If you want to win money, take the opposite approach like George Costanza and fade "The Mush."
I'm a huge Seinfeld fan to the point where 40 percent of my spoken language comes from Seinfeld episodes (The other 60 percent comes from movie lines). One of my favorite Seinfeld episodes ever is when George Costanza does the opposite of everything he normally does because every decision he's ever made has been wrong. As Jerry said, "If every decision you've ever made has been wrong, then the opposite would have to be right."
I have this friend who has been gambling for 20 years and I think he's collected twice in his whole life. Luckily, he offers other services that provide a steady income. I won't get into specifics but let's just say he doesn't fill out a tax return at the end of the year. This guy is such a pear-shaped loser, that he's become known as "The Mush" to those of us who know him best. You want to see square. The only time this guy bets an underdog is when it's one of those obvious underdogs like the Cowboys getting two-points at Philly or something like that. People often ask me, "How do you win at sports gambling." While I never give them this answer, the obvious response is "Fade The Mush." The funny thing is, this guy actually thinks he's a good gambler. I once asked him, "When is the last time you collected?" His response was, "I collect all the time. You are the jinx. Every time I tell you my plays, I lose."
So I called The Mush this week and he's agreed to give me all of his plays this NFL season so I can track them. I got to thinking and I figured, why not share these losers with the Pregame community? So every week I will call The Mush on Thursday and ask him his plays, then post them here. Like I said, this guy is a born loser. Without further ado, here are the opposite of The Mush's plays for Week 1 in the NFL:
Miami +3 (Best Bet)
Let me get this straight: Brett Favre is on the Jets, the money is coming in fast and furious on New York, yet this line is only three points? I'm not buying it. This looks like the trap of the decade. Right now, over 80 percent of the money is on the Jets. I know it takes a lot to move a game off of three points but it looks to me like the books are practically begging you to take the Jets here. Well, guess who they reeled in? You got it, The Mush. As he told me, "My lock of Week 1 is the Jets. They win easy." OK Mush, the Dolphins it is as a best bet.
Atlanta +3
Here is another one set at -3 where the money is pouring in on a road favorite. Currently, 78 percent of the action is on the Lions. Yes, the same Lions team that's won like three road games this decade. I suspected The Mush would be all over the Lions and I was right. If nothing else, The Mush certainly is predictable. As he told me, "Matt Ryan will be out of the league in three years. This one is easy money." I agree. The Falcons +3 is easy money.
Cleveland +5.5
Luckily for me being a Cowboys fan, The Mush doesn't lose every game he picks. But here's the problem: The Mush is ALSO a big Cowboys fan, so he takes them pretty much every week. Of course, 86 percent of the public is on Dallas this week and The Mush is jumping in with both feet. I asked The Mush, "What would this line have to be for you not to take Dallas?" His response? "Over two touchdowns." What a loser. Just so you know, you can pretty much pencil in the Cowboys here every week because The Mush is not only a loser, he's a huge homer.
Bears +9.5
The Colts and Patriots are two more of The Mush's usual suspects but he's concerned about Brady this week, so the Pats aren't one of his plays. However, a primetime game featuring the Colts is an automatic play for The Mush, unless they are playing the Patriots or Cowboys. The Colts actually have less than 70 percent of the money right now, which in The Mush's world makes this close to an underdog selection. Here is The Mush's reasoning for backing the Colts in this game, "It's Manning versus Orton and the line is less than 10 points." I tried to remind The Mush that Manning and Orton aren't actually playing against each other but as usual, my advice fell on deaf ears.
That's The Mush's plays for Week 1 in the NFL. Just before I hung up the phone with him, Mush declared, "Tell your people that's 4-0 baby and they can thank me later." Trust me Mush, they will.
Mush's Season Record: 0-0