The King Maker

THE KING MAKER'S SECONDARY INDICATORS: Free-Throw Percentages.

2010-02-05T17:46:00Z

Charity is good, as long as you get to the stripe!

Charity Hodges

This is a real quick article in honor of a pal. He always gets nervous when we take an OVER if a lousy free-throw shooting team is in the mix. In many cases, it's a series of lousy foul shots that kill an OVER or, at least, that's what people think killed the total.

In reality, all totals are decided by the confluence of hundreds of variables, but it's often the most apparent or memorable factors that catch our attention. And this is why my buddy rejects many of our OVER calls. Everyone has lost a total by a "hook" due to a brick from the charity stripe. If you've gambled on basketball for more than 5 years, then you've lost a game by a few missed free throws. Or, at least, that's what we blame it on.

To make a long story VERY short:

Many of the more questionable free throw shooting teams have poor percentages because they shoot a boatload of free-throws!

WE took Ball State in an OVER last night. It was set at 112.5 and it cleared that number by 9 points. Ball State shoots 68% from the line (and it was closer to 66% earlier), but they are ranked #2 in the Nation in terms of scoring offense from the Charity Stripe! 28% of their offense comes from the Line, so when they took 26 foul shots last night, we were taking advantage of a hidden Secondary Indicator. IT'S NOT NECESSARILY THE AVERAGE, BOYS.....IT'S THE FREQUENCY.

Here are the teams that score almost a third of their points from the Free Throw Line:

Wyoming 69%

Ball St. 68%-66%

Colorado St. 69%

Northridge 66%

North Texas 73%

Vermont 68%-66%

Bakersfield 68%

Louisiana Monroe 73%

HARVARD (tonight) 76%

Butler 74%

The overall averages of each of these teams are pretty strong, but they usually contain players that have GREAT percentages mixed with some pretty bad players. Those 68% teams have a lot of "UGLY" on their roster.

The next batch of teams with at least 25% charity contribution are as follows:

Kansas State (65%), TAMU (64%), Arizona (75%), Washington State (70%), Washington (71%), Colorado (76%), South Florida (67%).

The teams that are shocking people: Like Kansas State and South Florida, or teams that seem to come out of nowhere with sudden covers like Colorado, Ball State, and Wyoming are doing it with speed, defense, and boards, but the common denominator is that all important Charity Stripe Factor.

I suppose I'm trying to introduce you to seconday and tertiary data strings. As handicappers we need to get underneath the "surface noise" and get into the bones and tendons of a team's functionality.

So DON'T fall for the shooting percentage.

Go after the FREQUENCY and SUCCESS RATE. 26 attempts at 66% is much better than 9 attempts at 75%, ok?

Afterall: a team can shoot 43% from the ARC, but only take 6 of those shots per game, right? The same thing goes for Free-Throws, Field Goals, and Points-Per-Shot. FREQUENCY, FREQUECY, FREQUENCY.....

I hope this makes sense, if it doesn't ,then comment for me and I'll edit for clarity.

Good luck tonight!

THE KING MAKER: TOUT SCHOOL LESSON #1

2009-10-14T23:38:00Z

This is an open letter to all aspiring Touts

Rule #1: Your record is never as bad as it seems.

THE KING MAKER is working with a dismal 7-9 record in NCAA football. He's made his clients an abysmal $170.00 on the season. That's not what you want from your Professional is it? WELL SURE IT IS! Let me show you how to cook the books on that 7-9 showing.

I am one of the rare Professional Touts that pays to have his record tracked by an independant monitoring service, so you can dredge up my numbers and decide what you want to do with me. It's a potentially devastating system, because you can't escape your history, and that's why so many Touts shy away from being monitored at all.

TOUTS NEED CREATIVE NUMBERS! Being monitored screws that up!

Let me show you a little something about CREATIVE MARKETING.

I'm 7-9 in the NCAA at +$170.00. That isn't a whole lot to TOUT is it?

But I'm 5-2 (+$2,800.00) on my Top Plays in the NCAA (10-Star)!

Now this is something I can TOUT...."Kevin has nailed 5 out of 7 Top Plays this season and he's unleashing another winner tonight!"

Suddenly, a shitty 7-9 record gets ignored for a hidden nugget of gold (5-2).

Oh, it gets better!

I'm sitting at 9-4 in the NFL and 6-1 with my SIDES (+$3050.00)! So now I can really muddy the waters and say I am 11-3 (+$5,850.00) on my SIDE WAGERS in Football! TRULY I AM A MONEY MAKER! The 5-2 record on Top Plays in the NCAA were all SIDES, so I can creatively mix them with my stellar 6-1 SIDE record in the NFL and cook up a nice 11-3 record on SIDES

THE KING MAKER is a whopping 11-3 on Side Wagers in Football this Season! BUY, BUY, BUY!

As a TOUT I have three MARKETING windows open to me:

1. I'm 5-2 (+$2,800.00) in TOP PLAYS in the NCAA

2. I'm 11-3 (+$5,850.00) on ALL Side Wagers in Football this year!

3. I'm 9-4 (+$2,310.00) in the NFL on ALL wagers this year!

When, in fact, I'm 16-13 (+2,480.00) in Football. I'm 7-9 in the NCAA (+$170.00). And I'm 9-4 (+$2,310.00) in the NFL.

I'm not trying to slam anyone. I'm simply trying to show you how a Tout like me can cook the numbers so that their record looks much better than the actual day-to-day client works with. THIS IS ALSO A REASON WHY YOU MIGHT SEE NEGATIVE POSTS WHEN A CAPPER TRIES TO BE POSITIVE. If you'll notice, I don't have a RED dollar amount up there. I've managed my rating system well enough to survive a 48% record in the NCAA with a GREEN number. The larger question would be, how many of my viewers are GREEN after following that 16-13 Record? DO YOU THINK THEY STUCK TO MY RATING SYSTEM?

You can see why a regular client would be pissed, BUT YOU CAN ALSO SEE HOW SALES CAN BE UPLIFTED BY MOVING THE NUMBERS AROUND. Newbies don't care, and most Touts don't post a detailed record, so all those hidden options are open to me!

This is the nature of the beast. Please know what you're dealing with, ok? Touts can really cook the books and still be telling the absolute truth!

With that being said: I want to congratualte a few of my fellow Professionals.

Spartan is sitting at #4 in the NFL at The Sports Monitor with a 74% Winning rate.

Marco is one of the TOP professionals at 15-9 in NCAA Football at The Sports Monitor.

Vegas Runner is holding almost $5,000.00 in Net Profit at The Sports Monitor in the NCAA (much higher with many clients) AND he's got $7,550.00 in Net Profit in the NFL!

Mike Hook is doing VERY WELL in both NCAA and NFL Football: He's 61.11% in the NCAA and 60% in the NFL over at the Sports Monitor.

Those guys put their asses on the line by being TRANSPARENT. They deserve extra attention. They are Monitored and are dominating! Congrats boys!

That's my observation for the week.

Take it with a grain of salt.

GEORGIA TECH at MIAMI: Miami Answers ALL questions.

2009-09-16T19:44:00Z

Can Miami Actually Stop The Tech Offense?

The new defensive coordinator for Miami was part of a team that shut down Tech last year (28-7 UNC Win). Unfortunately, he won't be suiting up against the Tech offense.

The important thing to note is that Vaughn Telemaque (rFR) and "Ray Ray" Armstrong (true-FR) will be playing a ton of snaps at the safety position on Thursday. I want to show you what happens to a safety that doesn't understand the "keys" to lining up against a Veer/Flex offense.

The Safety has IMPORTANT "contain" duties on the edge, and if he cheats to the line (as most youngsters will do if they need an advantage against the run), then he's going to get popped by a blocker that's trained to nail him in space.

Watch as this Miami safety gets cleared out. He's the second closest guy at the bottom of the screen: Also take note of the OLB that MUST account for the QB. And notice that the Corner has to follow the WR out of the play.....This is man vs. man! Pay attention to the DE that has to read the DIVE and takes himself out of the play. But look at the Safety, ok!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCHuJ8mqjTE&feature=related

Miami Secondary Issues:

*"Jo Jo" Nicholas (Jr) has the Flu, so they lose one experienced Safety tomorrow.

*Miami's Junior CB, DeMarcus Van Dyke, is OUT with a concussion.

*There's a 3rd Redshirt Freshman in the 3 deep at Safety as well.

Can you tell me if Miami has the tools to READ this offense from Atlanta?

Remember: it's about SMARTS and EXPERIENCE, not athletic ability.

Guys: This is a critical position to maintain against any sort of VEER or FLEX or LOAD.....

ACCOUNTABILITY: Shouldn't Every Professional Handicapper Be Monitored?

2009-09-14T14:00:00Z

If you receive money from a client base, then you have the money to reinvest in a monitoring service. It's just that simple. The owner of Pregame.com actually makes it easy on willing professionals to become the subject of an independent monitoring service, it should be noted that he has done whatever he can to make this site more transparent. With that being said........

Should a "service" be trusted with their own reporting methods?

I'm sure you can answer that for yourself. When money is involved, self-regulation is NOT an acceptable form of governance.

Moving on:

The following complaints will occur, in terms of using a monitoring service.

1. "I like to buy points, and the 'monitor' won't let me."

2. "I use multiple books, and the 'monitor' uses a limited set of sources."

3. "I base a lot of my work on Teasers and the monitor doesn't accept them."

Those are valid points, but let's be honest. I don't have any solid numbers, but I believe 40% of the available client base works with a "local" source for their wagering transactions (Municipal or "Bookie"). These local sources are not as flexible as an "offshore book", so the "monitoring" guidelines are closer to reality. Teasers and large point "buys" are not accepted in those locales.

The dangers of "Forum Records":

When a record is kept in a forum, "typographical errors" become quite common. Some of those records are made out of honest human error, and some of them are outright mistakes of dubious origin. Either way, it's NOT a good way of doing business. At the end of each quarter, a corporation will release a detailed report on its balance sheet. As a money gathering entity with a performance based revenue structure, the "Service" is, or should be, bound by the same reporting methodology.

*The forum record can also be fluffed up by supporters of a given capper, or denigrated by hidden competitors of a given handicapper. The entire process of posting a forum record falls under a multitude of divergent agendas.

*TYPOS also occur in the transmission of a record from one forum to another, and the alteration of that record, in the hands of a competitor (or downright cheat) is entirely possible....AND INEVITABLE.

Forum records should be taken with a HUGE grain of salt for the above reasons.

It's taken me a while to figure out how to deal with a monitoring service, but I now believe that it's the only way to separate the touts from the legitimate handicappers. It's forced me to lean toward the needs of the clients that don't use offshore books (frankly, theses are the clients with the most at risk, by the way)

Wouldn't you be happier (as a client) if you could reference an independently monitored handicapper?

Should all "paid handicappers" be monitored by a 3rd party?

I'm open to every opinion on this matter, and would love to hear your opinions.....

How to Crush the 3-4 Defense: Tennessee has a Weapon!

2009-09-10T01:37:00Z

You can CRUSH a 3-4 with two Tight Ends

This is a quick Blog to my Pregame buddies. I want you to take this Blog and apply it to every game that resembles this formula. The hard work is in the secondary and tertiary capping, but the opening screening method goes as follows:

Formula:Two Tight End Sets Occupy 3-4 Defenses to the point of neutrality.

I told you guys to take the Chicago Bears Team Total OVER in the Preseason when they faced the Broncos, because I knew the Bronco's switched to a "poor man's" 3-4 defense, and the Bears now had Green Bay's 3-4 and Detroit's 3-4 to face in the regular season.

What did they do to compensate?

The Bears had the ability to run an OFFENSIVE two-tight end set. Mister OIsen and Mister Clark can both match up with the OLB's and also line up in the slot or chip from the line to catch a pass! This drags the OLB's away from the rush, and the blitz, BUT IT ALSO ALLOWS THE NOSE TACKLE TO BE DOUBLE TEAMED!!!!!!

The Nose Tackle is the heart of the 3-4.

Kill him and the Middle linebackers lose "protection" and get a guard in their grill. Kill him with a double team and he gets.....DOUBLE TEAMED! HA! Two tight ends do that for an offense!

Two-Tight End Sets also:

*Tie up a safety.

*Seal Edges.

*Occupy a middle linebacker in the "seam"

*Make a screen pass effective.

I digress: Double team on the nose-tackle? Occupied Linebackers ON THEIR HEELS?

You have been notified!

Tennessee has Bo Scaife and Algae Crumpler bumping off the edges on Thursday.

FYI, brothers and sisters! Pittsburgh will have to WORK!

Suddenly, a powerful 3-4 is compromized.

I have a thread on the Titan/Steeler game as well:

http://pregame.com/forums/forums/p/94515/611414.aspx#611414

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Added on Thursday afternoon: Interesting!

Pittsburgh had the 29th ranked FIRST HALF offense in the NFL last year.

They had the 9th ranked SECOND HALF offense last year.

What does that tell us?

Here's my guess:

Pittsburgh doesn't have a great offensive line, and their impact players are scrappy, but not entirely "elite" (injury was a factor).

So when Team-A's defense is fresh, they tend to hold their own against the Steeler offense, but after the Steeler defense knocks Team-A's offense off the field in 4 downs (over and over), then Team-A's defense gets worn out!

By the time the middle of the 3rd quarter rolls around, Team-A's defense is toast.

This is how a 29th ranked defense suddenly becomes a juggernaut after 2 quarters!

So what did Tennessee do this year?

They retianed 10 players for their defensive line rotation. Out of 53 players, 10 of them are on the D-line. All of them will see action tonight. It's in the design and philosophy of the Titan's system. Play a ton of lineman and kill the opposing offense in the 4th quarter. Attrition!

The question for you is.......do you think the Pittsburgh O-line can outlast the Tennessee D-line?

Is Utah State's Defensive Allignment Designed to Face the Spread?

2009-09-03T14:17:00Z

I can't tell you if the Utah game will surpass the posted total. (not yet)

I can't tell you, with any sort of certainty, that Utah can cover 21 points tonight. (not yet)

And I'm not an expert on allignment strategy when facing a spread offense. But neither is Michigan, Alabama, Oklahoma, or BYU, right?

I do know this:

Traditional 4-man defensive fronts are completely susceptible to the spread option. I'll save you all the diagrams and all the techno-jargon and give you a simple explanation as to why Appalachain State whipped Michigan or why Utah creamed Alabama or why Florida destroys every defense.

For me, it all started with Bobby Wagner (last night). He's was a talented linebacker for Utah State last season. As a Freshman he had 51 tackles, but with a horrible defensive line in front of him, he only had 2 tackles for a loss. In any case, he was the clear choice for starting outside linebacker in 2009.

BUT!

Utah's former defensive coordinator took the job at Utah State and Bobby Wagner was moved to defensive end. It's a curious move, and I was licking my chops, thinking that Utah would run over this kid whenever he lined up across from one of their 300 pound offensive tackles. You see, Bobby Wagner weighs 217 pounds.

Allignment mismatches like Utah State's 231 and 217 pound defensive ends are like candy to a handicapper. There is no way around the fact that SIZE MATTERS in the trenches. There's no way around it! Or is there?

Did it shock you that Alabama's size was useless against Utah in the bowl game last year?

Did it shock you that Michigan's defense looked like a prep school unit against App. State?

How did those big defensive ends, 3-4 linebackers, and defensive tackles get beaten by a division-1 spread offense?

A lesson:

The intention of the spread offense is to SPREAD OUT THE DEFENSE so that the offense can RUN THE BALL. The spread offense wants to run the ball between the tackles. They don't care to run the ball to the edges, because that's where the bulk of the defense has been placed. The spread offense creates weak points between the tackles, and that's why Percy Harvin and Tim Tebow made a living off SEC defenses. They'll do it again this year too.

The weakness of the defenses that face a spread is usually a strength against a Pro-Set.

The 270 pound BCS defensive ends are taught to push the tackles back. They want to collapse the pocket and get into the backfield, and when this occurs they take sweeping strides that open up a gap between the guard and tackle. With eyes upfield, the big defensive end sweeps toward the QB and a hole opens up, then the nimble little QB/RB scampers through that big gap for 8 yards.

In the spread offense, the offensive tackle will actually walk a defensive end back, then leave the end, and proceed to smash into the nearest linebacker.

WHAT! he leaves the rush end?

Indeed! The rush end will usually have the job of covering the QB, so he can't directly assualt him (for fear of losing him), so he stays parallel to the QB. The problem with the big BCS defensive end is that he's not fast enough to "hawk" the spread QB, and he's already missed the running back on a delayed handoff, so that huge gap between the guard and tackle is an "engineered" anomoly. A creation of the spread mentality; and the death of any 4 man defensive front!

So what do you do?

Let's look at what a former Utah DC would do. Well, I'm telling you what he would do. He would add a sure tackling linebacker to his defensive end grouping! IF THE OFFENSIVE TACKLE FOR UTAH IS GOING TO PEEL OFF AND HIT A LINEBACKER, THEN YOUR DEFENSIVE END MUST BE A FAST AND SURE TACKLER. A man just as fast as the QB! A linebacker body-type.

Bobby Wagner is going to be the new prototypical defensive end, and if the BCS world is watching, then they need to find a "rover" that occupies the offensive tackle for EVERY spread offense they face.

Utah State belongs to a conference that runs 3 and 4 wide recievers on all but one team, so they have to adapt, correctly, to what Utah is offering tonight. The placement of a 217 pound linebacker on the defensive line is a clear indicator of what a man, who has practiced against a spread offense for a decade, would do if he ever coached against a spread.

This little article should serve as a wake-up call for those of you that are dead set on the OVER or on Utah as a 21 point favorite. The defense that will be facing Utah tonight was not good last year; And they still don't have the personell to beat Utah, but PLEASE be aware that the Utah QB will be PROPERLY "hawked". The Aggie defense MUST play a ton of spread defense this year, and the mistake of the past coach was his inability to create the proper stops in his defenses.

This is the beginning of the Utah State revival. In three years they will win the conference. If they do well tonight (meaning if they cover), then the lines will be off for the next few weeks for USU and Utah. Utah is playing a defense that can see them coming. Other defense will still be ignorant.

This is a great game to watch. Please focus on the defensive ends for Utah and Utah State. Look to see if the tackles pull off the ends to hit a linebacker, and also look to see if the ends stay parallel to the QB or if they dive at him.

I'm just a handicapper, but this seems like a veritable petri dish!

I have to edit this today, but I'm posting it now....I apologize if the rough draft is hard to read or if I've made a few errors, but the general point is there.......

bear with me.... :)

If a DB is your leading tackler, then you might stink!

2009-08-31T17:54:00Z

Just A Little Heads Up.

At the end of the 2007 season 25 out of the top 30 individual leaders in TOTAL TACKLES were linebackers. Five of the top 30 were defensive backs (including #4 Will Dunbar of UAB).

UAB was #114 in Total Defense.

The other 4 Defensive backs in the Top 30 in total tackles?

*Jordan Lake of Baylor (#110 in Total Team Defense)

*C.J. Spillman of Marshall (#107 in Total Team Defense)

*Alex Kube of Northern Illinois (#97 in Total Team Defense)

*Davonte Shannon of Buffalo (#72 in Total Team Defense)

My advice?

If the leading defensive tackler on a team is a defensive back, then LOOK OUT!

*UAB had the #4 tackler in the land, and he was a DB, and they gave up 487 yards per game. They gave up an average of 6.5 yards per play. They gave up 4.4 touchdowns per game and went 2-10 that year.

We can expand on this premise by locating the teams that have a high rate of DB tackles. Since the above mentioned teams already stunk on defense. What we can do is seek the higher rates of DB tackles on OVERRATED FAVORITES and, for that matter, overrated Doggies.

This should serve as a red flag in the NFL as well.

You might notice that the absence of Bob Sanders in the Colts defense causes that team to falter? You could see it in Denver, as well, in past seasons. It's a mini capping signal.

Heads up!

Please note that a DB in a "Stack" or "Pressure (man-coverage)" defense will be closer to the line. Nickle packages or Nickle copycats will also inflate a DB's tackle numbers.

Returning Starters Part II: The Defensive Lines are the key!

2009-08-23T15:58:00Z

The defensive line is the lynchpin of every defense.

A strong defensive line will force a weaker offense to utilize their tight ends for blocking assignments. A weak defensive line will allow the TE to run his seam routes. When the TE runs free, then the middle linebacker has to chase him, and this opens up the vulnerable heart of the standard 4-3 defensive allignments.

A strong defensive line forces a fullback, or running back to stay in for protection.

A strong defensive line disrupts the rhythm of the quarterback.

A strong defensive line shortens routes.

A strong defensive line limits what a running back can do.

The best part of a GREAT defensive line is that it "protects" its linebackers in much the same way an offensive line protects their QB. When the linebackers run free, then an offense is compromized. The defensive line is the linchpin of any great defense.

THE MOST UNDERRATED ASPECT OF FOOTBALL HANDICAPPING IS DEFENSIVE LINE EVALUATION.

With that being said, let's look at a weak defense:

Arkansas was the worst defense in the SEC. They allowed 42 touchdowns and 4,500 yards. When you compare it to the 14 touchdowns and 3,100 yards allowed by #1 Tennessee the contrast can be stunning. Why was Arkansas so bad?

You can trace it to the defensive line. This unit is highly undersized with Adrian Davis pushing 250 pounds on one end and two tackles in the 280-290 range. There won't be a pressing need for any offensive line to double team on the inside until Petrino's recruits get settled in. Arkansas was outrushed by almost 60 yards per game last season, and the 2009 version of the Hogs looks just as weak as the 2008 unit.

I mentioned a 250 pound strong side defensive end in Arkansas. He's backed up by a "Sam" Linebacker that weighs 237 pounds and an MLB that weighs 222 pounds.

*What are they going to do when LSU runs a 315 pound right tackle and a 233 pound tailback down their throats? Oh, let me see.....last year LSU ran the ball 44 out of 65 times.

*What are they going to do when they face Alabama's 305 pound senior right tackle? Let's see.....Bama only threw the ball 15 times in the 2008 meeting.....They gained an average of 9.4 yards per carry!

I suppose I'll keep this short by saying:

In most cases....when there is a vast inequality between opposing lines, the gameplan will already be in place for you! SEC teams are no different than any other college team. Their coaches will seek the path of least resistance. FIND THE MASSIVE IMBALANCES AND YOUR JOB WILL BE EASIER.

Also remember: Totals can be assessed with this imbalance in mind. Alabama scored 49 points in that meeting with Arkansas, but they recieved the benefit of 2 interception returns for touchdowns and two huge rushing touchdowns (82 and 67 yards). The 49 points is misleading. MASSIVE LINE IMBALANCES WILL INDUCE TIME CONSUMING DRIVES! (The life gets sucked out of team totals for weaker defensive teams: less possessions for their offense, and a fresher opposing defense.)

This is one facet of football handicapping that occurs less frequently in the NFL, but it pops up all over the board on Saturdays. One can certainly argue that the run sets up the pass, and therefore totals can still rise, but in college the trend toward increased passing due to run success can be less influential.

*Even Tulsa ran the ball 47 times against Arkansas in 2008.

I hope this helps (I may try to find games where imbalances are pronounced).

Kind Regards

Kevin

A Quick Look at Returning Starters: Preseason Value investing

2009-08-17T17:58:00Z

High departure rates within the ranks of NCAA football teams creates an expensive problem for the casual bettor. The preseason information mills are inefficient and unreliable.The general media-darlings guess their way through closed camps and various regional pundits do their best to rate conferences that lie far beyond their comfort zone. The result is a Preseason Top 25 that is absolutely incorrect.

As an example: In 2008, Utah finshed #2 in the AP poll, but they were NOT in the Preseason Top 25. In similar fashion, #7 TCU was not mentioned in the first top 25 rankings of 2008. The same applied to #11 Boise State, #17 Cincinnati, and #18 Oregon State. Alabama finished at #6 but barely scratched the AP Top 25 at the beginning of the season, and they were joined by eventual #8 Penn State.

This failure rate is one of the prime reasons for the massive edge that Vegas commands in the first few months of the season. The media is ill informed; the player departure rates are dramatic; and the available information is sparse, or misleading. THE INFORMATION THAT YOU ARE BEING FED IS NOT RELIABLE IN THE FIRST FEW WEEKS OF THE SEASON. The best Mega-Indicator for this assertion are the foolish predictions of the AP Preseason Rankings.

Seriously folks!

Tennessee, one of the worst BCS offenses in recent memory, was ranked #18 in the 2008 AP Preseason Top 25. Their Western counterpart, Auburn, was ranked #10! Clearly, the smarter and more involved handicappers take complete advantage of this foolishness, but the larger part of the gambling marketplace follows the advice of these press-mavens, so the money falls into the wrong hands.

I have no interest offering a critique of today's sports writers, but I do have a vested interest in telling you that they do not write for you. They aren't constrained by the harsh reality of laying hard currency on their information. If they were, then the preseason Top 25 would look much different. Frankly speaking, all sports writers should also be gamblers. But, alas, they aren't.

With that in mind, let me tell you one way to beat the lack of data. I'll try to show you a way around the detached opinions of 25 year old beat writers and 50 year old hacks.

You can only invest in what you know.

When you look at Big 10 statistics you'll see the following:

In 2002 Penn State returned 8 starters on Offense and they averaged 424 yards per game and finished with a +14 turnover margin.

The following year (2003) Penn State returned 5 starters on offense and they averaged 313 yards per game and finished with a -6 turnover margin.

They returned 5 players on offense in 2006 and gained 350 yards.

They returned 9 players in 2008 and gained 450 yards.

LARGE PLAYER RETURN RATES, ON GOOD UNITS, LEADS TO AN UPTICK IN MEASURABLE PERFORMANCE! Small return rates might lead to a drastic decline.

Go up and down the rankings and you'll see that returning starters make a difference. There's also a "double-whammy" that pertains to teams like Florida. The Gators entire defense returns this year. They only trailed Albama and Tennessee with the 3rd rated defense in the SEC in 2008, so it stands to reason that they should advance to #1 or #2 this year. I've found that teams with highly ranked units that return 9 or more starters turn in repeat (or better) statistical performances in the following year. This is a "measurable" indicator! Let's look at the 2007 and 2008 Oklahoma offenses:

In 2007 Oklahoma Returned 8 offensive starters. They gained a monsterous 449 yards per game and were +8 in the turnover department.

In 2008 they returned 8 offensive starters (and only 5 on defense) and they averaged 548 yards per game and were +23 in total turnovers!

Florida returns 11 on a defense that had 34 sacks and a +22 turnover diferrential in 2008! What will we see in 2009? HMMMMM?

The trick is to think small

I hope I've made it clear that we have value in high player return for teams that had efficient units during the previous season. Most of this seems obvious, especially when I'm using perennial powerhouses to prove my point, but this can be applied to the smaller schools as well. Southern Mississippi is returning almost every player from a defense that became very good over the span of their last 5 games. They might actually do some damage this season as a slight dog in the early games (Virginia and Kansas). So we can take this concept down to the smaller schools, and really find the value in a few underdogs.

But BAD is still BAD no matter what!

Be careful. We need to take returning starters that actually did well. MTSU has 10 offensive starters returning on an ineffective unit. The Blue Raiders averaged 3.1 yards per carry last season and they were #84 in points per game. You need to put a lot of lipstick on that pig, so avoid giving them any relevance unless they prove something. Sometimes, returning the whole squad is not so impressive.

You still have to do the follow-up research; check for injuries; and look for any changes in the lineups due to competition, but here is a list of the teams that appear to be returning the bulk of certain units for 2009. Some of them are good and some of them, like the Arkansas defense, finished at the bottom last year. You must also look for changing systems. Tennessee's defense is usually rock solid, but they've installed a Tampa Cover-2 methodology that relies on reading "keys" and filling "gaps". The Tennessee players may, or may not, fully grasp the system's finer points until mid-season. Eight returning starters on a NEW defense is not the same as 8 starters on a defense that they've had for 3 years.

Here's a list of teams with at least 8 returning starters (injury and attrition are not configured)

SEC

Florida returns 11 starters on defense.

Bama returns 9 starters on defense.

Vandy returns 9 starters on defense. (not a good one)

Arkansas returns 10 starters on defense (not a good one)

Big 10

Minnesota returns 9 on offense

Illinois returns 8 on offense

Big 12

Texas returns 9 on offense

Oklahoma returns 9 on defense

Texas A&M returns 10 on offense

Colorado returns 9 on offense

Iowa State returns 9 on offense

ACC

Wake returns 9 on offense

Virginia Tech returns 8 on offense (-1 for RB injury)

Georgia Tech returns 10 on offense

North Carolina returns 9 on defense

Pac 10

USC returns 9 on offense

UCLA returns 9 on offense

Stanford returns 9 on offense

Washington returns 10 on defense

C-USA

Rice returns 9 on defense

Southern Miss returns 10 on offense and 9 on defense.

ECU returns 9 on offense

UCF returns 9 on offense

UAB returns 11 on offense

WAC

Louisiana Tech and Utah State return 9 on offense.

MAC

Toledo, Eastern Mich, and Akron all retunr 9 on offense.

Central Mich returns 10 on defense.

Temple returns 9 on defense.

Sun Belt Conference

MTSU and FIU return 10 starters on offense.

UL-Monroe returns 9 starters on defense.

Remember: These numbers will be affected by injury and attrition, so make sure you do the follow-up work. Also remember that 10 returning starters on a bad unit is still 10 returning starters on a BAD unit! Although you can still use their bad history as a guide for your wagers. Knowing is half the battle.

Also: If you see that a team on the list has 9 returning starters, but 2 are injured, and 1 was beaten out, then you just have to research the injury replacements and see if there might be a dropoff in terms of talent. The player that was beaten out should be an upgrade.

I hope this helps.

Kevin

COULD THIS BE A GOOD DAY FOR CONTRERAS? YUP.

2009-06-13T16:04:00Z

I am not a fan of Jose or the Sox, but there are times when the construction of a strike zone perfectly suits a questionable pitcher.

Jose has contrived a 1.27 WHIP over his last three starts and he also threw a 1 hitter over 8 innings against Detroit in his last game. Give or take a few lefties, Detroit pushes a lot of power from the right side of the plate (Just like Milwaukee). Jose is a Righty, and Milly is VERY anemic VS Right Handed Pitching. JOSE IS .207 AGAINST RIGHT HANDERS!

So I think we have a primitive set of tangibles that suggest a potentially sluggish scenario for Brewer Bats.

Then we add Andy Fletcher!

For the last three seasons, Andy has not AVERAGED over 8 runs per game. This year he's averaging 6.79 Runs per game. It's mostly bolstered by a 1.1 Home Run Average, but that belies the real truth behind the Fletcher Strike Zone. He's a guy that favors a low zone, ground ball, pitcher..........HMMMMMM?

We only have one RECENT start for Jose in the face of the Fletcher zone, and here it is (May 25, 2008):

Chicago White Sox
Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	ERA
J Contreras	8.0	3	2	2	0	10	1	107-71	3.06

*Almost 70% strikes

*8 innings with only 3 hits.

*10 STRIKEOUTS and NO WALKS......

That's Jose and Fletch dancing together ONE YEAR AGO.

If you add that dynamic to the recent win over the Tigers by Jose, then you MIGHT consider him as a potential strength in an UNDER or in a wager on the Sox. I'm not sure if the shadow still extends between the pitcher and the batter in a 3 PM CST game in Milwaukee, but there is always an advantage for the pitcher in sunny, early games in Brew Town.

I'm just offering this information as a supplement to whatever capping you've already done.

Fade it or follow it...those are the numbers....

NOTE: THERE IS A 2-UNIT PLAY IN THE 30 PLAY PACKAGE

THE GRAND SALAMI REPORT FOR HUMP DAY: UMPS AND BUMPS

2009-06-10T13:10:00Z

THE GRAND SALAMI REPORT FOR HUMP DAY

This report is just a "forecast" of potential outcomes, based on a few simple indicators. It might save you a few minutes of research if I post some of this for you.

We have 15 games today and 6 of those games have some of the meanest OVER Umpires calling the shots.

Angel Hernandez is "influencing" the Nationals game tonight. He's the guy that screwed up the Tampa/Cleveland game. It's the one whereTampa was up 10-2 in the bottom of the 8th. The Game ended 10-11 as Cleveland strolled across the plate 9 times over the last 2 frames. If you'll remember, the Tampa starter had to get out of several jams in the first few innings, and Carmona was NOT getting any strikes. That game could have hit even higher than 21 runs.

Hernandez has a 1.58 K/BB ratio coupled with a nice 2.2 HR per game, so you can see why the total just jumped from 8.5 to 9 runs on the Total.

Randy Marsh is calling the Phillies game, and if you think Hernandez has a low K/BB ratio, then look at Marsh's Rate: 1.36

Randy Marsh walks almost as many batter as he strikes out (12/9), but he has a low HR number so it's never a slam dunk on the total. If you'll notice, Pelfrey stunk it up in his last start and his k/BB ratio is alarming, so you can assume that the Phils, who bat .271 against Pelfrey will fully take advantage of Marsh's deadly strike zone.

Neutral Umpire in the Cards game.

Sam Holbrook is traditionally one of the meaner OVER LORDS, but he seems to have molded to the leage mandated strike zone. In past years he's hurt the ground baller and that would mean that Volstad and Wainwright might not get the lower end of the zone. Both men may have a lack of rhythm, but the numbers on Holbrook don't mirror is stats from the previous years, so there's no way to see if this is a NEW Holbrook, or if he might suddenly snap back to an OVER UMP. It's hard to say where he stands.

Paul Schreiber is calling the Astros game, and this won't help the control issues of Wandy Rodriguez. Schrieber is allowing 9 walks per game; almost 11 runs; and has a 1.65 K/BB Ratio (OVER).

Max Scherzer and Arizona coughed up 6 runs to the Padres in Schreiber's last game....AT PETCO!

Cole Hamels and Philly choked up 6 runs to Schreiber just a few weeks ago.

Gerry Davis is calling the Yankees Game. He used to be a DEADLY OVER UMPIRE, and he still sits on a 61% strike rate and averages almost 11 runs per game, so you can bank on the fact that Wang won't get a FREE PASS today, ok?

Surprizingly: Wakefield has done will in this strike zone over the years, and it probably has to do with the fact that he CAN pitch to contact, while Wang has to go low to the zone for success.

The Red Sox have scored 6 runs in EACH of their last three games with Davis.

It seems like the Sox are the play here in terms of history.....both teams are patient at the plate, so the 11 on the total is do-able.

Derryl "Shoebox" Cousins rounds out our OVER Umpires. He's in the Detroit game today. His zone shrinks as the game progresses, especially if he's ahead in the pitch count. Generally, he's more neutral, but he can blow up a total in the middle innings so he's always dangerous.

His 1.40 K/BB ratio is one of the scariest indicators for a pitcher!

Detroit scored 11 runs on the Yankees last week with this very same UMP!

More in a moment.....

There is a Side posted in the 30 Play Package as well........

2-Unit Total is posted in the 30 Play Package....WIN

2009-05-18T16:35:00Z

Note: I just posted the pick alert over my old Blog so that I wouldn't take up space in the Forum:

I'd like to apologize for not posting plays, but it wasn't out of some innate need to screw anyone.

I've been privately running a 45% win rate (which is not marketable, and not what I'm accustomed to), and it's taken me two weeks to get back on track. Two weeks ago I realized that a sizeable chunk of my system was completely out of whack. The Umpires were operating as if they've gone mad. Let me show you what I mean:

UNDER UMPS under the influence?

Jeff Nelson, Doug Eddings, and Mark Wegner are known as three of the biggest UNDER umpires in the history of the game. EVERY YEAR these guys push games UNDER with their massive strike zones.

BUT this season they are 16-5 OVER

OVER Umpires?

Holbrook, Meriwether, and Chad Fairchild are traditional OVER umpires, and they are currently 8-12 UNDER.

I'm not trying to make excuses, but I would like you to know that I've rebuilt the system by REDUCING THE UMPIRE'S EFFECT on my capping. The new strike zone tracking systems used by the MLB have apparently altered the casual way an umpire calls a game. In fact, I think the guys that have been targeted by MLB management (specifically Jeff Nelson and Doug Eddings for their oversized zones) are altering their zones dramatically.

Also: I've noticed that games with high run totals in the early innings are seeing a halt in scoring.

Oakland and Detroit had a score of 11-7 in the 5th inning yesterday. Noone scored another run for the rest of the game.

In the Cleveland game yesterday there were 12 runs by the 5th and no more for the rest of the game.

On Saturday, in AL games that saw big run totals in the first 5 innings, (3 games) THERE WERE 3 RUNS SCORED OVER 14 INNINGS IN THOSE 3 GAMES. And 3 of the 6 teams in that group have some of the worst relievers in baseball right now! Call it what you like, but the strike zones expanded in those games after the run totals went through the roof in the early innings. Another thing regarding two of those games: most teams don't waste their good relievers in a blowout (and still no runs were scored in the late innings!).

I'm not making accusations or excuses, but it's been a shock to a system that relied on the predictable nature of the UMPIRE. I corrected this by reducing the role of the Umpire in the my system and replaced him with better, and more reliable indicators. I feel pretty good about the last few days, and I believe we can start rolling out the plays.

I deeply apologize for the slow start to the 30 play package, but I didn't want to risk your money until I got a handle on what was happening. The plays will begin rolling out daily starting tomorrow, so please keep an eye out for the releases if you have the package.

Call me what you want to call me, but I NEVER throw out picks unless I'm certain that I have a handle on the games. Frankly speaking, the 30 play package is 0-3-1 (-5.50 units), but it would be closer to 13-17 if I just kept throwing out plays druring the past 4 weeks. I hope my reasoning makes sense, and I'm very eager to get on with the season! Once again, sorry for the slow start.

THE CRAPPY PITCHER INDEX: Glen Perkins

2009-05-07T18:26:00Z

Please be careful with Perkins of Minnesota!

Perkins is a rare Left Hander who can't pitch to Left Handed batters. His average for the season on the Left is .368 and a quick double-check on his splits from last year indicate that he was almost as bad in 2008 (.352 BA)

But what about the Leftists for Balto?

Roberts, Huff, and Markakis are 11 for 13 as far as reaching the bags with Perkins going 8-13 on hits and it appears that Markakis walked 3 times. The Oriole batters that have faced Perkins went to bat 24 times and reached base on 14 of those at bats.

Here's the batting order for Balto from last night, REMEMBER THAT CAMDEN YARDS IS A BALLPARK THAT FAVORS A LEFTY, WITH THE SHORTEST WALL IN RIGHT FIELD. So it favors a left hander. Add the factt hat Perkins stinks VS Left handers and you tell me what this means:

Switch, Right, Left, Left, Right, Left, Switch, Left, Switch

And maybe this is why Perkins looked so bad in his last meeting IN Baltimore:

Minnesota Twins
Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	ERA
G Perkins	3.0	5	6	6	2	2	1	61-40	4.40

61 pitches...3 innnings....6 Runs.... (Sept 08)

He went 4 innings....9 hits...5 Runs in an earlier meeting in Minny, by the way.....

So we have his tendencies, the perfect line-up, and a history of failure, right?

And we have a Massive OVER Umpire.

Randy Marsh averages 12 strikeouts and 11 walks per game, and last year he averaged 11 runs per game. And he is...HISTORICALLY...one of the top OVER Mongers in the majors.

Recent Games:

Sabathia and Guthrie hit 15 runs

Halladay and Lee Hit 9

Ubaldo Jimenez and his team allowed 6 runs to LA.

You have a GREEN light on the Baltimore Team Total to go OVER 5

If you feel safe with Bergesen and that mediocre Balto pen, then take +175 on the Balto RL. Don't take the UNDER in any scenario, although we have a lot of Righties coming up for Minny.

Personally: I took Balto OVER 5 -125

Things have been kinda weird this year, but I thought you might like to see the stars alligning on this matchup.

The King Maker: Vulnerable Teams for Monday

2009-05-04T14:40:00Z

Vulnerable Teams for Monday

Toronto

Tallet imploded against KC in his last outing, and the key here is that he has not gotten past the 6th inning against anyone this year. Word on the street is that teams are dialing in on him, and that doesn't bode well for a guy that tends to exhaust 93 pitches by the 5th. Fourteen of 26 Royal batters reached base, THAT'S A SIGN THAT YOU MUST NOT TAKE THE JAYS.

But we can look at the Bullpen: We need to have Downs on our list, but he's thrown for three consecutive days, so don't expect to see him tossing tonight. He owns the Indians, and he's useless to us tonight. The rest of the available pen for the Jays is NOT strong against the Tribe (2 of them are young kids and the rest of them hover around a .300 Batting Average VS Cleveland).

THERE IS NO REASON TO FEEL CONFIDANT ABOUT TOTONTO'S PITCHING STAFF TONIGHT.

Kansas City:

I don't think I would fade Grienke at this stage of the game. His numbers don't deserve any harsh words. But Chicago sat a few guys last night, and most of that batting order has ripped Zack during his tenure in the league.

Here's a few Sox batters VS Zack:

Dye (Hand): .389 BA

Podsednik: .450 BA

Pierzynski: .357 BA

Thome: .970 OPS

Quientin: .300 BA/1.400 OPS

Betimit: .500 (tiny sample)

Wise: 1.000 OPS (small sample)

The "sight lines" must be good...the scouting reports must be VERY good. Just be careful..........

I'll try to find more as the day passes........I'll wait on lineups at 6 PM before I wager any money.

KING MAKER SYSTEM PLAY: SHOOT The Indian if you like.... LOSS

2009-05-02T14:50:00Z

Embrace an Indian if you can!

Laffey Should be able to hold Detroit down

Backing Cleveland is never a happy experience, but sometimes you have to go with the facts and let it ride.

The Backside?

Yeah Cleveland has one of the worst bullpens in recent memory, but I'm almost certain that Perez will be replaced by a little known lefty named Tony Sipp (3 innings 6K's and 1 Walk), and I think we might luck out, and see Chulk taking the place of either Lewis or Betancourt.

Wood should close the game in a tight spot. So we may have a surprizing pen if Wedge doesn't screw it up.

Cleveland owns the battle between the bullpens in this game, so it's amazing, we have a slight edge if they get Sipp in there instead of Perez! This is a razor thin hope, and it's why I didn't step out an make this a package play, but we do have the edge, ok?

Among the Starters?

Laffey is in a GREAT spot here. I know this is Detroit, but everything sets up nicely. Laz Diaz is our umpire and he supports Aaron's location zones with a low-end strike zone. Laffey helped Cleveland beat the Rays last season in a 13-2 mauling with Laz behind the plate! The other interesting overlap (one I really don't use much) is that Diaz has seen Cleveland win the last 4 games umped by him and the scoring differential was 27-3 (including a 5-0 win over the Tigers).......also.....Detroit was 0-3 with Diaz in 2008.

Miner is throwing the sinkerball, so he may survive, but he's not throwing strikes very well, and sat below 50% on his K-Rate in the last outing. AND CLEVELAND HAS SHOWN A DEFINITE PROPENSITY TO DRILL MINER (.357 BA/ .961 OPS)

When looking at Laffey: We see that he actually handles Detroit: The sample is small, but it's .211 for the BA.

He's a Lefty and Detroit can smack them around, so we have to be very wary here, ok?

Side note:

Zach Miner's Daytime Era is 21.20

Laffey's Daytime Era is 3.06

Now why does Laffy have a shot here?

He cycled through the Tiger line-up for almost 7 innings last season and averaged 14.7 pitches per inning. He was inducing pop ups and grounders all day, and this is significant, becuase it hints of an inability for the Tiger batters to see his release points. WE HAVE A GROUND BALL UMPIRE CALLING THE SHOTS TODAY, and he's a CONTACT UMP.....so we have to consider the possibility that this game can go Under, but I think the game has a better calling on the Indian side of the equasion.

Why is Laffey Vulnerable?

Guys: He can't throw his slider on the Right Handers. The slider is unhittable, so any Lefty is actually in serious trouble, but the Right handers can tee-off on his Fastball, so this is why the RHB power in that Tiger order are somewhat dangerous. This is another reason to be cautious on playing this game.

BUT

I have to go with Laz Diaz as an added bonus and a King Maker for Laffey, because Aaron actually tore apart Detroit last year with a MONSTEROUS OVER UMPIRE....And now he has a friend behind the plate, so he can run that second rate fast ball on the edge against the right handers, and believe it or not, Ordonez, Inge, Guillen, Polanco, Raburn (faces Lefties), and Cabrera all drop in AVERAGE toward the .250's to .270's range on that low-outside corner!

Look for Laffey to spot that low outside on the Right Handers....if he drifts up, then he might have trouble, but he has the green light to keep it low, so we have a shot here!

I'm personally playing the Tribe +105 today.....

The package will begin to roll out starting tomorrow.......hopefully..

I'm giving you my take on this game, so do what you like with the information.