarterback and secondary. With eight home games in 2008, LSU would have had a great chance to repeat as National Champions this year if Ryan Perrilloux didn't get kicked off the team but he did and LSU is scrambling to find a quarterback heading into the season. The Tigers are still tough in the trenches, scoring a combined 19 on the offensive and defensive lines, which allowed them to barely beat out Auburn for the third spot.

4. Auburn Tigers (78) - If Kodi Burns, Chris Todd or the combination of the two can effectively run Tony Franklin's spread offense, the Tigers could be the SEC spoiler. They have and experienced offensive line and deep stable of productive running backs. The front seven on defense should dominate but an inexperienced secondary will need to prove itself. The special teams are strong and the schedule is tough but not daunting. Quarterback play will be the key.

5. Tennessee Volunteers (72) - If Auburn is a possible spoiler, the Vols are a potential sleeper. Tennessee actually graded out higher than I thought they would at this point. Led by Arian Foster, the Vols have one of the deepest group of running backs in the country. They will run behind a deep, talented offensive line. Like Auburn and LSU, the Vols are untested at QB with junior Jonathan Crompton taking over for Erik Ainge. The secondary is loaded but the schedule is tough.

6. Alabama Crimson Tide (69) - The Tide and South Carolina graded out the same but I give a slight advantage to Alabama because they have an experienced quarterback in John Parker Wilson. The Crimson Tide received high marks at coaching, running back, offensive line and special teams but a tough schedule and questionable defense probably has Nick Saban one year away from seriously competing with the SEC big boys.

7. South Carolina Gamecocks (69) - The Cocks were decimated by injuries on the defensive side of the ball last year and they should be vastly improved in that area this season. South Carolina was pretty consistent grading wise across the board, scoring a seven or higher in seven of ten categories. But question marks at quarterback, running back and along the offensive line continue to haunt Steve Spurrier in his tenure with the Gamecocks.

8. Mississippi State Bulldogs (66) - The Bulldogs had one of my lowest scores at quarterback, which is why they rank this low, despite going to a bowl game last year. If Wesley Carroll can improve, the defense is good enough to once again carry this team. They have a strong secondary and one of the conference's best special teams units but are average in pretty much every other category. A lot went right for the Bulldogs last year but it's hard to keep relying on 99-yard interception returns and blocked punts to win ball games.

9. Kentucky Wildcats (60) - There is a big drop-off from Miss. St. to Kentucky but if one on the lower ranked teams is going to jump up and surprise in the SEC, I think it could be the Cats. Like a lot of other SEC teams, Kentucky is replacing a productive quarterback but they graded out well in schedule, running back, defensive line and secondary. With a manageable schedule and what should be one of the best defenses the Cats have had in a long time, Kentucky could go bowling and stage a possible upset at some point in the SEC.

10. Ole Miss Rebels (59) - This is the team creating a lot of buzz this offseason thanks to the addition of Houston Nutt and former Texas transfer Jevan Snead at quarterback. And while the Rebels should be more competitive under Nutt, they are probably still a year away from causing problems in the SEC. Ole Miss is talented on the offensive and defensive lines, as well as receiver, but running back and the secondary are huge question marks at this point.

11. Arkansas Razorbacks (55) - I know FloridaChad is going to blow his stack and there will be better days ahead for the Hogs under Bobby Petrino. But the pieces just aren't in place for success this season. Arkansas lost both its studs at running back, must replace its entire secondary, find playmakers at receiver and hope that Casey Dick can direct Petrino's offense. I've seen nothing from Dick that makes me believe he will be successful in a pro-style attack. The Hogs graded out at seven or higher in only three categories and one of those was coaching.

12. Vanderbilt Commodores (52) - Last year Vandy had everything set up to receive a bowl bid and it didn't happen. I think Bobby Johnson is a good coach but this is a tough place to have sustained success. When opportunities to make a bowl arise like they did last year teams like Vandy must take advantage of it. Vandy has a strong secondary and special teams unit but they received my lowest grade at quarterback in the SEC. After taking a step forward the last couple of seasons, Vandy will be lucky to win three games in 2008.

I will be updating my rankings throughout the summer and will let you know if there are any major changes.

Preparing for a New Gambling Season

Tommy Rider — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 19:34:00 GMT

Tommy Rider's power rankings have Zac Robinson and OSU rated higher than most heading into the season.

With the start of football season just two short months away, it got me wondering if any of you do specific things to prepare for an upcoming sport in regards to handicapping? I'm sure we all have our own rituals and strategies to prepare for different sports, so I would be interested in hearing some of them from the forum. Below is what I do to prepare for college football season.

I usually begin my college football work in late-May or early-June, when spring practices come to an end. This is also when my first wave of information regarding all the teams arrives. What I do is first read through all my info and get a feel for each team. I then go over spring practice reports to see where the teams are looking good and where they need work. This is a great time to find out that Clemson rotated three guys at left tackle and none of them performed well or that Alabama's young receivers looked good. I make my first wave of notes on all the Division I teams based off of spring practices and early research.

The second wave is starting this week. In early July, I get updated information on all the teams. I read through all that and when I'm done, this is when I start assigning a point system to every position of every team, including coaching and schedules. This is the first step in me coming up with my power rankings for the upcoming season. I also rank the teams in each conference from the best to worst for the first time. This can really be helpful early in the year because if my projected Sun Belt No. 2 team is playing my projected SEC No. 9 team and getting a ton of points, this may represent great line value for me. Remember, these are my own personal rankings so I may have a team like Tulane rated higher than most people. Because of this, I may find more value in a spread involving the Green Wave than others might.

My final phase takes place two weeks before the first game kicks off. This is when I find out how things went in the summer and if question marks I had a couple of months ago, like Clemson's offensive line problems, have been answered. I will then go over all my notes and conference projections, taking into account injuries and suspensions. It's here will I will award my final conference rankings and power rating to every major college football team. So, as we head into the season, I have every conference predicted from worst to first and all 120 teams ranked (That includes Western Kentucky). I will then adjust these projections and rankings accordingly throughout the season.

So that's my preparation for a new season of college football in a nutshell. How do you prepare for a new gambling season? It doesn't have to be football, it can be any sport but I will look forward to hearing some feedback on this subject.

2008 CFB Rankings: No. 8 LSU Tigers

Tommy Rider — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 13:22:00 GMT

LSU Tigers

Speedy junior Keiland Williams leads a dangerous LSU rushing attack.

The Good News: That old lady who asked, "Where's the beef?" obviously wasn't an LSU fan. The people down in Norman can argue but LSU probably has the best offensive and defensive lines in the country. In my opinion, there is no doubt about the offensive line. Just ask Ohio State how good this unit is, as the stout Buckeyes defense was pushed around all over the field by the Tiger's big-uglies in last year's National Championship Game. Four starters return this season, including three big-time NFL prospects. There are plenty of talented running backs to run behind the nation's best line. Speedster Keiland Williams will be the main guy but Charles Scott, Richard Murphy and Trindon Holliday will be factors as well. Not too many teams can lose the likes of Glenn Dorsey and not skip a beat. LSU is one of those teams. Despite losing their best defensive player, the Tigers defensive line is loaded. Tyson Jackson, Ricky Jean-Francois, Kirston Pittman and Charles Alexander spearhead a defensive front that will have quarterbacks running for their lives all season long. The receivers aren't household names yet but Brandon Fell and Demetrius Byrd both have a ton of potential.

The Bad News: Quarterback. Everyone knows by now that talented Ryan Perrilloux has been kicked off the team, severely hurting the Tigers chances to repeat as National Champions. Freshman Jarrett Lee and junior Andrew Hatch will battle to lead LSU's offense this fall but neither option is a known quantity at this point. If the Tigers can square away its quarterback issues - a big if - they will be as good as any team in the country. On defense, the secondary needs to be rebuilt after losing three starters to the NFL. There's a good chance that the Tigers will be starting two sophomores in the secondary but with the talent up front, it should help mask any inconsistency in that area.

Schedule: This is a pretty good schedule to work with, especially for a team breaking in a new quarterback. The Tigers kick off the season against Division I-AA champions Appalachian State. And while that makes for a great story, the Tigers will be too much for the Mountaineers to handle. After two more glorified scrimmages at home, LSU hits the road to take on a very dangerous Auburn team. Then it's back home for Mississippi State before heading on a two-game road trip against Florida and South Carolina. You can bet the Gators will be looking for payback in the Swamp. Four of the Tigers last five games are at home, although one of those is against mighty Georgia. The SEC slate is tough but you can't complain about a schedule that features just four games away from home.

Gambling Angle: While LSU is still a very talented team, it probably won't be a wise decision to lay a lot of points with them early on with their current quarterback situation. LSU will be huge favorites against Appalachian State, Troy and North Texas early in the year, which could represent good fade material. I feel that Florida is going to roll the Tigers this season. The new LSU quarterback will be making just his second road start at the Swamp and one would think the Gators are foaming at the mouth to send a message against the reigning SEC and National Champions. Late in the year LSU could be a solid moneymaker, especially if they struggle early and the lines are favorable. Bottom line: LSU will be a much more dangerous team later in the season once the new quarterback has a few games under his belt.

Outlook: I hate picking a team with an unknown quarterback this high but LSU still has a ton of talent all over the place and the schedule is manageable. It's a shame Perrilloux couldn't stay out of trouble or this would have been a scary team once again this season. Either way, with the best offensive line in college football and a dominant defensive front, LSU will once again be in the mix for a BCS bowl game.

Projection: 9-3

Early Football Betting Tips (Part 2)

Tommy Rider — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 16:55:00 GMT

The last time we focused on the NFL but we'll now shift gears to some of the things I look at early in the year when it comes to college football.

OSU's Todd Boeckman could be the difference when the Buckeyes travel to take on USC early in the season.

1. Beware of inexperienced offensive lines. This is probably one of the best tips I can give you in any sport. Let me tell you a story. A few years ago, Dave Ragone returned to Louisville for his senior season. The Cardinals were loaded with talent at the skill positions and were expected to have a high-flying offense. One problem. Louisville was replacing all five offensive linemen with players that had little to no experience. I overlooked this and layed something like 18 points against Kentucky in the season opener. It wasn't even close. Ragone was sacked nine times and had about two seconds to throw the ball every time he dropped back to pass. Kentucky won the game outright and I vowed to never let that happen to me again. It was so frustrating knowing I had to cover close to three touchdowns and my team could barely get the snap off before the opposing defense was in the backfield. So now I closely follow teams replacing three or more linemen in the spring to see how they are making out.

Now, it's important that the new starters are inexperienced. USC is replacing three starting linemen from a year ago but all of those guys have seen significant playing time due to injuries, they just weren't listed as starters. That won't be a big deal for the Trojans. The team I see that could be in trouble is Clemson. They have a great quarterback, two great running backs and a great wide receiver. However, they have to replace both tackles from last season and after spring ball, the team still had no clear-cut starter, particularly at left tackle. All the candidates the Tigers used there in the spring were a revolving door, so the competition will spill over to the summer. Hmmm. A National Title sleeper that has no idea who their starting left tackle will be? I'm sorry but I see that as being a huge problem, especially opening up with Alabama. Some might point out that the Bama defense wasn't very good last year. That was last year. Nick Saban is a defensive-minded coach and he has a lot of young talent at his disposal. I guarantee that the Crimson Tide defense will be vastly improved this season. So, keep an eye on Clemson's tackle situation as we get closer to the start of the season. If it doesn't get fixed in a hurry, Tommy Bowden and the Tigers will be getting off to a slow start once again.

2. When two good teams square off, experience at quarterback is huge. As luck would have it, we have a perfect example of this on Sept. 13 when Ohio State travels to USC. First of all, you are going to get tremendous line value with the Buckeyes here. Everyone will remember Ohio State getting blasted in the last two National Championship Games, so oddsmakers will have to protect against everyone slamming the Trojans at a low number. Secondly, USC is going to maul Virginia in its opener. I think the Trojans will win this game by 40 points and if I'm right, that will only increase the line the following week against OSU.

I've already heard an early projection of USC -7 in this game. I'm sorry but that's way too high. Talk about tremendous value in a line. When you look at these two teams, they are almost a mirror image of each other. Both squads have dominating defenses and strong offensive lines leading the way for talented running backs. The big difference, however, is at quarterback. While Mark Sanchez started three games last year, he has never seen a defense like the Buckeyes. Meanwhile, Todd Boeckman has been in the biggest games, on the biggest stage. I'm not saying that Ohio State will win this game but I am saying that you will most likely get great value with the Buckeyes in this one. And when teams are as close as these two are, experience at the quarterback position will often be the difference.

3. Lay the wood early but beware once conference play begins. I love betting teams with explosive, experienced offenses early in the year to cover big numbers. Teams like Florida, Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas Tech will be almost impossible to stop when they face inferior opponents. The saying is defenses are ahead of the offenses early in the year but not for teams like this that have most of their starters returning, including blue-chip quarterbacks. Take the Florida/Hawaii game for instance. The Gators will name their score in that one. They will score, score and score all day long. I like to take a few teams every year that I think will have the best offenses in the country (Mine for 2008 are listed above) and bet them in the first couple weeks of the season.

That's part one of my plan. The second part involves taking the exact opposite approach once the tough conference slate begins. Because teams like Florida, Missouri, OU and Tech will roll teams early on, the spreads will be elevated by the time they reach conference play. That's when you can find good value when Florida travels to a Mississippi State or Missouri goes on the road to battle Colorado. My theory is you can find solid lines early in the year with these teams and then find value going against them once October rolls around.

These are just a couple of things I look at early in the college football season to try and find some winners. Please feel free to post any of your CFB betting strategies that you think would be beneficial to the forum. I look forward to the feedback.

Early Football Betting Tips (Part I)

Tommy Rider — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 22:52:00 GMT

I asked what kind of football information people would be interested in reading and Petey suggested going over some tips for betting football. Obviously, this is a complex subject we are discussing. Many different variables go into selecting a particular team such as injuries, trends, line movements, etc. And different cappers have different ways of picking games. I know Jumperjack watches line movements very closely and will often go against the public. Dommylocks goes strictly by his bible and both of these guys have tremendous success when it comes to picking winners. In other words, there is more than one way to skin a cat. I'm a guy that gets by largely due to my knowledge of players and matchups. I don't just want to know how good the starting left tackle is for San Fran, I want to know if his backup can play as well. That's my strength when it comes to capping these teams. On the other hand, my guess is Vegas-Runner could give a rat's ass who is playing left tackle for the 49ers. He's about inside info, strong contacts and getting the best line before it moves. Again, different people bring different things to the table.

Below I'm just going to touch on a couple of things I look for heading into the football season that's been helpful to me early in the year. I decided to break this up into two parts: NFL and CFB. Part I will focus on the NFL.

1. This season isn't last season. This may sound like a simple concept but trust me, way too many people go into a year thinking they are betting on last season's team. It's human nature. We remember the last thing we saw. First of all, if you are watching ESPN, turn off your damn TV. These guys are a joke. Every year their so-called "experts" come on and tell us that this season will go exactly like last season. They will pick the same teams to be good and the same teams to be bad. In the history of the NFL, that's never happened. And when they do pick a "sleeper" it will be a team like the Eagles. The Eagles aren't a sleeper, they are one of the best teams in the NFC. They underperformed last year because of injuries, plain and simple.

But it's not just ESPN. The other day Matty e-mailed me a blog from a handicapper that had his season win totals for the AFC. He picked over on the Patriots, Colts, Steelers, Chargers and Browns. I can't tell you how stupid that is. First of all, the chances of all those teams being the best in the conference again are slim to none. Sure, the Patriots and Colts are always a safe bet simply because they have the two most important players in football. But take the Chargers for instance. For this guy to win his over bet on the Chargers season win total, San Diego would have to have one of its four best seasons in franchise history. Does that sound like value to you? In today's mediocre driven NFL, do you really want to bet that the Norv Turner-led Chargers are going to have one of their best years ever? I sure as hell don't.

So remember, a new year is going to bring a lot of different changes. I will give you a guarantee right now: either the Steelers or Chargers won't make the playoffs this year and when it happens that fat blowfish Chris Berman will insult our intelligence yet again by saying, "No one saw this coming." Actually Chris, if you follow the NFL in 2008, you should expect it.

2. There are very few trap games early in the year. Any good football bettor is always looking for those trap games. You know the ones that look too good to be true? Those games usually start rearing their ugly head the first week of October. Why? See rule No. 1. It takes the books a couple of weeks to get used to a new season. That's why the so-called "squares" win early on but by the time Halloween comes around those bettors are sucking dick for beer money. I used to be a bookie and I had 30-40 people betting with me. I would always get killed during the first three weeks of the season. But then as the leaves started to change, so did their luck. Once the books get a good read on these teams, the lines are so tight that if something looks too easy, it usually is.

But look at Week 1 this year. The Lions are a one-point favorite over the Falcons. Everyone will be on the Lions and everyone is going to win. I have broken down both of these rosters and heading into the season, Atlanta isn't in the same league as Detroit. Granted, anything can happen but my guess is the Lions will win that game by at least 10 points and the books will pay out. But when that same type of game comes around four weeks later, the books get it all back and then some. That's why I never had a job when I took bets. Because even though the public won early, by the time November came around half of my guys were already on a payment plan or trying to sell me their skies to pay off a debt. Unfortunately for them, I have no desire to glide down a hill in the freezing cold, so I held out for the cash instead. It's almost like a drug. Those easy looking games win a lot early on to get people hooked but before long, Joe Square Gambler has his phone disconnected and is staying with a cousin 1,000 miles away for a couple of months.

3. Have your list of sleepers ready to go. Before the season starts, a good idea is to have a couple of teams you think have a chance to get good line value during the first few weeks. When I say "sleeper" I don't mean the Eagles. Everyone and their mother knows Philly will bounce back this year and you aren't going to get any line value with them regardless of the fact that they missed the playoffs last year. A sleeper team to me is someone like the Texans. Houston is steadily getting better every year under Gary Kubiak and I think they could push for a playoff berth this season. It's just too bad that they play in by far the NFL's toughest division. But still, the Texans are going to be a very tough out most weeks. Yet, as you peruse the Week 1 lines, there is Houston getting seven points against Pittsburgh. That represents good value in my opinion. So grab yourself a couple of teams you think the oddsmakers may be off on over the first month and take advantage of it until the books adjust accordingly.

4. Stay away from the bandwagon teams. You know the ones I'm talking about. Let me ask you a question. How many times have you heard this comment so far this offseason, "I really think the Vikings/Bills are going to be improved this year." I'm not saying it won't be the case but the books know who these teams are as well, meaning you don't get much value with them early on. Seriously, I've heard so many people talk about Buffalo this offseason that I thought Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas came out of retirement. Hey, the Bills fought like hell last year and had a good season despite dealing with more injuries than any other team in the league. And I do think they made some nice moves this offseason to get better. But this is also the same Bills team I saw the Patriots and Giants toy with on their home field like they were a JV high school squad.

That's why when one well respected media member said to me during the draft, "I think Buffalo can compete with the Patriots in the AFC East this year," I replied, "Are you out of your fucking mind? The Patriots won this division by nine games last year. Are you telling me you think Buffalo closed the gap by nine games in one offseason?" Just be careful with teams like this, especially the Vikings. Sorry Hellerud but the presence of Adrian Peterson alone will drive down Minnesota lines because the public will be riding them early and often.

5. Know your coaches. For a guy like me who relies heavily on analysis and matchups, this is an absolute must. It's important to not only know head coaches but coordinators as well. That's a very underrated aspect of breaking down a team. We all know Jim Zorn is the new head coach of the Redskins but what kind of coach is he? Who did he coach under? What offensive system does he prefer? Who is his offensive coordinator and who will call the plays? I won't list all that information here because there are too many coaching changes to break down right now but I would strongly advise getting familiar with all the new head coaches and coordinators around the league.

A lot of people believe talent wins games. That's true sometimes but it's not true all the time. Coaching plays a huge part in the outcome of NFL games because most of these teams are all jumbled together and a good or bad coach can make the difference. Listen to what a personnel guy with the Patriots told me just before the playoffs started: "The only team we are worried about talent-wise is the Cowboys. They have the best overall talent in the NFC by far. If you look at them on paper, they can really compete with us. However, they lack the coaching to go anywhere. They should roll through the NFC but more than likely, they'll lose in the first round." Of course, the Patriots probably should have been a little bit more worried about the Giants but that's a discussion for another time.

So these are just a few of the things I focus on as I prepare for the upcoming NFL season. And like I said, this is just one blog post. There are many more factors that could be added here. If you would like to add some of the theories or strategies you use to get ready for the upcoming season, feel free. Or if you think I'm way off on something, fire away. Remember, intelligent discussion now leads to us all making more money down the road.

2008 CFB Rankings: No. 7 West Virginia Mountaineers

Tommy Rider — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 03:06:00 GMT

West Virginia Mountaineers

Note: My two favorite college football teams are West Virginia and SMU. WVU because of Major Harris and SMU because of the Pony Express. I hated the hiring of Bill Stewart as head coach. I think the program will most likely head south in 2009 but this team is still loaded with talent to make one last run this season before the bottom falls out.

The Good News: While the architect of West Virginia's spread offense is now coaching Michigan, the orchestrator is still in Morgantown. Pat White is one of the most dynamic open-field runners at any position I've ever seen. Even though the team lost starting running back Steve Slaton and bulldozing fullback Owen Schmitt, the rushing attack will still be potent. Noel Devine has a chance to be a huge star if he can stay out of trouble. As far as football goes, the combination of Devine and White in the backfield is the most explosive duo in the country. The offensive line returns four starters and will help pave the way for White and Devine to get into the open field, where they are close to impossible to chase down. The Mountaineers have the best group of linebackers in the Big East, led by Reed Williams and Mortty Ivy. West Virginia is excellent in all phases on special teams.

The Bad News: Stewart is a very nice guy and I'm rooting for him to succeed but I'm already hearing buzz phrases that raise a red flag with me. "Practices are more laid back," "He doesn't yell as much as Coach Rodriguez," and things like that. Those kind of things just add fuel to the perception that Stewart is better suited to be a coordinator than a head coach. On the field, WVU has some questions to answer as well. Devine is dynamic but he's only 175 pounds and there are no proven backs behind him. Someone will need to step up because Devine can't carry the load on his own. Seven starters are gone from what was a strong Mountaineers defense last season. The biggest hit was on the defensive line, where both starting tackles need to be replaced. Also, four of five starters in the secondary are gone (WVU starts five defensive backs), so there are concerns there as well. Leading receiver Darius Reynaud departed but the Mountaineers are very deep at that position.

Schedule: The Big East schedule is very manageable but the non-conference slate is a bear. The Mountaineers must travel to East Carolina and Colorado before hosting SEC power Auburn on Oct. 23. The one good thing in West Virginia's corner is teams that don't see their offensive speed on a yearly basis can get caught by surprise when they see it up close (Georgia, Oklahoma). In the Big East, WVU has to travel to Pitt and UConn but gets South Florida and Rutgers at home. The Bulls are the only team to really slow down the West Virginia offensive machine the last two seasons. Overall, this is a very demanding schedule.

Gambling Angle: With seven new starters on defense and an explosive offense, West Virginia games should once again be high scoring affairs. This will be the case particularly early in the season, while White and the offense carry a green defense. The game against Colorado should come close to racking up 100 points. Mark that one down on your calender right now. That game will fly over the total. Also, remember that WV usually creams weaker teams like Syracuse and Marshall that just don't posses the defensive speed to stop its spread-option attack.

Outlook: The Mountaineers enter the season with some uncertainty but they get ranked this high because of the conference they play in. While teams in the SEC and Big 12 are going to beat the hell out of each other, West Virginia should roll over the Big East until its season finale at home versus South Florida. Some major upsets will need to happen for that game not to decide the conference title. Like I said, while I don't love Stewart, the offense should be close to unstoppable with White and offensive coordinator Jeff Mullen leading the way. If the defense can improve as the year goes on, the WV offense will take care of the rest. Wins over Auburn and South Florida could put the Mountaineers in the Orange Bowl playing for all the marbles.

Projection: 11-1

2008 CFB Rankings: No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes

Tommy Rider — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 03:12:00 GMT

Ohio State Buckeyes

The Good News: While only Ohio State backers want to see them make a third trip to the National Championship Game after two straight blowouts, CFB fans everywhere may be disappointed in early January. That's because the 2008 Buckeyes could be even better than the two teams that came before them, making a third consecutive shot at the National Title a distinct possibility. How's this for scary? The Buckeyes have an experienced quarterback and offensive line (Featuring three NFL prospects), a Heisman Trophy candidate at running back, nine starters returning from the nation's best defense in 2007 and the most sought after recruit in the country; multi-talented QR Terrelle Pryor. Other than that things look bleak in Columbus. The defense could end up being one of the best in school history, led by Butkus Award winner James Laurinatis and premier cover corner Malcolm Jenkins. This will easily be one of the most feared defenses in the nation. Beanie Wells is as good a running back as there is in college football. With Wells running behind a strong line, the rushing attack will open things up for Todd Boeckman and the passing game.

The Bad News: Other than the backlash of getting drilled by Florida and LSU in the last two title games, not much. The one possible pitfall for the Bucks is quarterback controversy that could surface if Ohio State struggles offensively at USC early in the year. Boeckman is a solid signal caller that manages the game well but fans and alumni are drooling over the thought of Pryor running the offense. Pryor will see some time running the spread, similar to what Florida did with Tim Tebow during his freshman year. But if Boeckman can't get it done on the road versus the Trojans, there will be a huge outcry to get Pryor more snaps at quarterback. However, that likely won't happen since one early loss won't eliminate Ohio State from reaching the title game. Pryor will get his day in the sun but it's going to be Boeckman's offense to run in 2008. The Buckeyes could also stand to get better on special teams, especially on kickoff returns, an area they ranked dead last in among Division I schools a year ago.

Schedule: The Sept. 13 clash with USC is huge for the Buckeyes. If they get by that game, it's going to take an upset to prevent an undefeated season. There are a couple of potential pitfalls, however. Road games against Wisconsin and Illinois are far from sure wins. Madison is one of the toughest places to play in the country and the Illini beat Ohio State last season. Then there is the season finale at home against Michigan. Remember one thing about the Wolverines: They will be much tougher in November than they will be in September. Still, this schedule sets up perfect for Ohio State if they can upset the Trojans.

Gambling Angle: This is as nasty a defense as you are going to find at the collegiate level. However, in the spring the focus was on creating more turnovers defensively and turning them into scores. That makes me weary of taking a lot of unders with Ohio State when they are facing weaker teams. The Buckeyes offense is going to score and if the defense adds a touchdown here or there, I actually think the over in games against teams like Minnesota and Purdue are solid plays. Also, don't be afraid to lay the wood with this team in conference games. The Buckeyes are going to destroy the weak sisters of the Big 10.

Outlook: With 18 returning starters and the excitement of adding Pryor as a change-of-pace quarterback, this is a dangerous team. I was really disappointed with the performance Ohio State put forth against LSU last year. They got manhandled in the trenches and they are just too good for that to happen against anyone. Here is the problem with Ohio State. If they beat USC, people will say it was because the Trojans had an inexperienced quarterback. If they plow through the Big 10, people will say it's because the Big 10 is weak. The only way the Buckeyes can gain respect is to win the National Championship. With the talent Ohio State has and a favorable schedule, three times could be the charm in Columbus.

Projection: 10-2

Who is Your Favorite Athlete Ever?

Tommy Rider — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 14:52:00 GMT

For some reason or another, people are drawn to certain athletes. We all have our favorites and we all have people that we hate, even though we don't know these people personally. If we went by how nice people really are, Tedy Bruschi wouldn't be one of the most popular Patriots of all-time. Trust me.

I have had three favorite athletes during my lifetime. The first was Tony Dorsett. Growing up a Cowboys fan, TD was the man and it took me many years before I would admit that Emmitt Smith was better than him. I don't think the younger fans of today realize how good Dorsett was, despite being roughly 180 pounds for most of his career. Years later Dorsett's son would cost me thousands of dollars when he missed a tackle on Isaac Bruce in the Super Bowl.

My next favorite athlete was Magic Johnson. When it comes to basketball, I'm mesmerized by players who have mastered the art of the pass. Maybe it's because I can't shoot a lick and I'm a passer myself on the court. No one ever passed the basketball like Magic. I used to love watching those no-look passes he would make back in the Lakers glory days.

But my favorite athlete of all-time is a no brainer. It's the greatest Dallas Cowboy of them all: Emmitt Smith. Emmitt surpassed Dorsett that day in Giants Stadium when he led the Cowboys to victory with a third degree shoulder separation. Some people forget that game was for the division title. Dallas was beat up at that point in the season and if they lost, they would have played the next week at San Fran, in a game I'm certain they would have lost. They needed a week off and thanks largely to Emmitt, they got it. That performance from Emmitt helped the Cowboys win another Super Bowl Title and of all the great players Dallas has had over the years, the two best in my opinion are Emmitt and Randy White (maybe the most underrated player in NFL history).

Honorable Mention: Eric Dickerson, SMU

So, who is your favorite player and why? Also, do you have a player you absolutely hate and if so, what is the reason?